Metaphor's Math Monstrosity

Detailing how Metaphor calculates damage, accuracy, crit rates, etc.

Introduction

I have no introduction. I do have math though.

Base Damage (Part 1)

Begin by converting your Weapon's Attack into a "True Weapon Attack" using the formula below

True Weapon Attack = ⌊ Displayed Weapon Attack x Archetype Modifier ⌋ x Sense of Kinship 

Where "Archetype Modifier" is 0.85 for most archetypes, 0.9 for Prince, and 1.0 for enemies.

also your combined Armor/Gear Defense into a "True Armor Defense" using the formula below

True Armor Defense = (Displayed Armor Defense + Displayed Gear Defense) x Ironclad Bond 

If the skill "Sense of Kinship" is equipped on the attacker, apply one of the below multipliers depending on the number of allies in the same lineage as the attacker, including the attacker themselves. Do the same for "Ironclad Bond" on the defender.

Allies in Matching Lineage	Sense of Kinship/Ironclad Bond
1	1.1
2	1.2
3	1.3
4	1.5

From this point the formula differs depending on if the attacker is a player or an enemy. Note that enemies have equipment just like players do.

Players

Next, True Weapon Attack is turned into "True Attack" by combining it with the skill's power, done as described below.

Condition	True Attack
Basic Attack	True Weapon Attack
Skill	0.9 x True Weapon Attack + 1.3 x Skill Power + Magic Power Factor

"Skill Power" is a constant value tied to the skill used in most cases, however there are 2 exceptions

Skills with "Power proportional to caster's remaining HP." have their power multiplied by the attacker's current HP (before paying the HP cost of the skill), then divided by the attacker's max HP, rounded down.

Lucky Slash has a unique behavior that produces variance. The below values are what Lucky Slash uses, depending on RNG

Condition	Lucky Slash Power (as multiplier to 180)	Lucky Slash Power (after applying multiplier)
RNG produces 0	0.5	90
RNG produces 1	1.0	180
RNG produces 2	1.2	216
RNG produces 3 OR Equipment with "Improves skills with random effects."	2.0	360

Meanwhile "Magic Power Factor" is a value determined proportionally to the user's Magic stat. This is only used for skills that scale off Magic, so Strength-based skills use 0 for that value. These are the values used based on the attacker's Magic stat for magic (use the highest one that corresponds to a magic value lower than the attacker's magic)

Magic Stat	Magic Power Factor
0	0
10	5
30	10
50	15
70	20
90	30

"True Attack" is then turned into the base "Initial Power" by performing the following operation

Initial Power = True Attack - 0.5 x True Armor Defense

Initial Power is set to 10 if it would be a value less than 10.

The next major step is to create a "Stat Multiplier", which is done using the following method

Stat Multiplier = (Offense Correction x Attacker Offense - 0.5 x Defender Endurance) x 0.01 + 1

"Attacker Offense" and "Offense Correction" are dependent on what stat the attack scales off of, using the below values

Attacker Offense	Offense Correction
Strength	1.8
Magic	1.7

"Raw Damage" when the player attacks is calculated as

Raw Damage = Initial Power x Stat Multiplier

Enemies

Next, True Weapon Attack is turned into "True Attack" by combining it with the skill's power, done as described below.

Condition	True Attack
Basic Attack	0.5 x True Weapon Attack
Skill	0.5 x True Weapon Attack + Skill Power

And then turned into the base "Offense Value" by performing the following operation

Offense Value = True Attack x Attacker Offense

"Attacker Offense" is just Strength for basic attacks and physical skills, and Magic for magic skills.

The "Defense Value" used depends on what kind of attack is being used

Condition	Defense Value
Basic Attack	1.35 x Defender Endurance + 0.9 x True Armor Defense
Skill	0.36 x Defender Offense + 0.675 x Defender Endurance + 0.9 x True Armor Defense

"Defender Offense" is just Strength for physical skills, and Magic for magic skills.

"Raw Damage" when an enemy attacks is calculated as

Raw Damage = 2 x √(30 x Offense Value / Defense Value)

Base Damage (Part 2)

Universal

A few more "Correction" values are still needed for this step of damage calculation.

"Weakness Correction" is determined by the target's resistance to the attack. The defaults are

Resistance Level	Weakness Correction
Resist	0.5
Neutral	1.0
Weak	1.5
Weak Equipment with "Reduces the damage from being hit by your weakness."	1.0
Weak Equipment with "Significantly reduces the damage from being hit by your weakness."	0.8
Any Target has Hex Skill used is Dark	3.0

However "Resist", "Neutral", and "Weak" can be any number of values for enemies, determined arbitrarily on an enemy-by-enemy and affinity-by-affinity basis, though deviations from the defaults are rare.

