Sick of the dupe trading card drops and booster pack dupes

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 11:14am

Random drops are random.

Seriously, they are. It takes much more effort to code a system that's deliberately going to screw you over and refuse to give you that one single card you're missing from a set than it does to code a random system. A true random system will always seem to give you recognisable patterns when there actually aren't any... observe:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2960934/Is-music-player-really-random-Spotify-says-users-convinced-strange-patterns-shuffle-playlists.html

So they're not screwing you over... it's your mind playing tricks on you... and the fact that your luck just sucks at the moment.

Last edited by Brujeira; Aug 5, 2015 @ 11:14am

#1

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 11:35am

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Brujeira:
Random drops are random.

Seriously, they are. It takes much more effort to code a system that's deliberately going to screw you over and refuse to give you that one single card you're missing from a set that it does to code a random system. A true random system will always seem to give you recognisable patterns when there actually aren't any... observe:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2960934/Is-music-player-really-random-Spotify-says-users-convinced-strange-patterns-shuffle-playlists.html

So they're not screwing you over... it's your mind playing tricks on you... and the fact that your luck just sucks at the moment.
I have heard people say this, but they changed it along the way...they are banking on people just flipping the cards and putting them on the market I guess, the people that craft badges like me suffer and have to bite the bullet and buy extra cards 9 out of 10 times...This isn't a pattern, it is a fixed system now! Random would mean it would happen 20% of the time sometimes...This has been happening for months now, I get dupes 90% of the time from game drops and boosters...Can't believe this isn't happening to anyone else, I know people who craft a lot of badges like me can't be happy about this trend...nor the 2 hour drop delay they dropped on us with no warning either...

Look, this is Valve we're talking about here. In recent times, they've released a short-lived glitch that allowed hackers to bypass Steam Guard when hacking accounts, they've borked their own Support servers and there are long standing problems with their payment systems and other server-side bugs that go away for a while but just keep popping back up again.

Their programmers aren't up to scratch and they're certainly not high calibre enough to code a system that screws just a few individuals without completely screwing everyone and making it blindingly obvious too.

What you've got there is a long streak of poor luck combined with a bad case of Gambler's Fallacy.

#2

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 12:15pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Brujeira:

Look, this is Valve we're talking about here. In recent times, they've released a short-lived glitch that allowed hackers to bypass Steam Guard when hacking accounts, they've borked their own Support servers and there are long standing problems with their payment systems and other server-side bugs that go away for a while but just keep popping back up again.

Their programmers aren't up to scratch and they're certainly not high calibre enough to code a system that screws just a few individuals without completely screwing everyone and making it blindingly obvious too.

What you've got there is a long streak of poor luck combined with a bad case of Gambler's Fallacy.
What you aren't getting still is that luck should go both ways, not just one way....It's been 90% dupes for me for months and months straight now.

So, what you're saying is that when you have no cards in a set and you get a booster pack then you're practically guaranteed to get one card and two dupes? Over and over again... for months?

#3

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:07pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Brujeira:

So, what you're saying is that when you have no cards in a set and you get a booster pack then you're practically guaranteed to get one card and two dupes? Over and over again... for months?
No I get 90% dupes from every games card drops and every booster pack i open(whether it be from ones I buy with gems, get as a drop from crafting badges, or buy from market...all dupes at least 2 of the same card out of 3, sometimes 3 of the same, not as often as 2 of the same though.

Wow. OK, humour me for a second... this may not seem relevant but it is.

Hypothetical situation. You're in a Casino and you're at a Roulette table where, incredibly, the ball has landed on black 21 times in a row. The odds of this happening are astronomical. You feel like a bet. What colour do you bet on for the next 5 spins and why?

#4

Tito Shivan Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:36pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
And here is reality for you, I have crafted 1.068 badges, 90% of these badges I have had to spend on average an extra 10 cents for an extra card to create said set. Now please tell me how that doesn't matter at all? Maybe not to you, because you haven't spent that much.

Since you can't get a complete set from playing any game you're bound to spend money on purchasing cards regardless.
There's no need to game the system when the system itself is made to force users to trade or use the market. Repeats are irrelevant when you can't get a full set for free.

The world isn't there to get you. Bad luck is a more plausible explanation than a rigged system none of the tens of millions of users getting card drops daily have uncovered yet.

