The Kremlin is ready for a war with NATO

[Mega Ultra Chicken]

Title

[grape cough syrup]

Why would Russia go to war with NATO?

[Q-T_3.14.exe]

Postat inițial de Obedear:

Why would Russia go to war with NATO?

Reason: It would be funny.

[Hobbit XIII]

Postat inițial de Morkonan:

Postat inițial de Hobbit XIII:

Yep that is true if Russia can take Ukraine. which they will not be able to.
They would have to suppress the area the size of Ukraine even if it wiped out the current Ukrainian military along the front lines.

I'm not sure how that works out. If they shoot someone in the face, they don't have to "suppress" that person. If there's enough people being shot in the face and... no more dissent. It sounds barbaric, but nobody is going to do anything about them doing exactly that.

Besides, you don't see Russia being worried about what to do if/when they win, right? You know, the reason they started this war? They didn't "not" start it because they were worried about what they'd do if they won it.

Ukraine will be if not already manufacturing drone technology and orders are in with a weapons manufacturer cant remember which one off top my head to start producing weapons / ammunition in Ukraine.

That's just sort of incidental. It doesn't mean Russia can't win if Ukraine gets a drone and ammo factory. (Yes, they have some ammo factories working/being built/etc. For drones, I know they have plenty of kitbash spots and they probably have something to mfr their own.)

A Russian victory at this stage would look like they keep most the land they have right now gained and the ammunitions and funding is stopped being given to Ukraine.

But, if they can do that, then there's no reason not to just keep fighting. And, if Ukraine successfully sells an "end to hostilities" or a cease-fire, that just means that Russia would win if Ukraine didn't do that. Best case - Russia takes a break, restocks, trains and moves more cohesive divisions in, restarts the war.

Russia has broken a dozen treaties or so with Ukraine. (All of them, now, of course) So, what's one more? They break them as fast as they are made.

If America stopped funding Ukraine I could see other countries anti Russia piling in to assist with boots on the ground if they had sense. I know India is not an ally to the UK another country where the business class rule with the veil of democracy and oppression is acceptable.

Turkey a country that is a weak point in NATO.

Interesting times ahead if Ukraine gets less support from the USA.

If support for Ukraine does not increase, Russia will most definitely just continue the war, likely ramping up to full mobilization. And, it's possible Russia could win in a couple of years without significant setbacks even if Ukraine continued to receive the same level of support it's getting now.

Russia/Kremlin/Putin doesn't care about personnel losses. It's people might, but as long as they're being told there are Nazis to fight, it's a patriotic war for them.

If Russia uses its military head it would be rolling out manufacturing and real training for its recruits and retraining soldiers and keeping them back from the front lines and be prepared for their own spring offensive.
A major purge through its forces of bad practices and a renewed doctrine.

I feel they'll have all that by time for the Spring offensive next year. Ukraine must actively continue to attrit the forces on the ground at a greater rate than they can be replaced.

If Russia goes into general mobilization, Ukraine can not do that without a major offensive or WonderWeapons.

For both Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine would favor "blast them flat with artillery forever" as a way to attrit forces without going on the offensive. As long as they can do that, provided Russian forces cooperate, and not lose artillery units, then they can keep Russia on its back heels, so to speak. But, that's ammo that must be supplied at ridiculous rate because this is the style of war these post-Soviet nations have been taught to fight. (The West doesn't allow enemy artillery to fire more than once and, if it does, everything will be brought to bear on the problem until there is no problem.)

Zelensky is right they needed the F 16 training much sooner.

It sounds great. But, supporting those aircraft, using them properly, and winning air battles (wtf are those really, anyway) takes much more than F-16s. Where's the support elements, other support-role aircraft, etc? Projecting force with them may not be as easy as anyone thinks. Defensively? Maybe, but they need good support for that too and one doesn't win a war "defensively," especially against someone that has more to throw at the fight.