	Resist	Neutral	Weak
Default	0.5	1.0	1.5
	0.4	1.5	1.8
	0.3	2.0	2.0
	0.2	3.0	3.0
	0.1

"Level Correction" is determined by the difference in level between the attacker and the defender

Attacker Level - Defender Level	Level Correction (Normal)	Level Correction (Boss)
≤ -16	0.5	1
-15	0.55	1
-14	0.6	1
-13	0.65	1
-12	0.7	1
-11	0.75	1
-10	0.79	1
-9	0.83	1
-8	0.87	1
-7	0.91	1
-6	0.95	1
-5	0.97	1
-4	0.99	1
-3	1	1
-2	1	1
-1	1	1
0	1	1
1	1.05	1.05
2	1.1	1.1
3	1.15	1.15
4	1.2	1.2
5	1.25	1.25
6	1.3	1.3
7	1.35	1.35
8	1.4	1.4
9	1.45	1.45
10	1.5	1.5
11	1.5	1.6
12	1.5	1.7
13	1.5	1.8
14	1.5	1.9
15	1.5	2
16	1.5	2.1
17	1.5	2.2
18	1.5	2.3
19	1.5	2.4
20	1.5	2.5
21	1.5	2.6
22	1.5	2.7
23	1.5	2.8
24	1.5	2.9
≥ 25	1.5	3.0

"Row Correction" is a multiplier specific to whether the attacker is in the front row or back row. Note that enemies are always treated as being in the front row. Row Correction is 1 x the product of all that apply.

Row Condition	Row Correction
Attacker is in the Back Row Skill is "Melee"	0.5
Defender's entire party is in the Back Row "Protective Formation" Follower ability unlocked	0.5
Defender is in the Back Row	0.8
Attacker is in the Front Row Equipment with "While in the front row, increases Attack."	1.2
Defender is in the Back Row Equipment with "While in the back row, increases Defence." *	0.5

*Skill is entirely unused.

"Row Correction" is skipped for all forms of friendly fire.

"Multihit Correction" is a divisor applied to multihit skills that is simply equal to the skill's highest possible hit count. For example, on a 2-4 hit skill "Multihit Correction" would be 4. On an 8 hit skill "Multihit Correction" would be 8.

The attack's base damage is calculated as

Base Damage = ⌊ ⌊ Raw Damage x Weakness Correction x Level Correction x Row Correction ⌋ / Multihit Correction ⌋

For Plunder Life, which drains HP proportionally to damage dealt, set Base Damage to the target's remaining HP if Base Damage would be higher than it.
Base Damage is set to 1 if it would be a value less than 1.

Modifying Damage (Part 1)

Once Base Damage has been obtained from the previous section, there's a series of modifiers to apply to it.

Some game mechanics exist that modify damage dealt, those are listed below

Mechanic	Multiplier
Guard	0.5
Critical Hit No equipment with "Doubles critical hit damage."	1.5
Critical Hit Equipment with "Doubles critical hit damage."	3.0

The "Difficulty Multiplier" is as follows

Difficulty Multiplier = Base Difficulty Multiplier x Critical Difficulty Multiplier x Weakness Difficulty Multiplier

The components of which are

Difficulty	Base Difficulty Multiplier (Player)	Base Difficulty Multiplier (Enemy)	Critical Difficulty Multiplier (Enemy Only)	Weakness Difficulty Multiplier (Enemy Only)
Storyteller	2.0	0.5	1.0	1.0
Easy	1.5	0.5	1.0	1.0
Normal	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Hard	0.8	1.5	1.0	1.0
Regicide	0.8	1.75	2.0	3.0

The "Buff Multiplier" is as follows

Buff Multiplier = Attack Multiplier x Defense Multiplier x Focus Multiplier

The components of which are

Stage	Attack Multiplier (Tarukaja)	Defense Multiplier (Rakukaja)	Focus Multiplier (Charge and Hyper)
-3	0.6	1.4
-2	0.7	1.3
-1	0.8	1.2
0	1.0	1.0	1.0
1	1.2	0.8	2.25
2	1.3	0.7
3	1.4	0.6

"Ailment Multiplier" is a multiplier to damage dealt or taken that's conditioned on either the Attacker or the Defender having the ailment

Ailment Multiplier = Attacker Ailment Multiplier Product x Defender Ailment Multiplier Product

Ailment	Attacker Ailment Multiplier	Defender Ailment Multiplier
Frostbite	0.5	1.0
Rage	2.0	2.0

"Attack Multiplier" is a multiplier to damage dealt based on a special property of the attack used

