Which one would you choose? $1 million now or $5 mil in 10 years?

[apple]

Imagine if you were offered the choice of $1 million USD to take away now or $5 million USD after waiting 10 years, which option would you pick?

[N3tRunn3r]

引用自 Kamiyama：

I make less than 40k a year, and I will be able to retire in about 25 years... so if I worked until I retire I would have made around 1 million in combined income.

Of course most of that won't be saved. I basically live paycheck to paycheck.

That 5 mil will last me for the rest of my life. I won't be buying a mansion and a sports car.

I would quit my job, focus on learning japanese, and move to Japan where the money would go so much farther. Homes are very affordable there and the cost of living is much lower, but I would still have access to a similar quality of life. It's an advanced country and I would have a blast traveling Japan and trying out all the different foods.

you got it .. !!

but no one could say how much value 5M will be in 10 years . . .
maybe soap, beans and ammunition will have more value . . . who knows . . .

talking about Japan, one of my destinations besides New Zealand and Argentinia ::

Japan's military budget currently is within world's top10!! Even South Korea is behind Japan!!

Japan even doubles up their military budget to 2027, to be prepared to be able to defend against China, Russia, and some other threats!!

This was latest news from this February.

Japan will have one of the most top and modern armies on this world, soon.
Nothing of such current obsolete "steampunk" stuff as Russia has . . . for example.


P.s.:

Defense Budget by Country (2024)
https://www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.php

[Stranger]

引用自 Siluva：

Bro' I don't plan to live that long gimme that 1M now :selphinehappy:

assume you instantly reincarnate and have clear deals with various governments protecting your assets.

and also no parasites that would attack your assets just to get a buttpat from god. I wonder how that's working out; I wonder how many of my enemies are even still alive. I wonder how many of the dead ones are still bitter about a life they barely comprehended?

[dr2d2]

Now invest some of it in stocks (not crowdstrike).

[Stranger]

引用自 dr2d2：

Now invest some of it in stocks (not crowdstrike).

just invest in stocks (not the safe ones)

[Dutchgamer1982]

引用自 N3tRunn3r：

Of course, 1 M causes more trouble than freedom ... !!

50.000 buy old village with 20 houses in frances verdun region.
(villages that are vacant since ww1.. so no modern facilities.. no sewers.. running water only from a spring many pipes still lead.. and IF they have electricity which usually they don't it is bare copper wires in a wooden strip wiuth a 1mm thick wooden divder on the walls that long since have rotted away...

buy each village does come with a bathhouse in the center (which was where woman used to do their laundry).. and a spring.. with permanent free springwater coming out. spa-quality.

you need about 1000m2 land to be FULLY self-sufficient with a margin per person.
(about 350m2 for vegetables and fruit growing and 650m2 in woodlands for firewood.

**a flock of goats 40 minimum to be self-reproducing. will be the greatest investment of land for a small community 80000m3 -> at this size it easely can provide all the milk and wool for upto 100 people. as well as some meat..
**a flock of chikens 80 orso needs just 2000m2.. which is enough to give 40 people an egg a day and 2 chickens to eat per year. so for 100 people that be 5000m2

so 200.000m3 land should allow our 20 house community to support easely 100 people.
land in france in that region is cheap about 5 m2 per euro so all that land will only add another 40k to your purchase price

so now your 90k in.
-> now you need to buy materials, like you need an anvil for a smith to repair and craft tools, woodworkers tools to get your carpenter going, landworking tools for your landworkers, spinning wheels and weaving tools for your seemstresses to turn the wool into clothing.. and likely some tanning and leatherworking tooks for your tanner/leatherworker, bee keeping tools cause you want a beekeeper for your only source of sweet.
+ an initial purchase of and heirloom seeds and saplings to get your farming going

buying stones and tiles and wood and plaster to repair your houses to their former glory likely will cost you the most... but if you not hire labour but offer people to spend the summer holiday for free + get served a meal in your village provided they put in some work.. those costs can be quite low. 10k per house in materials will thus suffice.


so there you are basicly 400k in and you got a fully functional pre-industrial self sufficient village going..

if you want to bring it slighly more to our age you could add a watermill + crude electric generator. with magnets.. and some old lightbulbs (the pre ww2 ones that basicly never break and that those houses already have some off anyway)
a few acres of beach or pine to make beach or pine tar with.. to burn in oil landars/torches can also help with lighting..

modern solarpanels, diesel generators & such will not be repairable by you and not truelly be offgrid. but sure buy them and add them if thats what you into..

the most limiting thing.. is find a wife crazy enough to want to live this preindustrial life with you.. + 19 other families who will not be slackers but each pick up one of the aformentioned roles in the village so it will run smoothly.

it is my dream for decades to one day build such a community..

