The probability of getting this question right

[起风了]

A.0% B.25% C.50% D.100%

[起风了]

If the correct answer is 25%, then the probability of choosing 25% is 25%, because 25% is one of the four options. However, some people argue that if the correct answer is 100%, then the probability of choosing 100% is also 25%, because 100% is also one of the four options. This contradicts the probability of 100%.

[起风了]

Do you think it is appropriate to understand prior probability and posterior probability in this way?

[ᶻ𝗓𐰁]

I think it is C. 50%. Either you get it right or you don't.

[ṼṏẌṏḭḊ]

This is OT, so 0%.

[the vampire of time and memory]

cute

[起风了]

Originally posted by ᶻ𝗓𐰁:

I think it is C. 50%. Either you get it right or you don't.

But once you make a choice, the probability immediately jumps from 50% to either 0% or 100%. Doesn't this contradict the 50%?

[Reddari]

0% as there was no question.

[ᶻ𝗓𐰁]

Originally posted by 起风了:

Originally posted by ᶻ𝗓𐰁:

I think it is C. 50%. Either you get it right or you don't.

But once you make a choice, the probability immediately jumps from 50% to either 0% or 100%. Doesn't this contradict the 50%?

But is 50% the correct answer? I say... maybe.

[󠀡󠀡󠀡󠀡⁧⁧Kei]

I was going to choose B anyway

[Neme]

Case 1 :

25% is correct answer. Then probability of getting correct answer is 50%.

Thus we contradict with our assumption. So, 25% IS NOT CORRECT ANSWER.

Case 2 :

50% is correct answer, Then probability becomes 25% of choosing correct answer. So, answer becomes 25%. So our assumption still becomes wrong.

Case 3:

Lets say 0% is correct answer. But then, probability of choosing correct answer becomes 25%, so it again contradicts out assumption. So 0% is not correct answer

Thus, probability of getting correct answer becomes 0%. But again, probability of selecting 0% becomes 25%. So correct answer becomes 25%. But again probability of selecting 25% becomes 50%. So 50% becomes correct answer…and still count and count.

[skOsH♥]

Truth is 50/50 it's either factual or it isn't right?

50%?

Unless it's like a Monty hall question and there's three options and a silly option?

Originally posted by Reddari:

0% as there was no question.

This is also a good point. No one knows the answer to a question they aren't given

It could be a troll question in which case the answers are any of them and also none of them

Could be rhetorical so 100%