Property	Attack Multiplier
Skill Used has one of "Increases damage against human-type monsters." or "Damage boosted against human-type monsters."	1.5
Skill used has "Increased damage against those afflicted with Anxiety" also Trial of the Seeker for some reason	1.5

Modifying Damage (Part 2)

The majority of passive skills that modify damage are "Additive" damage boosts. This means that the damage increase is equal to

Additive Multiplier = 1 + (sum of additive damage boosts) / 100

The following damage increases are additive

Passive Skill/Effect	Condition	Additive Damage Boost
<element> Boost Equipment with "Increases <element> attack strength."	Attack using <element>	20
<element> Surge Equipment with "Significantly increases <element> attack strength."	Attack using <element>	30
Magic Boost Equipment with "Increases strength of all magic."	Attack using Magic	15
Magic Surge Equipment with "Significantly increases strength of all magic."	Attack using Magic	25
Front Boost	User is in Front Row Self or ally in Front Row is attacking Attack using Physical skill	10
Back Boost	User is in Back Row Self or ally in Back Row is attacking Attack using Magic	10
Short-Range Boost	Attack using a skill while in Front Row	10
Long-Range Boost	Attack using a skill while in Back Row	10
Martial Lore	Attack using Basic Attack	50
Revenge Seeker	Attack using a skill	⌈100 x (1 - Current HP / Max HP)⌉
Heat Up	Attack using Physical skill	Same Lineage Allies (including self) Additive 1 10 2 15 3 20 4 30
Magic Circle	Attack using Magic	Same Lineage Allies (including self) Additive 1 10 2 15 3 20 4 30
Arcane Unity	Attack using Synthesis	10
Equipment with "Increases the cost and strength of money skills."	Attack with a skill that (by default) costs money to use	100
Equipment with "Greatly increases the cost and strength of money skills."	Attack with a skill that (by default) costs money to use	200
Equipment with "Increases the strength of Synthesis skills that cost 0 MP."	Attack using Free Juggling or Miracle Cirque	50
Equipment with "Significantly increases the strength of Synthesis skills that cost 0 MP."	Attack using Free Juggling or Miracle Cirque	100
Equipment with "Increases damage when breaking through resistance."	Attack using a skill that "Ignores resistances." Target would Resist/Null/Repel/Drain the skill if it didn't ignore resistances.	50
Front Surge *	User is in Front Row Self or ally in Front Row is attacking Attack using Physical skill	15
Back Surge *	User is in Back Row Self or ally in Back Row is attacking Attack using Magic	15

*skill is entirely unused

Beyond just the Additive Multiplier, there's a number of passive skills that apply independent multipliers, grouped together as

Passive Multiplier Product = 1 x (product of all independent multipliers from passives)

the below passives are independent multipliers

Passive Skill/Effect	Condition	Independent Multiplier
Sturdy Stance	Take damage	0.5
Noble Resolve	Take damage during an ambush	0.5
Equipment with "Increases damage against <enemy type>-type monsters."	Attack a target that is <enemy type>	1.5
Equipment with "Increases the MP cost and strength of Synthesis."	Attack using Synthesis that costs a non-zero amount of MP	2.0
Short-Range Surge *	Attack while in Front Row	1.5
Long-Range Surge *	Attack while in Back Row	1.5
Equipment with "Increases damage against enemies with Anxiety." *	Target Has Anxiety	1.5

*skill is entirely unused

To get the actual "Average Damage", combine the multipliers

Average Damage = ⌊ Base Damage x Guard x Critical Hit x Difficulty Multiplier x Buff Multiplier x Ailment Multiplier x Attack Multiplier x Additive Multiplier x Passive Multiplier Product ⌋

If Average Damage is 99,999 or greater, the final damage value is set to 99,999.

If Average Damage is 99,998 or less, the next step is to apply damage ranges. This can be any whole % of Average Damage from 95% to 105% (so 95% and 96% are both possible, but 95.5% isn't) selected at random, then rounded down.

Finally, if the final damage value is less than 1, it is instead 1.

Random Hit Count Weights

It's mentioned in-game that Luck influences the number of times multi-hit skills hit. In actuality the game generates a skip chance using

Skip Chance = ⌊ Attacker Agility / 10 + Attacker Luck / 20 ⌋

If Skip Chance would be greater than 10%, it is instead 10%.

Skip Chance is the percentage chance the game skips hit count randomization and gives the max number of hits. If the game randomizes the hit count, then all values from the minimum hit count to the maximum hit count are equally likely.

