Bewildering Grace (how to make a fight more chaotic)

The odds of generating a given outcome every time you use the Bewildering Grace skill.

Stats have been drawn from a mod available on nexus mods. Said mod contains a list which compares the original odds & effect potency vs the modified effects & potency.

Only the original odds are displayed in this guide (* a couple of possible typos have been amended to ensure all outcomes total 100%). The effects have been split into good & bad.

Overview & acknowledgements

I must first acknowledge:
1) a gamepur article on bewildering grace (BG).
https://www.gamepur.com/guides/all-bewildering-grace-effects-in-octopath-traveler-2
This article lists the majority of the effects that BG can cause but doesn't list their odds. It does however split them into good and bad effects.

2) the work of the modder known as Golem on Nexus mods.

https://www.nexusmods.com/octopathtraveler2/mods/25

They created a mod to amend the effects of BG on the PC version and kindly chose to list the original odds for each outcome to emphasise what had been altered. However their mod seems to have removed inflicting sleep as an outcome - percentages didn't total 100% indicating a missing entry; and potentially had a typo for the howling wind - 10% at 1 BP reducing to 2% at 2 BP.

I have assumed two things:
I) that howling wind is 2% at all levels, as most skills only drop by 20% as you spend more BP and a number of outcomes remain at a static 2% for all BP spends.
II) that Sleep is the only missing effect from their mod list, so have used math to determine the missing percentages for each column. This was an option in the first octopath traveller, with high odds of occurring (8-10%), but I've assumed that they've altered it's odds of occurring at higher tiers with the expansion of effects for this game.

For comparison: https://octopathtraveler.fandom.com/wiki/Bewildering_Grace lists all the possible outcomes for the original game.

The general odds are around 65% positive (62-67), 5% neutral (wasted roll), 30% negative (28-34). The exact value varies, with the 1 BP column having the best odds for positive effects (67%) and 4 BP the worst odds (62%).

How the table works:
Your possible outcomes are dictated by the number of battle points you spend on BG. 0 BP represents is the basic skill and will give you one result - good or bad; 3 BP is the skill with maximum boost and will give you 4 results. All 4 results will be applied in succession. Using more BP opens up the potential for wilder results. This is essentially a gambling mechanic.

In the event of drawing the same type of JP or XP boost 2+ times in one combat, the BEST result will be applied ONCE.

The luckiest draw recorded for BG is here:

Positive Outcomes

Description	odds - 0 BP	odds - 1 BP	odds - 2 BP	odds - 3 BP
JP x100	-	-	-	0.1%
XP x100	-	-	-	0.1%
You tried to summon a rare fiend (swaps 1 non-boss monster with a Cait or Octopuff of any grade)	-	-	-	0.5%
Completely recovered - fill HP, SP, BP and latent power for entire party plus remove all negative status effects	-	-	1%	1%
A monster appeared - a Revenant applies Exploding Fist to all the foe	-	-	4%	4%
JP x5	-	-	1%	1%
XP x5	-	-	1%	1%
An enemy's (1 target) shield points are reduced by 10	-	-	1%	1%
BP fully restored	-	1%	2%	2%
10,000 leaves rain down from the sky	-	1%	2%	2%
A tempest howls - all the enemy takes wind based damage	-	2%	2%	2%
JP x2	2%	2%	2%	2%
XP x2	2%	2%	2%	2%
Light cascades down from above (Light based attack, attack all)	2%	2%	2%	2%
Fireballs rain down from the heavens (3 hits of non-elemental damage dealt to all foes)	2%	2%	2%	2%
You are protected by a mysterious power (party receives 1 charge of reflective veil)	2%	2%	2%	2%
Completely fill the latent power gauge of all allies	2%	2%	2%	2%
Act again at the end of the turn (caster only)	2%	2%	2%	2%
SP recovered (50 SP for every party member)	5%	5%	4%	4%
BP recovered (1 BP for every party member)	5%	5%	4%	4%
Partially fill the latent power gauge of all allies	5%	5%	4%	4%
1,000 leaves rain down from the sky	5%	5%	4%	4%
A bolt of lightning strikes the enemy (lightning attack on a random single target)	5%	4%	4%	4%
You feel a boost of strength (entire party gains a 2 turn physical damage boost)	5%	4%	4%	4%
You recover a small amount of HP (400 HP to caster only)	10%	10%	8%	8%
Your foe appears drowsy - Put an enemy to sleep for 2 turns	11%	11%	6%	1.3%

Negative outcomes

Description	odds - 0 BP	odds - 1 BP	odds - 2 BP	odds - 3 BP
The fires rage uncontrollably - critical fire attack on all of the party	-	-	-	4%
You barely survive the attack - party reduced to 1HP each	-	-	1%	1%
You hear the whisper of Death in the air - 50% chance another party member will be reduced to 0 HP	-	-	1%	1%
Your items lay scattered on the ground - take minor damage; can't use items or concoct for remainder of the battle	-	2%	2%	2%
A toxic cloud consumes your party - suffer the poison status for 9 turns	2%	2%	2%	2%
BP depleted - entire party loses all BP	2%	2%	2%	2%
A monster appeared - foe is revitalized (healed & buffed)	2%	2%	2%	2%
Deplete the latent power gauge of all allies	2%	2%	2%	2%
Attribute raising effects changed to attribute reducing effects	2%	2%	2%	2%
The dance had no effect - wasted roll; the least painful bad roll	5%	5%	4%	4%
The ground explodes - entire part takes minor damage	5%	4%	4%	4%
You are enveloped in mist - entire party is subjected to silence for 2 turns	5%	4%	4%	4%
SP reduced to zero - caster only	5%	4%	4%	4%
Your defences weaken - Physical & magic defence reduced for 2 turns	5%	4%	4%	4%

[marcv666]

Hi, I have created this spreadsheet when the game came out: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujgl9WjfhevFsHI_IoRyUeRygv8fX3PXRT9-v1EO42c/edit?usp=sharing
I'm late cause I didn't saw your guide but, I also have tested Bewildering Grace. I have compiled 1950 cast of bewildering grace at max BP. These are not mathematical value but rather tested value, however there's a few things i'm sure of...
1- I have never ever seen "Your foe appears drowsy." Even in the normal game.
2- Exp x5 happens way more often, maybe there's a bug where the effect above doesn't happens and it gets replaced by Exp x5 effect instead, which would fit perfectly the odds I have on my side.