GACHA probabilities and more

Some in depth analysis for specific fields of the game.

Introduction

If you are new to the game, better check out the two guides below:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2017758540
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1695539441

GACHA probabilities

Since this game is quite a lot based on probabilities, it would be good to understand one thing first:
Each time you spend v-stones on an GACHA, you increase your chance of an SSR, but...
you will never have a 100% chance to get an SSR from a GACHA

Each time you spend v-points, your accumulated success chance goes up, but each time just a little bit less than before.

Now that this is out of the way, lets get down to some numbers.
Common probabilities are:
1.1% to get an SSR is most events
0.78% to get a TRENDING SSR in most events
0.38% to get a SPECIFIC trending SSR
3.3% in some rare events to get an SSR

This graph shows the decline of your steps towards 100% each 5k v-stones spent.
Probably another nice take away from it is your actual requirements to have a 50% chance to get an SSR.

Individual probability	to reach 50% try at least	spent V stones
0,38%	183 times	85k
0,78%	89 times	45k
1,10%	63 times	35k
3,30%	21 times	15k

If you are focusing on getting that one specific SSR for your main girl, then this graph will be interesting to you:
I do have this graph and formula in an google doc for people to use freely, but the graph doesn't even look close to my picture of the real one done in excel...

Main formula for this is:
=(1-(1-"individual chance")^"amount of GACHA draws")
Sample:
(1-(1-0.38)^100)=31.7%
You just spent 50k v-stones for 100 GACHA draws to get a 31.7% chance of getting that one specific SSR.

Girl EXP

Pretty short:
reaching level 40 not even close to "the tip of the iceberg"

Logarithmic graph:
If with each level the amount of EXP would increase by the same percentage, this graph would show a line. It's not too far off, but obviously it has a few dents...

Owner Level

If anyone wondered, the beginning FP at level 1 was 30 FP~

Decrease of max FP gain per level combined with EXP required increase per level


Shows how much total EXP you will have earned at which level.


Shows how much total FP you will have earned at which level.


The information above in short:

Owner Level	Required EXP	FP gain per level
1-10	90 EXP	+6 FP/LVL
11-20	120 EXP	+6 FP/LVL
21-30	150 EXP	+6 FP/LVL
31-40	180 EXP	+3 FP/LVL
41-50	210 EXP	+3 FP/LVL
51-100	240 EXP	+3 FP/LVL
100+	500 EXP	+2 FP/LVL

Girl Birthdays

Try to unlock all gifts in the birthday event shop on the girls birthday. You will get bonus EXP for giving them on that day and a higher chance of gratitude gifts in return.
The other stuff can be unlocked later, since the shop is available one week, but the gifts bonus only counts on the first day.

Upgrading

Since creating tables here is such a pain, I just have some pictures for you to save me hours of formatting...:

From SSR suit level 0-90, you need 30 medium unlock stones, 55 large unlock stones and 4 XL unlock stones. Furthermore, you will also need 1.250.300 Zack dollars (850k for limit breaking and rest for EXP feeding.

Accessories are "slightly" more tiring to fully upgrade, but look at the bright side, you wont get more SSR Accessories than SSR swimsuits~

The price of XL upgrade stones in the event shop is certainly a bargain if you compare it to M and L stones. I'd spend my currency on that if I already got the other important stuff from the shop.

Rock Climbing (For upgrading Potentials)

Haven't seen an easy to find guide for that, so here it is:

- Pick a climber
- give them high STM suit
- Make sure they aren't someone who participated in the last match
- Make sure they aren't your home screen girl either
- Make sure everyone who isn't climbing is in the event SR suit
- Changing climbers? Make all the necessary changes
- Purchase event SR suits is priority one as well as awakening the suits for whoever is participating in the events
- Buying guts drinks & climbing keys is priority two


- Enough keys to max upgrade 3 Potential skills per event, sometimes a bit more
- Up to 3 cheer girls in rock climbing (2 from last match + "home screen" girl); they can save STM for climbing girl when wearing trendy suits/accessories (in match mode): 5% save from each trending item
- STM skin lotion DOES help the climbing girl
- Do not do any climbing until everyone has their event SRs.
- Climbing girl gets 10% STM to use from her max STM total value (Potentials do not help)
- you often get one of these for free: +1% TEC/POW/STM Potentials

Random "good to know" stuff

Weekly Rewards
Usually, those give you exactly 1250 V-stones

Daily Rewards
250 V-stones +100 from Event in most cases.

Total Weekly V-stone income: 3700

FP Regeneration
2 points in 10min
12 points in 1h
288 points in 24h

fruity FP bottles
Besides the daily bottle in the VIP shop and the 3 bottles for the 20h job "write a report" with a trendy SSR, you also have the option after spending your guest points on the GACHA to save all the food gifts for the next birthday event and give it to the girl. You will get more often gratitude gifts back which can include FP bottles. Also, if you have VIP points to spare, buy the fruits from the VIP shop, too.