The vast majority of skills with a random hit count have a range from their minimum hit count to their minimum hit count + 2. For those skills, here's what the odds of each hit count look like based on the value of Skip Chance

Skip Chance	Min Hits	Min Hits + 1	Min Hits + 2	Average Hits
0%	33.33%	33.33%	33.33%	Min Hits + 1
1%	33%	33%	34%	Min Hits + 1.01
2%	32.67%	32.67%	34.67%	Min Hits + 1.02
3%	32.33%	32.33%	35.33%	Min Hits + 1.03
4%	32%	32%	36%	Min Hits + 1.04
5%	31.67%	31.67%	36.67%	Min Hits + 1.05
6%	31.33%	31.33%	37.33%	Min Hits + 1.06
7%	31%	31%	38%	Min Hits + 1.07
8%	30.67%	30.67%	38.67%	Min Hits + 1.08
9%	30.33%	30.33%	39.33%	Min Hits + 1.09
10%	30%	30%	40%	Min Hits + 1.1

The skills Wild Barrage and Wild Salvo instead hit 2-3 times, below is what their odds look like at each Skip Chance

Skip Chance	2 Hits	3 Hits	Average Hits
0%	50%	50%	2.5
1%	49.5%	50.5%	2.505
2%	49%	51%	2.51
3%	48.5%	51.5%	2.515
4%	48%	52%	2.52
5%	47.5%	52.5%	2.525
6%	47%	53%	2.53
7%	46.5%	53.5%	2.535
8%	46%	54%	2.54
9%	45.5%	54.5%	2.545
10%	45%	55%	2.55

Healing

Begin by converting your Weapon's Attack into a "True Weapon Attack" using the formula below

True Weapon Attack = ⌊ Displayed Weapon Attack x Archetype Modifier ⌋ x Sense of Kinship 

Where "Archetype Modifier" is 0.85 for most archetypes, 0.9 for Prince, and 1.0 for enemies.

If the skill "Sense of Kinship" is equipped on the attacker, apply one of the below multipliers depending on the number of allies in the same lineage as the attacker, including the attacker themselves.

Allies in Matching Lineage	Sense of Kinship
1	1.1
2	1.2
3	1.3
4	1.5

From there the base healing is calculated like this for players

Base Healing = ⌊ True Weapon Attack x 0.45 + Skill Power x 1.3 + Magic Healing Factor ⌋

Meanwhile base healing is calculated like this for enemies

Base Healing = ⌊ True Weapon Attack x 0.5 + Skill Power + Magic Healing Factor x 0.6 ⌋

"Skill Power" is the power value of the healing skill being used.

"Magic Healing Factor" is a value derived from the skill user's Magic stat, based on the below lookup table (use only the highest applicable one)

Minimum Magic Value	Magic Healing Factor
1	0
10	5
20	10
35	15
50	20
65	25
75	30
85	35
90	40
95	50

Very few multipliers are applied to healing, with only the following to consider

Skill/Effect	Condition	Passive Multiplier
Arcane Unity	Healing Skill is Synthesis	1.1
Godly Blessing		1.5

The "Average Healing" is

Average Healing = ⌊ Base Healing x Passive Multiplier Product ⌋

If Average Healing is 99,999 or greater, the final healing value is set to 99,999 (though this is irrelevant, as there's no method in game to achieve more than 1,305 average healing from a single skill).

If Average Healing is 99,998 or less (which it will be), the next step is to apply damage ranges. This can be any whole % of Average Healing from 95% to 105% (so 95% and 96% are both possible, but 95.5% isn't) selected at random, then rounded down.

Finally, if the final healing value is less than 1, it is instead 1.

Accuracy/Evasion

The game begins by determining a "Base Accuracy" from the following formula

Base Accuracy = ⌊ (1 + Attacker Agility / 400 - Defender Agility / 800) x (Skill Hit - Evasion) ⌋

Evasion being the sum of evasion from Armor and Sub-Armor.
For enemies this is 15 on Fios humans, 20 on Luma humans, 25 on Voidblack Fios humans, and either 0 or 3 in all other cases.

Skill Hit is technically arbitrary on a per-skill basis, however they follow a specific set of rules based on who they target and what stat their damage scales off (note: only reliable for player-usable damaging skills)

Targets	Skill Hit (Strength-based)	Skill Hit (Magic-based)
1 foe	97	99
all foes	95	98

with the following exceptions (among player-usable damaging skills)

Skill	Skill Hit
Plasma Nightblade	97 (despite targeting all foes)
Skills with "Low Hit Rate"	50
Any Synthesis if user has Arcane Unity	100

Several multipliers are applied to Base Accuracy

The "Sukukaja Multiplier" is as follows

Sukukaja Multiplier = Attacker's Multiplier x Defender's Multiplier

The components of which are

Sukukaja Stage	Attacker's Multiplier	Defender's Multiplier
-3	0.7	1.3
-2	0.8	1.2
-1	0.9	1.1
0	1.0	1.0
1	1.1	0.9
2	1.2	0.8
3	1.3	0.7

