Factorio on Mars

It takes 100,000 years if it can be done at all.

Introduction

Remember the Mars One Project, the precursor to Elon Musk’s hollow promises of building a self-sustaining city on Mars?

Mars One Project[en.wikipedia.org]

It asked for too little money ($6 billion) and allocated too little area for food production. It also attracted one applicant who thought she could walk on the Martian surface and breathe in the fresh air. Martian air is mostly very cold and very thin carbon dioxide. Its atmospheric density is 1% of Earth’s. Ultimately, Mars One declared bankruptcy. Their mockup of the Martian colony displays a line of habitation modules sitting on the surface.

The real challenge isn’t to merely make one city on Mars self-sufficient. To make that city self-sufficient, you have to make the entire planet self-sufficient. Terraforming Mars will take about 100,000 years and demand materials, processes, and equipment that have yet to be invented. You can’t simply build a SpaceX Starship, load it up with colonists, and have it safely touchdown on the surface to get the ball rolling.

Restart The Magnetic Field

Mars has been without a magnetic shield for four billion years. Solar winds have stripped the atmosphere to a near vacuum since then. As the atmospheric pressure dropped, the surface water boiled away and escaped into space. Restoring the magnetic shield is a monumental task but failing to do so will greatly limit the mobility of future colonists and what can be accomplished on the surface. On Mars, your body will soak in 8 rads per year. On Earth, you will soak in only 0.62 rads per year. Radiation levels are further exacerbated by solar proton events which can peak at 20 rads.

Prolonged radiation exposure may result in acute sickness, risk of cancer, genetic damage, or premature death. Until the magnetic shield returns, colonists will be forced to live most of their lives at least one meter underground. An underground colony can’t be independent of Earth. The need for spare parts alone would be enormous. The colony would require a nearly continuous train of supply vessels launched at regular intervals from Earth. There is no telling what could go wrong with either the colony or the supply train. The best defense against catastrophic failure is redundancy.

In any case, restarting the magnetic shield using the planet’s inner cores won’t be easy if it can be done at all:

Why The Magnetic Shield Failed[www.universetoday.com]

Enrich The Atmosphere

The atmosphere must be rebuilt using a thick blanket of carbon dioxide. This will raise surface temperatures, and the carbon dioxide can be consumed by plants. Eventually, the plants will introduce oxygen and nitrogen. This will greatly expand the area available for food production. Before then, you will have to get by on algae, supply rations, and human cadavers. When humans can at last walk around on the surface unassisted by space suits, fauna can be introduced.

Where would all this carbon dioxide come from? Some CO2 can be released from the polar caps. The vast bulk would have to be delivered from Venus. Venus has an atmosphere 115 times thicker than Earth’s. The deliveries would have to be both large and frequent enough to outpace the effects of our system's solar wind. It would amount to a gargantuan round-the-clock effort lasting many years.

I mention Titan's methane problem below. It appears Mars presents air quality challenges too:

Mars Dust[futurism.com]

Shocker! Elon Musk Is Clueless Again![futurism.com]

Deliver The Water

Some water is still frozen beneath the Martian soil. This will be extracted by colonists long before the Martian environment is transformed. More water is locked up in the polar ice caps. Most of the water needed will have to arrive from Earth. Consider Europa, an icy moon orbiting Jupiter that is so radioactive that it glows. You will die if you spend a month there. You must dig under the surface and strip away the non-radioactive ice. A trip from Mars to Jupiter takes about five years and three months. A trip to Earth takes only nine months.

Deliver The Payloads

Reaching the surface intact is a formidable challenge, especially for the heavy payloads required by a full-fledged colony. The thin air limits your braking options as you approach the surface. It is also not as easy a feat as a moon touchdown. The moon has only 16% of the Earth’s gravity (1.625 m/s acceleration). Mars has 38% of the Earth's gravity (3.72076 m/s acceleration). The near-vacuum atmosphere, mid-range gravity, and heavy payloads will make deliveries to the surface a daunting task.