#5

jerk store Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:37pm

Originally posted by Tito Shivan:
Originally posted by jerk store:
And here is reality for you, I have crafted 1.068 badges, 90% of these badges I have had to spend on average an extra 10 cents for an extra card to create said set. Now please tell me how that doesn't matter at all? Maybe not to you, because you haven't spent that much.
Since you can't get a complete set from playing any game you're bound to spend money on purchasing cards regardless.
There's no need to game the system when the system itself is made to force users to trade or use the market. Repeats are irrelevant when you can't get a full set for free.

The world isn't there to get you. Bad luck is a more plausible explanation than a rigged system none of the tens of millions of users getting card drops daily have uncovered yet.

This is what I get everytime I post something about this so I am just going to stop and quit crafting once I hit level 200 and just sell/trade all the cards I get...I don't need a spin, I need answers.

Last edited by jerk store; Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:38pm

#6

J4MESOX4D Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:43pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Tito Shivan:
Since you can't get a complete set from playing any game you're bound to spend money on purchasing cards regardless.
There's no need to game the system when the system itself is made to force users to trade or use the market. Repeats are irrelevant when you can't get a full set for free.

The world isn't there to get you. Bad luck is a more plausible explanation than a rigged system none of the tens of millions of users getting card drops daily have uncovered yet.
This is what I get everytime I post something about this so I am just going to stop and quit crafting once I hit level 200 and just sell/trade all the cards I get...I don't need a spin, I need answers.

It's a chance-based drop system. That is the only answer. You're probably blowing it all out of proportion anyway. If are willing to spend so much on badges; you should be able to take the hit on any extra pennies you have to spend to complete the set.

#7

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 1:56pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Brujeira:

Wow. OK, humour me for a second... this may not seem relevant but it is.

Hypothetical situation. You're in a Casino and you're at a Roulette table where, incredibly, the ball has landed on black 21 times in a row. The odds of this happening are astronomical. You feel like a bet. What colour do you bet on for the next 5 spins and why?
And here is reality for you, I have crafted 1.068 badges, 90% of these badges I have had to spend on average an extra 10 cents for an extra card to create said set. Now please tell me how that doesn't matter at all? Maybe not to you, because you haven't spent that much.

Wow. Sounds about right actually - that's what happens with a random system. And here's reality for you.

I expected you to answer that you'd bet on red all 5 times as the odds of hitting black again are incredibly remote. I owe you an apology too as I lied. That wasn't a hypothetical situation - it was reality. Monte Carlo, 1913 - a Roulette wheel hit black 26 times in a row. People lost millions betting on red over and over again during this streak as they believed the 'natural order of randomness' meant it was bound to hit red as the streak couldn't possibly continue. Why didn't it hit red? Because their luck sucked.

Want another dose of reality? I used to play World of Warcraft and I just needed the breastplate to complete my first armour set. It dropped from a boss that dropped 2 breastplates each kill with a 12.5% chance to drop the one for my class. Killed that little f***er once a day for months - must have been around 200 kills. Saw my loot drop once, lost out on a loot roll, never saw it drop again... ever. Why? Because my luck sucked.

Now you're complaining that you're dropping far too many dupes when the only way to cut the chance of that happening to people is to have a system that is NOT RANDOM. S*** like this happens in a random system. It happened to the folks in Monte Carlo, it happened to me and it's happening to you.

I'd suggest that you quit your bellyaching and make your mind up. Either you shrug your shoulders, say 'S*** happens' and carry on with badges or start selling the ludicrous number of boosters you get in order to subsidise your gaming.

#8

J4MESOX4D Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:06pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by J4MESOX4D:
It's a chance-based drop system. That is the only answer. You're probably blowing it all out of proportion anyway. If are willing to spend so much on badges; you should be able to take the hit on any extra pennies you have to spend to complete the set.
Haha extra pennies? I have crafted thousands of badges... .10 x 900 is over 90 extra dollars spent. 90 dollars is nothing I guess. How do you know its a chance based system? Where is the proof of that? Are you just assuming that?

Of couse it's a chance/random based system. I don't get why you're whinging about $90 when you've spend hundreds if not thousands on pixels that offer practically nothing.

If it's getting you this wound up; you should really stop crafting badges and avoid gambling also as that is luck-based too. I get my fair share of duplicates but it's nothing to get paranoid or enraged about.

#9

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:22pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by J4MESOX4D:
Of couse it's a chance/random based system. I don't get why you're whinging about $90 when you've spend hundreds if not thousands on pixels that offer practically nothing.

If it's getting you this wound up; you should really stop crafting badges and avoid gambling also as that is luck-based too. I get my fair share of duplicates but it's nothing to get paranoid or enraged about.
It's always the level 0's coming in here acting like they know how it feels to craft thousands of badges...you have provided no proof that it's a chance based system other than "Of course it is"...sorry that doesn't make me believe you. I just know what I have seen, and it is so far from random its not even funny...