The Daze multiplier is set to

Condition	Daze Multiplier
Default	1.0
Attacker has Daze	0.5

There's a number of passive skills that apply multipliers here, grouped together as

Passive Multiplier Product = 1 x (product of all independent multipliers from passives)

the below passives multiply accuracy

Passive Skill/Effect	Condition	Passive Multiplier
<element> Dodge Equipment with "Increases Evasion against <element>."	Attacked with <element> <element> Evasion not present	0.85
<element> Evasion Equipment with "Greatly increases Evasion against <element>."	Attacked with <element>	0.6
Physical Dodge Equipment with "Increases Evasion against Slash, Pierce, and Strike."	Attacked with Slash, Pierce, or Strike	0.85
Third Eye	Attacked	0.5
Aim Support	Attacking	Same Lineage Allies (including self) Multiplier 1 1.1 2 1.2 3 1.3 4 1.5

There's a few effects beyond multipliers that directly subtract from the final accuracy value, grouped together as

Reduction Total = (sum of all Reductions)

the below effects reduce accuracy

Passive Skill/Effect	Condition	Reduction
Shadow Dwellers	Attacked	Same Lineage Allies (including self) Reduction 1 5 2 10 3 15 4 30
Beast-Scent Adept	Attacked by one of Demonic Beast Bird Monster Human Beast's Insight not unlocked	20
Beast's Insight	Attacked by one of Demonic Beast Bird Monster Human	40
Avades Bonus	Defender is an Avades human's heart Shell is alive Attack is strength-based Attack is melee	50

The final Hit Rate is

Hit Rate = ⌊ Base Accuracy x Sukukaja Multiplier x Daze Multiplier x Passive Multiplier Product ⌋ - Reduction Total

If Hit Rate would be above 99%, it is instead 99%. If Hit Rate would be below 1%, it is instead 1%.

Lastly, under the following conditions, hit rate calculation is ignored, and a specific result is given

Condition	Result
Null/Repel (counters included)/Drain	"Hit"
Skill has 100 Skill Hit without Arcane Unity	Hit
Skill benefits from an Accuracy Charge (Precision Fermented Ribs)	Hit
Target is asleep	Hit
Target has Sturdy Stance	Hit

Critical Hit Rate

To start, only Strength-based Slash, Pierce, Strike and Almighty attacks can crit.
If the skill can crit, then crit rate is calculated as

Base Crit Rate = ⌊ ( Attacker Luck + 50 ) / ( Defender Luck + 50 ) x Skill Crit x Enemy Penalty ⌋

"Enemy Penalty" is 0.8 if an Enemy is attacking, and 1.0 if a Player is attacking.

"Skill Crit" is defined arbitrarily per skill. Below is what that value looks like for any (player-usable) skill

Skill	Skill Crit
Summon Goblin King Fortune Slots Critical Strike	100 (skip calculation and succeed if able)
Gold Rush Gold Attack	35
Bodhisattva's Palm Brave Blade	30
Spiral Fist	25
Perfect Punch Crushing Fist	20
Skull Cracher Power Thrust Hell Thrust	15
Meteoric Fist Tiger Eruption Fist	10
Plasma Nightblade All other single-target skills that can crit	8
All other multi-target skills that can crit	5
Slash, Pierce, Strike, or Almighty basic attacks	3

The final crit rate is

Crit Rate = Base Crit Rate + Boosts

Where boosts are

Skill/Effect	Condition	Boost
Critical Trade Equipment with "Increases critical hit chance."		Base Crit Rate
Diligent Discipline		Same Lineage Allies (including self) Boost 1 5 2 10 3 15 4 30
Spirit of Adversity	Current HP / Max HP ≤ 0.25	15
High Voltage	Begin Squad Battle with an Ambush*	15
Rebellion	Spend a turn icon buffing crit rate All crit rate buffs of that sort apply Rebellion	15
Undaunted Spirit	Attack a Human Slayer of Humans not unlocked	10
Slayer of Humans	Attack a Human	20

*Opening Volley + Stun does not count as an ambush. As a result this is impossible to benefit from as the player. Since no enemies have the skill, this effectively means High Voltage does nothing due to an oversight.