[ナルゴ]

Mark one of these as the answer.

引用自 AdahnGorion：

The sane pick would be 1 million now and then investing them.
5 million in 10 years will be less and there are too many risk involved in the time.

引用自 MinionJoe：

$1 million now is worth more than $5 million in 10 years.

引用自 Sir Seanicus, Esq.：

In 10 years, the dollar will probably be gone. Enjoy your government good boy points as CBDC roll out lol.

A.) Fiat is a rapidly depreciating asset. Get the 1 million now and use it to buy real assets that appreciate in value.

B.) Waiting 10 years is a massive opportunity cost. You can make more than 5 million using that 1 million in the meantime.

[Morkonan]

引用自 Red：

Imagine if you were offered the choice of $1 million USD to take away now or $5 million USD after waiting 10 years, which option would you pick?

One Million now.

The investment opportunity cost and standard strategies on returns dictates that's the better move for someone in my age bracket and needs.

Also, I don't trust someone who say's they're going to give me five million if all I have to do is... wait a decade. I don't want to get mysteriously run over by a circus elephant while on my Arctic Algal Bloom vacation four years and 364 days in...

[Dutchgamer1982]

引用自 Nargo：

Mark one of these as the answer.

引用自 AdahnGorion：

The sane pick would be 1 million now and then investing them.
5 million in 10 years will be less and there are too many risk involved in the time.

引用自 MinionJoe：

$1 million now is worth more than $5 million in 10 years.

引用自 Sir Seanicus, Esq.：

In 10 years, the dollar will probably be gone. Enjoy your government good boy points as CBDC roll out lol.

A.) Fiat is a rapidly depreciating asset. Get the 1 million now and use it to buy real assets that appreciate in value.

B.) Waiting 10 years is a massive opportunity cost. You can make more than 5 million using that 1 million in the meantime.

fiat is not depreciating at 17.5% per year.. not is any investment gaining at 17.5% per year.

as such the best investment you can make low risk is saying no to that 1 million and recieve your 5 million 10 years from now.

ofcourse it will matter WHO is promising that 5 million later... if it is like a goverment than you can be reasonably be safe they be around 5 years from now to still pay it.. others.. vary in degree of trustworthyness..

and also wheither that right of 5 million is transferable... aka if I die before the 10 years are over.. if my inheritors also inherit that 5 million when the 10 year have passed.

I won't expect to die before I turn 52... would be HIGHLY irregulair.. but still it is a factor to calculate.

[ナルゴ]

引用自 Dutchgamer1982：

引用自 Nargo：

Mark one of these as the answer.

A.) Fiat is a rapidly depreciating asset. Get the 1 million now and use it to buy real assets that appreciate in value.

B.) Waiting 10 years is a massive opportunity cost. You can make more than 5 million using that 1 million in the meantime.

fiat is not depreciating at 17.5% per year.. not is any investment gaining at 17.5% per year.

as such the best investment you can make low risk is saying no to that 1 million and recieve your 5 million 10 years from now.

ofcourse it will matter WHO is promising that 5 million later... if it is like a goverment than you can be reasonably be safe they be around 5 years from now to still pay it.. others.. vary in degree of trustworthyness..

and also wheither that right of 5 million is transferable... aka if I die before the 10 years are over.. if my inheritors also inherit that 5 million when the 10 year have passed.

I won't expect to die before I turn 52... would be HIGHLY irregulair.. but still it is a factor to calculate.

Now consider the opportunity costs. For instance.

10 years ago Microsoft stock was only $44 per share.
With 1million back then, you could have bought about 20k shares.

Now a single share is $437.
437 x 20k

8,740,000.

Oh wow, that's already more than 5 million, and that's before considering the dividends. And that's just a safe bluechip investment.
Now imagine if that 1 million had been in a riskier bet like NVIDIA or Tesla. Now that's retirement money right there.

[N3tRunn3r]

引用自 Nargo：

...

10 years ago Microsoft stock was only $44 per share.
With 1million back then, you could have bought about 20k shares.

Now a single share is $437.
437 x 20k

8,740,000.