Of course, you have no proof that he hasn't crafted thousands of badges.

#10

Brujeira Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:24pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Brujeira:

Of course, you have no proof that he hasn't crafted thousands of badges.
Again, I go by what I see...you should too hypothetical boy...

I haven't posted anything hypothetical in this thread.

#11

J4MESOX4D Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:24pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by J4MESOX4D:
Of couse it's a chance/random based system. I don't get why you're whinging about $90 when you've spend hundreds if not thousands on pixels that offer practically nothing.

If it's getting you this wound up; you should really stop crafting badges and avoid gambling also as that is luck-based too. I get my fair share of duplicates but it's nothing to get paranoid or enraged about.
It's always the level 0's coming in here acting like they know how it feels to craft thousands of badges...you have provided no proof that it's a chance based system other than "Of course it is"...sorry that doesn't make me believe you. I just know what I have seen, and it is so far from random its not even funny...

Well if it's not chance-based; please enlighten us all with your paranoia of prood that Steam is trying to screw you over...

You can always trade cards anyway to avoid losses. I'm level 68, seen my fair share of duplicates but it's no big deal. If you can't take the hit; stop crafting badges altogether. It's already making you angry it seems. Buy some videogames instead or spend money productively elsewhere. You already know duplicates are a strong possibility especially if you have half a set earned by in-game drops.

Last edited by J4MESOX4D; Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:26pm

#12

Random Reference #98 Aug 5, 2015 @ 2:39pm

You can't ever make a complete set off drops in the first place, you will always have to buy or trade for the cards you are missing, even moreso with boosters in most cases.
If you get a dupe you can trade it for a card you don't have, you have lost no extra money. If you sell it on the market then buy one you are missing then in the majority of cases you only lost a few extra cents from Valve taking their cut.
In both cases you wind up with the same number of cards for the game as you got from drops and in both cases you are in pretty much the exact same position as if you had gotten no dupes. You still need the remaining cards for the badge either way and since dupes can easily be turned into cards you actually need there is no problem.

Also you can use dupes to put another level on a badge. If you're only making level 1/2 badges you're doing it wrong as anyone who wants a decent Steam level the easy way has lvl 5 versions of CSGO, Chivalry and all the other super cheap badges regardless of whether they even own those games.

Oh and before you start complaining again about level 0's telling you what's what you should know that private profiles always show level 0 regardless of the actual level.

#13

Tito Shivan Aug 5, 2015 @ 3:11pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
This is what I get everytime I post something about this so I am just going to stop and quit crafting once I hit level 200 and just sell/trade all the cards I get...I don't need a spin, I need answers.

It looks to me you don't look for answers but validation.

Originally posted by jerk store:
Again, I go by what I see...you should too hypothetical boy...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Is really easy to fall on it. Specially when hipotesizing on reduced, non significative or incomplete sets of data. (Which 'my drops' apply for all three)

#14

Random Reference #98 Aug 5, 2015 @ 3:15pm

Originally posted by jerk store:
Originally posted by Random Reference #98:
You can't ever make a complete set off drops in the first place, you will always have to buy or trade for the cards you are missing, even moreso with boosters in most cases.
If you get a dupe you can trade it for a card you don't have, you have lost no extra money. If you sell it on the market then buy one you are missing then in the majority of cases you only lost a few extra cents from Valve taking their cut.
In both cases you wind up with the same number of cards for the game as you got from drops and in both cases you are in pretty much the exact same position as if you had gotten no dupes. You still need the remaining cards for the badge either way and since dupes can easily be turned into cards you actually need there is no problem.

Also you can use dupes to put another level on a badge. If you're only making level 1/2 badges you're doing it wrong as anyone who wants a decent Steam level the easy way has lvl 5 versions of CSGO, Chivalry and all the other super cheap badges regardless of whether they even own those games.

Oh and before you start complaining again about level 0's telling you what's what you should know that private profiles always show level 0 regardless of the actual level.
Not the point, stop trying to spin it. I am spending more than I should be, if it was 20% dupes out of boosters and game drops like it used to be before every game started adding cards I wouldn't be complaining one bit.

I'm not spinning anything, everything I said is fact. If you trade a dupe for a card in the set you are missing you have lost no extra money and have the exact same number of cards from the set as you would have had if none had been dupes. The only way a dupe costs you money is if you sell it to buy a card you are missing in which case the only money you lose is the few cents Steam pulls from market sales.

#15

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