Additionally, under the following circumstances crit rate calculation will either be bypassed, or the result will be ignored (results with "no crit" are prioritized over results with "crit")

Condition	Forced Result
Attack does not scale off Strength by default	no crit
Attack is not Slash, Pierce, Strike, or Almighty	no crit
Attack hits a weakness, or is evaded, nulled, repelled, or drained	no crit
Defender has Dodge Master	no crit
Attack's base crit rate is 0	no crit
Defender is guarding	no crit
Attack's base crit rate is 100	crit
Defender is afflicted with Sleep	crit
Defender is afflicted with any ailment Attack is Loathsome Claw	crit
Attack is basic attack Equipment with "Attacks that land always deal critical hits." is present	crit
Weather is not Clear, Cloudy, Rain, or Dread Equipment with "Always deal critical hits during storms." is present	crit

Ailment Infliction Rate

The ailment rate formula is

Base Ailment Rate = ⌊ (Attacker Luck + 100) / (Defender Luck + 100) x Skill Ailment Rate x Weakness Correction ⌋

With "Skill Ailment Rate" being defined on a per-skill basis. The following ailment rates are used for players (enemy-only skills may vary from this).

Source	Skill Ailment Rate
Basic attacks that can inflict ailments Illusive Dream Assassinate Plasma Nightblade	30
All other skills or consumables that inflict ailments	40
Infernal Vortex Summon Fairy (Modified) Godkiller	50

"Weakness Correction" can be any number of values tied to the character's resistance to the ailment's element.

	Resist	Neutral	Weak
Default	0.5	1.0	1.5
	0.4	1.5	1.8
	0.3	2.0	2.0
	0.2	3.0	3.0
	0.1

With ailments using these resistances

Ailment	Element
Poison	Poison
Malady	Malady
Paralysis	Paralysis
Hex	Dark
Burn	Fire
Frostbite	Ice
Charm	Charm
Daze	Daze
Forget	Forget
Sleep	Sleep
Rage	Rage
KO	Dark
Anxiety	Anxiety
Stun	Almighty

A number of multipliers are applied to ailments after calculating the base rate, listed below

Source	Condition	Multiplier
Art of Dance	Attacker has Art of Dance Ailment is not KO Ailment source is not a consumable	1.3
Pagan Teachings	Follower is in defender's party Ailment is Anxiety Pagan Secrets not unlocked	0.5
Pagan Secrets	Follower is in defender's party Ailment is Anxiety	0.25
Hex	Defender has Hex Ailment source is not a consumable	2.0
Snow	Weather is Snow Ailment is Frostbite Ailment source is not a consumable	2.0

The final ailment rate is

Ailment Rate = ⌊ Base Ailment Rate x Multiplier product ⌋

If Ailment Rate would be more than 99%, it is instead 99%.

Anxiety

If an enemy lands a crit on an ally and does not inflict another mind ailment with that attack or if an ally attacks into a Null, Repel, or Drain, there's a chance that ally will be afflicted with Anxiety if they aren't already.

Resistance	Anxiety Base Rate (Standard)	Anxiety Base Rate (Pagan Teachings)	Anxiety Base Rate (Pagan Secrets)
Neutral (100%, most archetypes)	20%	10%	5%
Resist (50%, Prince)	10%	5%	2%
Resist (30%, Faker/Trickster)	6%	3%	1%

If playing on Regicide, add a flat 20% to the anxiety base rate.

Flags can be set by the game to either skip this process or guarantee the Anxiety attempt succeeds.

Ailment Recovery

Ailment Recovery attempts occur only at the start of each turn. And it cannot happen the turn immediately after receiving the ailment.

Ailment Recovery rate is

Ailment Recovery Rate = ⌊ Luck / 4 ⌋ + 20

Additionally, each ailment starts with some number of turns remaining that ticks down at the start of each turn. Once that ticks down to 0, a recovery is guaranteed.

Ailment	Max Duration
Poison	6
Malady	6
Paralysis	6
Hex	6
Burn	3
Frostbite	3
Charm	3
Daze	3
Forget	3
Sleep	3
Rage	3
Anxiety	2
Stun	2

Additionally, due to what appears to be an oversight, if any support effect (Tarukaja, Rebellion, Knight's Proclamation, etc.) on the afflicted expires at the start of their turn, all ailment recovery functions are skipped. This skips, among other things, decrementing the ailment timer, running the random recovery check, or even Instant Recovery's effect to recover from ailments immediately.

Effects of Ailments

Poison

After acting, afflicted loses 5% of their max HP. Cannot be lethal.

Malady

Strength, Magic, Endurance, Agility, and Luck are reduced to 1/3rd their original value, before applying stat caps.
Healing does not affect the afflicted character.

Paralysis

Upon acting, 80% chance to be paralyzed and unable to move.
Note that, despite making the afflicted unable to move, it does not in any way hinder evasion.

Hex

Resistance damage multiplier for Dark is set to 3.0x against afflicted, regardless of the actual resistance level.
Ailment rates are doubled against afflicted when not using consumables.
After afflicted deals damage, afflicted takes damage equal to 50% of the total damage dealt to targets that survived the attack, rounded down.

