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As for the probability of it being on sale at all, very high.
Actually, it was a bit higher than that.
https://isthereanydeal.com/search/?q=grand+theft+auto+v#/page:game/info?plain=grandtheftautov
HOWEVER, as far as I know, this uses a 3rd-party DRM -- so the only way to get the Steam-version is through the Steam store. Everyone else just sells keys for the Rockstar DRM. This makes other sales irrelevant.
Yeah, i was talking only about the Steam version since he asked about the next Steam sale.
Also like you said, all versions you can buy outside of Steam use Rockstar Social Club and do not activate on Steam. The only way to get a Steam version of GTA V is to buy it directly on Steam.