Seven Minutes Of Terror

Build A Colony

Any colony needs to be buried under a meter of soil or constructed inside a cave to shield it from radiation. The earth-moving equipment would have to be powered by non-combustible energy sources. You can add all the lithium-ion batteries you want, but they add weight that limits what a vehicle can do. Standard lithium-ion batteries don’t hold up well in cold conditions. Rovers Opportunity and Spirit required advanced lithium-ion batteries that can withstand cold temperatures and deliver high wattage. The average Martian surface temperature is -80 degrees Fahrenheit or -60 degrees Celsius. Both rovers weigh 384 pounds and use solar arrays for recharges. A bulldozer weighs between 20 to 30 tons. A front-end loader equipped with a backhoe clocks in at around 5400 pounds. Recharging their batteries using solar arrays is impractical. Solar irradiance amounts to 590 W/m2 on Mars compared to 1000 W/m2 on Earth. The Mars Curiosity rover weighs 1,982 pounds and relies on a generator powered by the decay of plutonium dioxide. However, hydrogen has three times the energy density (120 MJ/kg) of either gasoline or diesel and works well in cold weather. Hydrogen fuel cell engines are the future of Martian construction and transport vehicles.

Concrete on Mars can be produced without water. Sulfur is heated to 240 degrees Celsius and combined with Martian soil.

Be One With The Planet

Until the Martian biome matches Earth’s, colonists will require yeast and yogurt from Earth to maintain a healthy intestinal microbiome.

Low gravity makes for a weaker Martian. Your heart gets smaller, your bones become more brittle, and your malignant intestinal flora thrives.

Life underground means you need enough artificial sunlight to help you manufacture vitamin D. Sunlight improves psychological well-being and strengthens your immune system. Getting the sunlight you need on the surface will be almost impossible. You have to wear a pressurized space suit that is being bombarded by ultraviolet radiation. Sunlight on Mars is only 43% as bright as it is on Earth.

Isolation is a big problem. Being cooped up with the same small group of colonists for possibly the rest of your life gets old quickly. Boredom is another pressing problem. Boredom leads to drama and drama leads to violence and acts of stupidity. Colonists will require a constant stream of activities and entertainment delivered from Earth.

Law and order may be reduced to direct democracy. Examples of direct democracy include things like lynchings and riots. If enough people decide to take action outside of due process and individual rights, that’s democracy! Democracy is not a republic governed by proxies elected to public office on our behalf.

Scarcity will have to be introduced through strict rationing. Otherwise, your resources can be plundered by anyone.

Anyone joining the colony will have their appendix removed and be sterilized before arrival. You can’t have your colony grow out of control.

If you enjoy the rugged outdoor terrain, you’ll find some things to keep you occupied:

8 Cool Destinations That Future Mars Tourists Could Explore[www.space.com]

Liberate The Masses

After 100,000 years, Martians can anticipate the possibility of living independently of Earth, provided they don’t destroy the environment they meticulously erected. Finally, Elon’s silly notion of a self-sufficient city on Mars becomes a reality.

Remember Titan

Saturn’s moon Titan has also been mentioned as a possible refuge for humanity.

Titan lacks a magnetic shield and can’t be terraformed. It is cold enough to turn methane into a liquid state. The heavy smog will obscure Saturn most of the time.

Titan's Surface

Titan presents explorers with a unique problem. Usually, the goal beyond Earth is to keep things contained inside your spacecraft or habitat. The goal on Titan would be a constant need to keep things out. Methane can replace oxygen and suffocate you. It has no smell or color to give away its presence. Methane is also flammable. The only way to guard against it is by using air monitors and a filtration system. Also, Titan’s atmosphere can hold an incredible amount of moisture before it is released as precipitation. This would dwarf any comparable Earth flood event.

Still, it does have its charms. Dust devils dance across the surface. The thick atmosphere and low gravity mean you could strap on wings and take flight.

Overall, though, Titan is far less friendly than Mars.