2 buttons: win $1 million instantly or 50% chance of $50 million instantly

[apple]

Imagine you have 2 buttons to choose from: one button gives you a 100% chance of giving you $1 million instantly or press the other button which has a 50% chance of $50 million being given to you instantly (other 50% chance is you win zero money).

[Birds]

引用自 Triple G：

It´s probably the same for 90% of all people on the planet. But i guess as long as we´re all fine with it they do everything right, just because we let them. So it´s in fact "we" who do this, not "they" - while they aren´t really to blame to take advantage of the situation. I also guess 90% of the people would do that. Perhaps i reduce to 60%, as people who went through some ♥♥♥♥ are usually better at sharing...

Just sounds like excuses to me.

[Triple G]

引用自 Birds：

Just sounds like excuses to me.

This is how people get rich, and others not. The idea is that the people limit themselves. That´s why there is no upper limit to how much You can own or have. Works well. Not to have a fixed limit - also sounds like an excuse to me, because the voluntary approach obviously doesn´t work.

[☎need4naiim☎]

引用自 De Hollandse Ezel：

引用自 ☎need4naiim☎：

Can you imagine the level of regret once you choose the short stick? (you get 0 dollars after having a guaranteed one million dollars free of charge).

%50 chance is not a palpable chance to risk it over a guaranteed 1 million $. It is only worth to take the risk when the prize money is one trillion dollars, at least.

I mean, the level of regret is so high if it turns out to be other side, just 0 $. To better elaborate the matter; would you take the chance to lose your life by the flip of a coin? NOW, you get how high of a risk to go over 50%.

what regret?

if one makes the rational best choose.
one can accept the outcome whatever it may be.

i dont see a 1 mil and 50 millbutton.

i see 1 mil and 25 mil button.

1 million would not change my life that much.
50 million would.

i live in a nation that taxes higher incomes and wealthy way more.
as such just getting 1 million would only make trivial changes.. at best it means a 10% rise in income lifelong.

but 50 million.. now that I can invest enough off to even with inflation correction and taxes reducted to have a stable 10k income each month. taxfree

and 1 million wont buy you you a farm thats fully off the grid. 1 million barely buys you a 20m2 flat these days.. but 10 million will buy me a farm.

now having a fully off the grid farm with a permaculture garden + 40 million incesred to give me 10k a month income witg inflation correction forever..

now THATS life changing.

also as 50 million sets you for life i can get that in anotger nation where the taxburden us not so stiff.. 1 million does not.

We don't have 50 million $. I repeat:

WE DON'T HAVE ANY OF THAT $50M.

The thing is; we HAVE 1 million $ or flipping a coin for 50 million $ with empty pockets (we don't include any existing wealth into the equation).

[Swarmfly]

A million dollars alone will be more money than I will ever comfortably spend in a lifetime.

[Squingus]

ill take the million, put it into four different banks and live off of the interest forever, while working and investing the extra income into acreage

[ShadowShifterMarlith]

If the Conditions were that I was winning a lot & the Economy was doing well,
i'd then take the 50% Chance,
but if the Conditions were that I was loosing a lot, & the Economy was falling apart,
then I would take the Instant 1 Million...

Ahhh heck, even with 50% Odds are the Winner would be in California, or something,
I don't think i'd win, so i'd probably just take the Instant 1 Million, no matter what anyways...

[Larry Daley]

They make similar decisions on smaller scale money in Deal or No Deal. Seen a guy reject 25000 pounds in order to get a 50-50 chance at 100 000 pounds. He chose the 50-50 and lost lol

[DarkCrystalMethod]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXOjyv4d998

[De Hollandse Ezel]

引用自 ☎need4naiim☎：

引用自 De Hollandse Ezel：

what regret?

if one makes the rational best choose.
one can accept the outcome whatever it may be.

i dont see a 1 mil and 50 millbutton.

i see 1 mil and 25 mil button.

1 million would not change my life that much.
50 million would.

i live in a nation that taxes higher incomes and wealthy way more.
as such just getting 1 million would only make trivial changes.. at best it means a 10% rise in income lifelong.

but 50 million.. now that I can invest enough off to even with inflation correction and taxes reducted to have a stable 10k income each month. taxfree

and 1 million wont buy you you a farm thats fully off the grid. 1 million barely buys you a 20m2 flat these days.. but 10 million will buy me a farm.

now having a fully off the grid farm with a permaculture garden + 40 million incesred to give me 10k a month income witg inflation correction forever..

now THATS life changing.

also as 50 million sets you for life i can get that in anotger nation where the taxburden us not so stiff.. 1 million does not.

