How to Win Knucklebones

This guide aims to help players to win at the mini-game Knucklebones which is required for some achievements and can also be used for moneymaking

Intro

So in this guide I'll be explaining how to win at Knucklebones. The game gives you the instructions but no actual strategies so it can be really easy to fall into certain traps in the game and end up losing right at the end. For now I will do my best to explain using the table below, but I may attempt to use screenshots at a later time. I hope this guide helps and if there are any questions or suggestions, let me know

X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

The Very Basics

So essentially the way the game works is that either you or the opponent roll and then pick a column to drop your dice in.

If the number placed matches a number in the same column on your side, then the numbers add together then double. If you stack 3 of the same number, then the numbers add together and then triple. So double 6's would be 24 instead of 12 and triple 6's would be 54 instead of 18. This is THE most important aspect to winning Knucklebones regularly.

Double Points

X	5	X
X	5	X
X	X	X
6	X	X
6	X	X
X	X	X

Triple Points

X	5	X
X	5	X
X	5	X
6	X	X
6	X	X
6	X	X

If the number placed matches a number in a column on the opponents side, then that number is removed from the opponents side. If the opponent has multiple of the same number in the same column and this is done, they lose all of that number and the column empties. This is important to prevent the opponent from getting high double or triple scores that could threaten your win.

Both of the previous rules work in reverse as well so the opponent is completely capable of ruining your double triple point columns.

Enemy Removing Your Triple Points

6	5	X
X	5	X
X	5	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

The game will continue until one side has their board completely filled up regardless of whether the opponent has anything on their board at all.

Enemy Winning the Game

6	5	4
6	5	4
6	5	4
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

So with the basics out of the way, it's time to use those basics to win the game.

Strategy

So the strategy for Knucklebones can be narrowed down to 2 goals, removing enemies high point values while letting them keep their low point values and keeping the enemy from removing your high point combos. Both of these need to be done at the same time so this strategy aims to do both at the same time with very little effort.

So the way this strategy works is that you base your move entirely on your opponents move. In the first few moves, if they roll low in a column, place a high number there. This makes them either settle for a low point combo or waste a column's ability to combo for extra points. If the enemy column is filled, they can't stop your combo points so focus on putting high roll combos there.

Enemy Rolled Low and You Rolled High

1	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
6	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

Enemy Rolled Low and You Rolled Low

1	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	1	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

If your opponent rolled high early, then ignore the column for now unless you can immediately remove the high roll. If they waste the rolls combo potential then the column can be safely ignored but if they start stacking a double or triple with the high roll, then you focus on removing it.

Enemy Rolled High and You Didn't Roll Same Number

6	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	5	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

Enemy Rolled High and You Rolled Same Number

X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
6	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

After that, focus on getting and protecting a high point combo while preventing the opponent's combo. Focus your high rolls into columns where the opponent has already placed non-combo dice and follow the old rule, "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." If the enemy is filling a column with low numbers, let them and don't remove the low rolls. If you remove the low rolls, then they have chance to get higher rolls in there.

After the first few moves are made, the priorities go as follows
1. Getting your high point combo
2. Removing opponent's high point combo
3. Avoiding removing opponents low point dice
4. Getting a low point combo
5. Removing opponent's low point combo

And by the end of it all you should be winning any game that doesn't kill you with bad rng. You can do everything right and still lose, just how life works sometimes but doing things right will help you win more often than not.

Afterword

So provided you understand the guide, you should now be able to use this to beat all 4 Knucklebones players, win their prizes and then gamble against the best one repeatedly for an easy 50 gold a game.

I hope this guide helps and if something wasn't clear, you have any questions or you have any suggestions, then let me know!

[CyberShadow]

I added deep linking:

https://cy.md/ta/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones/#0000006000000000005/ai1

Also it looks like it's better to counter 1 with 1 for Ratau and Flinky (but not the other two AIs):

https://cy.md/ta/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones/#0000001000000000001/ai1

[CyberShadow]

New solver is up !!!

https://cy.md/ta/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones/

[CyberShadow]

How weird that [code] doesn't work here. Or that you can't edit these comments.

[CyberShadow]

OK, I generated the data files for Ratau:

[code]
~/work/tas/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones » cat game.txt
...
...
6..

...
...
...

5

~/work/tas/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones » drun solve
Best move: left column (chances of winning: 82.751244% | 81.801392% | 81.801392%)
[/code]

So it still looks like it's better to counter a 6 with a 5, and (in case of Ratau) by an entire 1%!

[Athrek]

Oof, sounds like a lot! Does the actual game even take up that much space?(haven't checked) But once it's done that would mean basically guaranteed wins from that point on so that's a plus

[CyberShadow]

Haha, good point!

If I find more free time maybe I'll model the in-game AIs. Though, that probably means I'll need one graph per opponent, and each graph is like 18GB :/

[Athrek]

I see. I read the guide and I figured the assumption is in place. I'm not certain of their exact algorithm but I feel like my method tends towards taking advantage of the enemies mistakes better.

My problem using tools is a gambling game like this can most easily be explained by Mark Twain.

"The best swordsman in the world doesn't need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn't do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn't prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do; and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot."

Dont get me wrong, the tool works great especially if you don't want to learn the game, but the AI makes enough" incorrect" moves that it feels like the tool gets tricked into less optimal moves because it's opponent doesn't play perfectly

[CyberShadow]

Unfortunately it's not possible to explain easily because the calculation is a result of compounding probabilities and analysis across many turns ahead.

I've written about this in my guide:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2848999174

Though, and to be fair, this assumes that the opponent will play perfectly. The in-game AI plays less than perfectly, though we would have to take into account the exact algorithm they use and the random distribution for their random choices for an accurate analysis.

[Athrek]

Could you elaborate why it would actually be beneficial to do so? Because I can't see a benefit to it unless within the next(at least) 8 rolls, you don't roll even a single 6.

I'm not claiming you or the tool is wrong, I just can't think of any benefit to that approach beyond that specific example besides possibly the benefit of baiting the opponent into putting a 5 in their 6 column to mess it up

[CyberShadow]

On an otherwise empty board, it's actually better to counter a 6 with a 5 than put it in another column (though only by some 0.1%). See https://cy.md/ta/cult-of-the-lamb/knucklebones/