Gravure EXP
Best Gravure EXP income per FP point spent is...
Any MAIN Event which costs 18 FP (You can choose between POW, STM or TEC challange)
People might argue that the final MAIN event is better, but this is only true if you look at time spent. You get more points within one match, but need to spend slightly more FP to reach your gravure EXP target.
Gravure EXP / FP ratio:
MAIN Finale: 2.10 Grav EXP/FP
Any MAIN 18FP match: 2.33 Grav EXP/FP
(besides, those lower matches are still manageable if you only have a half upgraded VENUS SSR for your girl)

Affects on your fighting capability
You can make your girls stronger with...

• Leveling up their suit
  
• Leveling up the girl
  
• Using Potentials (also known as PP. You get some when your girl levels up and from awakening suits)
  
• Using Accessories (can also be leveled up, but not worth it if not an SSR)
  
• Skin Care (gives +X% of the girls base stat. Independent from swimsuit or accessories equipped. Higher level girl gives more bonus. Example: Lotion which gives you a 5 STM skill gives you +5% of your girls base STM)

STM consumption during a match
Once you reach 0 STM in a match, your POW and TEC base stats are reduced down to exactly 40% of its original value including EX Oil, suits and accessory bonuses.
This means all boni you are getting from Potentials will be applied to your current POW/TEC value.

Girl Upgrade guide
Also, thanks to "Dude", here a quick upgrade strategy for your girls:
- 1 fully awakened POW SSR with F-Skill (you wear that one against TEC opponents)
- 1 fully awakened TEC SSR with F-Skill (you wear that one against POW opponents)
- 1 STM SSR (for rock-climbing)
- 2 12/13 PP POW Potentials (different from the one of the fully awakened POW SSR)
- 2 12/13 PP TEC Potentials (different from the one of the fully awaakened TEC SSR)
- 1 12/13 PP STM Potential

... per girl.

First you could try to get this for two girls, then for a total of four (two POW and two TEC ones)

Events
Most normal events give you...
2x XL unlock stones in the first and fith SS match. They usually match at least one of the trending SSR's available.
SS+ matches usually give you 1 VP coin with the final giving you 2. This sums up to 5 VIP coins.

Being able to beat a higher match is not always better.
You DO get more EXP and event currency per FP spent, but if its for example an PvP event and you want to gets lots of event score points, I found easier matches much more rewarding (this also depends on how "good" you can win the match. 8 - 0 will always give you more than a 8 - 7). Not very important at this point, but the gravure EXP earned per FP point spent is actually much better on S matches.
20 FP match gives 0.50 gravure EXP/FP
24 & 26 FP match gives 0.46 gravure EXP/FP
36 FP match gives 0.39 gravure EXP/FP
39 FP match gives 0.36 gravure EXP/FP
If you have countless FP bottles, need more event currency, EXP and just want to get it over with, go ahead. Do your SS+ matches. It depends a bit on what you need most.

Final Word

Thats about it on info I could collect within one month of researching and playing.

Good info sites are also the following two links:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DOAXVenusVacation/comments/7u2fjt/stats_and_skill_data_list_for_costume_and/

https://doax.cc/english.html#

If you want to see anything too specific for other guides, but might as well fit in here, just lemme know and I'll update accordingly.

[Gallant Steel きし]

wwhat if I pull on 3.3 gachas? How will the probability of me getting an SSR increase?

[Vinchi]

If you lack Paid V stones, to get those bday suit or exclusive swimware. And you only had 1 or 2 try, try drawing in Venus Gacha and Other Gacha that you know that would failed getting SSR. Then after 2 to more failed draws, go to paid stone gacha ( bday or exclusive sexy swimware) to try your luck. Works for me though but not all the time, better failed intentionally on other gacha than the paid ones.

[T-K]

Glad u like it!
Since there was not much to do in the game, I had plenty of time to dedicate here haha

[Page France]

Great guide. Loving the dedication in the research and excel-gacha rate table.

[Жан Бодрийяр]

Quite interesting the use of Probability theory

[T-K]

The 1.1% is permanent. No bonus, no matter how often u roll or wait.

My graphs above which u might be referring to are according to statistics and accumulated probablity. The rates for each individual drop ingame do not change whatsoever.

[Old Geezer]

i use daily free pick, and tickets... does it remove the accumulated drop chance bonus in TREND GACHA, or not?
and if i use 50 trend tickets, and 30k V-stones... and go sleep without receiving the bonus. Tomorrow there will be good chances or again 1.1%?

[T-K]

Never pull the venus gacha. The suits are bad and u will get all suits in there slowly over time. And they never have any trend bonus.
Best to only pull trendy gacha.
Also, there is no accumulation of chances or saving. What u describe sounds a bit like the gacha system in Genshin Impact. We don't have that here.
If u spend a million crystals u might still end up getting nothing (even though ur mathematical probability to be that unlucky is veeeeery close to zero)

[Old Geezer]

The moment with the increased chance of getting SSR in the GACHA is not yet clear.
If I try VENUS GACHA several times, then go to TREND GACHA, will the accumulated bonus disappear or remain in VENUS GACHA?
And if SSR does not fall during this time, will the bonus remain the next day?

[Old Geezer]

Thank you very much