Burn

After afflicted takes damage, afflicted takes additional damage equal to 30% of the total damage dealt, rounded down.

Frostbite

Afflicted's damage dealt is multiplied by 0.5x.

Charm

Overrides afflicted's action in ways that are not yet fully understood.

Daze

Afflicted's hit rate is multiplied by 0.5x.

Forget

Afflicted cannot use skills, but can still perform basic attacks, guard, pass, and use items.

Sleep

Afflicted's action is lost, restoring an as of yet undocumented amount of HP and MP.
Afflicted cannot evade.
Attacks against afflicted that can crit will always crit.
Cured upon receiving non-Draining HP damage.

Rage

Afflicted is forced to perform a basic attack on their action.
Afflicted both deals and takes 2x damage.

Anxiety

Afflicted will perform archetype skills randomly when using them, the specifics of which are not known.
If an attack deals damage to afflicted, no press turn icon is removed.
Cured upon taking any HP damage from a character other than self.

Stun

Afflicted cannot act or evade.
20% chance to be cured upon taking HP damage from a source other than Opening Volley, Mortal Strike, or a source that Drains HP, once per attack (on the last hit).

Enemy Drops and Rewards

EXP and A-EXP

If Fortune's Grasp and/or Archetypal Ring (does not stack) are found on the character, multiply A-EXP by 1.5.

Multipliers are applied to EXP and A-EXP based on the difference between the enemy's level and the player's level

Enemy Level - Player Level	EXP/A-EXP Multiplier
-10	0.25
-9	0.3
-8	0.35
-7	0.4
-6	0.45
-5	0.5
-4	0.55
-3	0.6
-2	1
-1	1
0	1
1	1
2	1
3	1.05
4	1.05
5	1.1
6	1.1
7	1.15
8	1.15
9	1.2
10	1.3

Item Drop Rate

Each enemy has a common drop and a rare drop, the odds of them giving their drop are

True Drop Rate = (⌊ ( 1 + Total Luck of Party / 400 ) x Drop Rate ⌋ + Lucky Find) x Regicide x Ambush

"Drop Rate" is the base drop rate for the item.

"Total Luck of Party" only includes the active party, not anyone in reserves.

"Lucky Find" is 20 if anyone in the party has the skill "Lucky Find" for common drops, or 20 if anyone in the party has the skill "Luckier Find" for rare drops. Otherwise this is 0.

"Regicide" is 2 if playing on the "Regicide" difficulty setting, otherwise it's 1.

"Ambush" is 2 if the player stuns the enemy in the overworld before starting the battle.

Steal

Stealing can only steal the enemy's rare drop, and has one of the following Steal rates

Normal

Steal Chance = ⌊ Attacker Agility / 2 + Drop Rate x 1.2 ⌋ + Plunder Bonus

Equipment with "Increases success of stealing skills."

Steal Chance = ⌊ Attacker Agility + Drop Rate x 1.2 ⌋ + 10 + Plunder Bonus

"Plunder Bonus" is 20 if using Plunder instead of Steal.

"Drop Rate" is the base drop rate of the item being stolen. This can be any of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 25, or 100 depending on the enemy being stolen from.

At 89 Agility or more, when using equipment to boost the success rate of stealing skills, it is impossible for Steal to fail provided there is an item to Steal.

Debt Collection

The amount of MAG added to the battle result by Debt Collection is determined by

Bonus MAG = √(Attacker Level) x Attacker Archetype Rank x 10

Since MAG gained this way is added to the battle result itself, it is affected by Unscathed Triumph, and is not gained if running away.

Pickpocket

Pickpocket gives a 50% chance of receiving an enemy's common drop when stunning or killing them in the overworld while the protagonist is in Thief, Assassin, or Ninja. This chance cannot be modified. In some cases, it will use the enemy's rare drop instead, though why this happens is not understood.

Miscellaneous

Faker's Roguery

Faker's Roguery's outcomes are split into the following table. Number of times Faker's Roguery has been used is reset at the start of the player's turn

Result	First Time	Second Time	Third Time onwards	First Time (Joker's Knives)	Second Time (Joker's Knives)	Third Time onwards (Joker's Knives)
Lost all Turn Icons!	5%	10%	95%	5%	10%	95%
All Turn Icons are blinking!	25%	35%	4%	0%	0%	0%
Gained two Turn Icons!	35%	35%	1%	35%	40%	1%
Gained three Turn Icons!	25%	10%	0%	45%	40%	4%
Gained four Turn Icons!	10%	10%	0%	15%	10%	0%

Guard Duty

If

• The protagonist is attacked by an enemy
  
• The attack would strike the protagonist's weakness
  
• the attack used is single-target
  
• Hulkenberg is in the active party
  
• Hulkenberg has no ailments
  
• This ability has not been triggered previously this battle

then there is a chance the attack is redirected to Hulkenberg, depending on the ability unlocked

Ability	Activation Chance
None	0%
Guard Duty	30%
Special Guard Duty	100%

Hulkenberg is treated as guarding for a redirected attack.

