Potential Investment: Falchion Case

[4digitmen]

Since i really didnt expect a case to be added now, i couldnt invest as much as i wanted to on the Breakout Case. I think the next case out of the rotation is the Falchion, so should I invest in the Falchion?

[JNZ]

Not yet. If it's not falcion you're screwed.

[AskWhy]

You should NEVER invest in a case that isn't DISCOUNTED. Based on the fact that "IT WILL Discount". You never know what Valve will do, there are a lot safer and more profitable investments than the falchion case.

[Jonas]

Buy Revolver Cases if you can get them cheaper then 3 cents

[Jack]

Why Falchion? the oldest one currently on market? there was something similar already - autumn 2015 -> Chroma I (fast increasing supply on market) and Breakout (the most numbers on market and the oldest - except Phoenix)

[Jonas]

Originally posted by Jack:

Why Falchion? the oldest one currently on market? there was something similar already - autumn 2015 -> Chroma I (fast increasing supply on market) and Breakout (the most numbers on market and the oldest - except Phoenix)

Revolver get sold at least

[Jack]

Originally posted by Jonasrbo:

Originally posted by Jack:

Why Falchion? the oldest one currently on market? there was something similar already - autumn 2015 -> Chroma I (fast increasing supply on market) and Breakout (the most numbers on market and the oldest - except Phoenix)

Revolver get sold at least

In last 24 hours there have been sold 50% more Falchons than Revolvers.

[Hostile]

Originally posted by AskWhy:

You should NEVER invest in a case that isn't DISCOUNTED. Based on the fact that "IT WILL Discount". You never know what Valve will do, there are a lot safer and more profitable investments than the falchion case.

If you can buy Falchions or Shadow cases for 1 or 2 cents, you just buy them and store them and forget about them till they stop dropping. There are sources and sites where you can buy them for 1 cent. The moment a case stops dropping is the moment when everyone is after them and nobody is willing to sell them cheap for keys or cash (see breakout cases) because of the hype. But if you got them earlier for very cheap you make massive profit by just being a bit faster than others. It all depends on how much you pay and how patient you are. See Lionz and his prediction about breakout cases. He was buying way before the case stopped dropping and made huge profit by being a bit faster and smarter than others and buying them for very cheap.
So please don't give advices such as .....NEVER, and be more specific.

[RealHuhn]

Imo, pre-buying cases is based on luck, nothing else. If it fails you do not earn a single cent with your money for a long time.
I still prefer to buy them shortly after they get discontinued. Yes, I lose some profit but at the same time I can use my money on stuff that actually generates profit right now rather then maybe in a few months. But to each his own.
Both methods can work well.

[Hostile]

For 1 cent I really don't give a fuck how long it takes. I just store one account full of any case and forget about it. Of course you don't want to buy something like Wildfire case now. But Falchions are worth looking at as potential next candidate. And the potential profit can be huge if you are early. I used to follow the rule "never buy a case before it gets discontinued", but then I realized, thats what everyone does, thus reducing potential profit in the hype massively. You can reduce the "luck" factor by looking at numbers and history.

[RealHuhn]

Originally posted by HostileHero:

For 1 cent I really don't give a fuck how long it takes. I just store one account full of any case and forget about it. Of course you don't want to buy something like Wildfire case now. But Falchions are worth looking at as potential next candidate. And the potential profit can be huge if you are early.

Idk why anyone would sell cases for 1 cent but I guess some people do it =). If you can find someone, that's great of course.
1 cent is still 1 cent though which can be used for other investments right now.

[Hostile]

Breakout cases were available for 1 cent from several sources for a long time. Then it went to 2-3 cent lowest shortly before they stopped dropping and now people buy them for fucking 8-9 cent real cash at OPSkins.

[Google Maps]

On which site do u get cases for 1-2c

[Void]

Originally posted by r3mp:

On which site do u get cases for 1-2c

Bit skins revolvers are 2 cents

[LionzZ]

Originally posted by RealHuhn:

Originally posted by HostileHero:

For 1 cent I really don't give a fuck how long it takes. I just store one account full of any case and forget about it. Of course you don't want to buy something like Wildfire case now. But Falchions are worth looking at as potential next candidate. And the potential profit can be huge if you are early.

Idk why anyone would sell cases for 1 cent but I guess some people do it =). If you can find someone, that's great of course.
1 cent is still 1 cent though which can be used for other investments right now.

I often see what you stated here which is basically right but is it really the best method to go after every single of these "other" investments you talk of? And are they even really there at the moment? I personally prefer to just throw in a lot in very few things and wait for them to rise rather than going after every single fancy sticker hype to squeeze out a little bit more often.
If we talk about prestocking cases for example the potential reward just overbalances the risk for me by a lot. If you get them at 1-1,5ct which is quite possible at the right sources its a guaranteed profit of 2x-3x right after the discontinuation no matter how shitty the case is. For example I would rather "risk" 50e by prestocking 10K Revolvers @1,5ct and get a potential reward of 6-7 times my money after half a year max after a discontinuation than buying very specific things with an unsure (short-term)future and possibly investing a lower amount overall. Prestocking is in my opinion idiot-proof if its done right.
Regarding the profit %, prestocking cases is again way ahead. Which sticker/capsule/something else can manage to rise nowadays to amounts like 500% profit or more?

[RealHuhn]

Originally posted by LionzZ:

Originally posted by RealHuhn:

Idk why anyone would sell cases for 1 cent but I guess some people do it =). If you can find someone, that's great of course.
1 cent is still 1 cent though which can be used for other investments right now.

I often see what you stated here which is basically right but is it really the best method to go after every single of these "other" investments you talk of? And are they even really there at the moment? I personally prefer to just throw in a lot in very few things and wait for them to rise rather than going after every single fancy sticker hype to squeeze out a little bit more often.
If we talk about prestocking cases for example the potential reward just overbalances the risk for me by a lot. If you get them at 1-1,5ct which is quite possible at the right sources its a guaranteed profit of 2x-3x right after the discontinuation no matter how shitty the case is. For example I would rather "risk" 50e by prestocking 10K Revolvers @1,5ct and get a potential reward of 6-7 times my money after half a year max after a discontinuation than buying very specific stickers with an unsure future and possibly investing a lower amount overall. Prestocking is in my opinion idiot-proof if its done right.
Regarding the profit %, prestocking cases is again way ahead. Which sticker/capsule/something else can manage to rise nowadays to amounts like 500% profit or more?

This is very true but I have a few things I'd like to add:

1) It's unfair and simply misleading to compare short and long term profit in absolute numbers. When you jump on every little sticker hype you might get 10-100% profit in a couple of days/weeks. This profit can be reinvested and generates new money which can add up to a lot more than 500% long term. (I consider prestocking to be long term unless you get "lucky" and pick the right case at the right time).
There's also other stuff you can use your steam wallet for in order to generate quick money (and reinvest profit) like profitable trade up contracts, flipping skins etc.! If you have your cash locked away in pre-stocked cases, you miss those opportunities.

2) If you speak about buying cases for 1 cent on sites like opskins/bitskins, it's not really a fair comparison either because everything is less expensive with higher profit margins on these sites. You also have to use fresh real life cash or sell stuff on those sites and pay additional fees.

3) Making 50 alt accounts and confirming cases is a pain in the ***.

I haven't added any funds to my steam wallet after my initial investment of 200€ and I'd like to keep it that way.

All of that said, I believe you 100%. It's simply a different way of thinking. Mathematically both methods work. Investing short term is more risky (and time consuming) but potentially more rewarding.
To me, it's also more exciting. I invest to have fun and staring at cases is boring ;).