We don't have 50 million $. I repeat:

WE DON'T HAVE ANY OF THAT $50M.

The thing is; we HAVE 1 million $ or flipping a coin for 50 million $ with empty pockets (we don't include any existing wealth into the equation).

you dont have that 1 million either.

let me put if different if 1 million lottery tickets were sold at 1 euro each for r a grand price of 25 million.
i would spend all money on buying rickets.

after all thr average winninfs per ticket is 2.5 but the pruce is only 1.. so i gain 1.5 per bought ticket.

50% 0 + 50% 50 mil = average 25 mil.

so would you risk 1 million for a 50% change at 50 absolutely!
i would even take a loan for such a bet.
thats better than any investment on any stock you can msme.
those odds ar fantastiic!

so i look at it purely from mathemathics.
on average each push of button 2 will gain you 25 mil.
on average each push of button 1 will gain you 1 mil

and even beter the press a button is free.. so i risk nothing.

i have invested years of my life and 50000 euro just to earn an income that after taces is perhaps 500 more oer month..
(bruto wage may be double neth wage is very small siffereence due how our taces work)

iif you add up i could have worked those 4 years.. theats?another 100k lost..
so it be 25 years of wirking befire i break even...
true i have likely 35-40 wirking yeats so in the end o have gained about 250k more wage due a 150k upfront investment..

to 25 fold your investment.. unheared of..

so for me the choose is made rationillly the button that has 25 times the opportunity value. the 50% chance one.

even if I not wib. it was the right call.

to get ahead in life means taking risk.. from asking a girl out.. to decuding you drop that meeting and risk being fured when you hear somebody is on the hospital to make sure you are with them.. or finish the meeting and arrive 2 hour later..

it all boils down to what does it cosy.. what does ir gain and what are the odds.

50% on 50 i read as "a guaranteed 25" or so ir works in my mimd.
and if i loose.. well noting large is lost yeah a chance on 1 mill but nothing i will really miss like love or people or my life..

life is not safe.. and indeed you calculaye risk and what you can afford to risk.
i would ratger get fired than risk missing the chance saying goodvye to a loved one.
even if tgat lived one recovered.. i would npt mourn over ooosing my job..

this is cause that moment has infinity value for me i would not risk it for anything...

and if i would need money sp badly cause i am litterly starving or whatnot i might not be willing ro risk not winning a mil.

favt is i live fine rifht now fibancially. 1 mill would not alter my life that much.. so i would not risk that much.

dont get me wrong 1 mil is likely still a third to halve of what o will earn in my lifetime but after taxes and such are done basicly replaving all my current subsidities for taxes due how our taxcode nivilates incomes.m it merely adds very little ..

so i read ir 100% chance at 1 extra holiday a year (you still need to work you life stays thr same)
vs 50% chance on quitring my job and living the life as i always wanted on a self sufficuent farm.

[Irene ❤]

It's not about having a good life and doesn't need the $1 million. The question is not trying to measure life, nor is it asking for investment plans.

The whole point of the question is "will we continue to gamble". It can be asked in a different way - we just won $1 million, will we use that money to gamble a 2nd time for $50m?

To me the hidden trick is that it's no longer 50% but 25%. Because we gave up winning 1 million to go for 50m. So we gave up some chances and we actually gambled twice.

The chance of us winning both 1 million (using this win to bet further) and 50 million is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4. Only 25% left. For a 75% losing chance, We should just take the 1 million.

We joined the game with nothing, walk away with 1 million, we are winners.
The players who play the 50m game, if they failed, they are losers because they bet with 1 million and they lost it all.

[Triple G]

I´d rather say it is about the good life.

If You´re okay with Your life You´d risk the million.
If You´re unhappy with Your life You´d go for it.

(That theory excludes certain OCD cases)

[WaitandSee]

I would take the million now, put it in my bank and get the interest of A$4100 per month. Stack that on top of my existing savings at the same interest rate and I have well and truly enough to live off (At current interest rates).

[Back Yard Gamer]

Third option...I push neither.

[Phénomènes Mystiques]

They say that the first million is the hardest to make...

[Birds]

引用自 Wynters：

They say that the first million is the hardest to make... :csdsmile:

yeah because you have to cheat the system and not get caught somehow.

once you've figured out how to do that it doesn't really matter what you do anymore, if anything.