Victory Foresight

If the ability "Victory Foresight" is unlocked, then the following behavior will occur.

At the start of each player's turn, the game checks Victory Foresight's turn counter.
If the turn counter is 0, then there is a 31% chance that Gallica adds 2 blinking Turn Icons.
If she adds turn icons, Victory Foresight's turn counter is set to a random value from 6 to 9.

At the end of each enemy turn, if Victory Foresight's turn counter is greater than 0, it is lowered by 1. This occurs before the above behavior.

Conclusion

Let me know if there's anything that I didn't cover here that you think should be. I'm still working on this, and would appreciate any suggestions for what to include or look into.

Spreadsheet with Skill, Equipment, and Enemy Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FDC6T6tr__-AU18tY--4-ZUSzkeaMM_Kg_Crqu6VrcM/edit?usp=sharing

Spreadsheet with Character/Archetype stats and growths
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UF3G5-pp0uUm6c8i39B5-Zi6fATB2gaH-fHWpLgWxRs/edit?usp=sharing

[Drone456]

@CTOBN

Thanks a lot for the quick answers man! Really appreciate it. Wish Opening Volley didn't work that way, but oh well I guess, back row it is haha. Would have been nice if there was a risk/reward system in the overworld in addition to the turn-based combat.

Thanks again!

[CTOBN]

@Drone456

1) I can't tell you for overworld, but Opening Volley is a fixed range of 30% to 35% of their max HP. Mortal Strike (the upgraded version of Opening Volley) is a fixed range of 60% to 70% of their max HP.

2) No. Like I said earlier it's a fixed range.

3) I think it's purely random, but I don't actually know for sure.

[Drone456]

1) Does the Strength or Magic stat affect overworld/opening volley (free attack when engaging a stunned enemy) damage? If not, is it just level and weakness exploitation (from what I found others purporting)?

2) Does formation affect overworld/opening volley damage at all? As in do characters in the front row do more damage with attacks in the overworld/opening volley, and vice-versa with backrow?

3) What determines who initiates the opening volley? Is it just purely random?

If you don't know the answers to these questions and don't feel like digging to find them out, no worries man. But thought I would at least ask in case you might know. As especially with #2, it just doesn't make sense that they don't just default you to backrow at all points then if that's unaffected.

Thanks for your time in even reading this, and also again for the guide!

[Drone456]

Thanks a lot for taking the effort and time to make this guide! A lot of this goes over my head, as I am not very math literate haha, but it's still nice to see how some things break down.

Hopefully you don't mind a few questions I have that I just cannot find the answer to anywhere seemingly. I figured you would likely be the best person to ask for this, as you deep-dived all the mathematics of this game.

(Sorry about the split in messages. 1000 character limit...)

[CTOBN]

@Nathan Ciel

Luck does not affect that.

Answer is A. Adding Counter and Magic Counter would do nothing if Omni-Counter is already present.

That hasn't been verified explicitly, but as far as I can tell a forced weakness would affect Hex's affliction rate. On paper it would let you inflict Hex/Instakill on enemies that are normally immune to Dark, however each element resistance can have a flag set for "ailment immunity" that isn't overridden by forced weaknesses. This flag is set so commonly on Dark resistance that the only Dark-immune enemy you would be able to inflict Hex/Instakill on this way is "Ostoflo" (level 41 Plant enemy with 30 luck, for reference on finding it).

[Nathan Ciel]

Sorry, a few more questions.

Does Luck affect counter chance at all? What would happen if I add Lance of Judgment, Counter and Magic Counter to Royal Knight's Omni-Counter?

A) They don't stack. Still 25% chance to repel all elements excluding Almighty.

B) They stack. 50% chance to repel all elements excluding Almighty.

C) They stack. 25% chance on two separate "rolls".

And what about ailment affliction rate? Like, can you "boost" Hex affliction chance by forcing a Dark weakness with Sable Dance? Is it possible to inflict Hex on enemies that are supposedly immune to it with this method?

[CTOBN]

@Nathan Ciel

Changes the base rate from 15% to 25%.

[Nathan Ciel]

Do you have any numbers for Lance of Judgment (increase counter activation chance)? How much is the bonus?

[Lightboom]

Actually yeah, you're right. I've missed it because it's applied in the function that gets base weapon damage.

[CTOBN]

@Lightboom

Which code are you referring to? The Archetype modifier would be applied right before Sense of Kinship.