Oh wow, that's already more than 5 million, ...

it is a difference between knowing what has happened -- with stocks -- and what "may" happen in future with stocks . . . 1M to invest today is at a high risk for sure ..

for example into AI, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Tesla, or whatever . . .
no one will know . . .

your example is like talking about lottery numbers and to do a time travel back . . .
or to know to had invested into bitcoins 20 years ago . . .

bitcoins were offered to me as a package . . . 5 bitcoins for 80 EUR total . . .
sadly i was a poor teenager during that time, already hit the buy button, but my bank account said "no" . . .

as i understand what you are trying to explain here, it is non-sense ..

[ナルゴ]

引用自 N3tRunn3r：

引用自 Nargo：

...

10 years ago Microsoft stock was only $44 per share.
With 1million back then, you could have bought about 20k shares.

Now a single share is $437.
437 x 20k

8,740,000.

Oh wow, that's already more than 5 million, ...

it is a difference between knowing what has happened -- with stocks -- and what "may" happen in future with stocks . . . 1M to invest today is at a high risk for sure ..

for example into AI, NVIDIA, Microsoft, or whatever . . .
no one will know . . .

you example is like talking about lottery numbers and to do a time travel back . . .
or to know to had invested into bitcoins 20 years ago . . .

bitcoins were offered to me as a package . . . 5 bitcoins for 80 EUR total . . .
sadly i was a poor teenager during that time, already hit the buy button, but my bank account said "no" . . .

All it takes is being familiar with at least one industry. It's not gambling when you know what pieces are in place and where the market will go.
But I understand, not everyone is equipped with such insights.

[N3tRunn3r]

i would invest into something way different, i dont going to tell . . . not into nvidia, nor microsoft, nor AI . . . it is something you can or more likely "will" be able to literally "touch" it . .

and 1M wont do that cut, this useless piece of money . . .
this will cause more harm than freedom . . . to yourself and even to your environment . . .

[Stranger]

引用自 N3tRunn3r：

i would invest into something way different, i dont going to tell . . . not into nvidia, nor microsoft, nor AI . . .

and 1M wont do that cut, this useless piece of money . . .

does recapitalization fit into your schema, or would it make things worse?

[ナルゴ]

There are similar potentially high return investments one could make right now. Not solely in the stock market. That's the point. Hence why people are mentioning opportunity costs.

Make those investments now with 1 million, rather than wait 10 years for 5 million when those ships have already sailed.

[N3tRunn3r]

引用自 Nargo：

There are similar potentially high return investments one could make right now. Not solely in the stock market. That's the point. Hence why people are mentioning opportunity costs.

Make those investments now with 1 million, rather than wait 10 years for 5 million when those ships have already sailed.

yes, maybe

nonetheless, the world will look different in 10 years..
what is important of today will be useless in 10 years . . "AI" makes it possible . .

AI for example, no one needs AI programmers in 10 years anymore, hence in 2 years anymore, as the AI would program theirselves. . . a way different era in 10 years . . .

Maybe if you combine AI and cybernetics, this job as well as engineers will be still in demand . . .

Companies and Research Labs have wanted Python Programmers to code or script AI for past 5 years for example, which becomes "obsolete" in or within next 5 years . . .

Programmers in general become obsoleted pretty fast within next few years . . .
The "AI" programs an App in seconds, by "any" program language you want . . .
errm, the AI wants . . . for calculated efficiency, performance, stability, reliability, useage . . .

The "AI" already even blueprints more reliable assets and hardware for NASA and ESA . . .

Last year already, the AI for NASA and ESA has developed and designed a highly stable, dynamic and flexible component for spacecrafts and other builds. "weigh less, tolerate more stress, and require a fraction of the time parts designed by humans take to develop", an organic model. A human alone would had never known to get the idea to develop this . . .

This is exactly what I have meant ::

https://www.nasa.gov/technology/goddard-tech/nasa-turns-to-ai-to-design-mission-hardware/

1M will be blown away in hot air . . .

And whenever the AI becomes "autonomous", within next few years already, the AI stocks will fall into oblivion . . . as many many other things . . .

People never see "the big picture" . . . while being "egomaniacal" and/or brainwashed . . .
living in their small rooms, controlled by media, governments and religion . . .

Elon Musk sees the big picture for example . . . but he made a mistake with Twitter . . .
besides that he has done everything right . . . For the benefit of mankind . . .