Ukraine pilots are training now. But, if they expect to use F-16s as a war-winner, it ain't gonna happen. It would take those, support for them, and a giant push to support them in order to gain and hold ground. That has not yet happened even in situations where F-16s wouldn't be doing much.

I would like to have seen the 656 squadron in the black sea deployed as a Russian style warning to Putin touch the grain ships and they will protect them.

An "Apache" squadron? (Just did a brief lookup) I think Ukraine has established an alternate route, but it may not be able to move as much and may get some pushback by some countries it would have to move through.

As depleted as the British military has been thanks to the tories, it has proved its kit in relatively green troops can do some serious damage. So with the discipline (and hopefully the removal of restraints of engagement) of the British Army and its kit along with other European nations Russia will have a difficult time even if it did demolish Ukrainian forces and had to go on an occupational war searching for guerrillas in Ukraine and to deal with the European armies that could also threaten its own land.

IF Russia attacked a NATO country, things would be different - NATO would be at war and that is that. But, if they can defeat Ukraine, there's nothing stopping them from taking everything else as things stand, now.

So, next up, in that case, Moldova for certain - They have already established a "break-away/separatist" region there with troops in it. Georgia - Because why not, they've been arguing with them since before the Russo-field-parade through Georgia. Azerbaijan? Maybe/probably. Or, just let Iran have it as payment for prosecuting a full war against Israel? That would be a nice distraction for everyone. Belarus? A puppet. (Ignoring the 'Stans, because everyone else does)

Then, the Baltics and general War. (Would it stay conventional, though? Anyone want to nuke Russia to save Estonia? How would Finland feel about that? Latvia? What about whoever else is downwind?

So, who and when would Europe or NATO or anyone rush to defend? Moldova? Nope. Georgia? Nope. Azerbaijan? Nope. The Baltics? Well, now we're talking... That's NATO these days.

The only real question is the order... Moldova is a definite, either outright or as a puppet. The rest depends on Russia's feelings about what the rest of the world is going to do.

And, if China then goes into Taiwan, it's only the US and maybe Japan (Though, it would be high-stakes for them.) to stop them as South Korea may have its own issues. Will anyone answer that particular call if Russia is moving on Europe?


The Point - Nobody can allow Russia to win and NOT expect something like this to occur.

Note: Armchair Generalling with pride... :)

A lot of half truths there sorry to say.
- researcher from days in various security roles, playing an arm chair general.

[Morkonan]

Postat inițial de Hobbit XIII:

...

A lot of half truths there sorry to say.
- researcher from days in various security roles, playing an arm chair general.

Alarmist? A lot of maybeso's?

Maybe.

But, is there any doubt as to the likelihood of continued aggression if Russia defeats Ukraine?

That would be a victory against everyone its people consider to be an enemy. After all, propaganda has decidedly gone down the list of enemies and stuck them in this conflict, sometimes directly, claiming those soldiers are actually fighting for Ukraine. As far as State Media is concerned, the whole thing is NATO and the US's fault and those are the ones continuing this "Operation" alongside Nazis. ie: Public sentiment, war weariness, patriotic funerals, will not serve to dampen enthusiasm in hope of the citizenry petitioning a deaf government.

[Auckes]

Postat inițial de Dutchgamer1982:

usa counts money & goods
***1 billion spend and 10 billion of russian material destroyed is a win
****1 tank of us destroyed, and 10 russian ones destroyed is a win

as russia also has the weaker economy.. this means than eventually russia will run out of war material before ukraine will.
-> by that metric ukraine is winning.

russia counts in manpower
ukraine has a manpower pool of about 500k of which currently about 150k (30%) are dead so 300-350k remaining.
russia has a manpower pool of 1300k of which currently about 300k are dead, so about a million remaining.

so while ukraine does kill 2 russians for every ukrainian dying.. ukraine at that rate will run out of man, with russia still 300-400k man left.
-> and thats without russian conscripting more manpower.. as russia has a vastly larger pool of population to conscript from than ukraine..

----------------
so basicly it is a war of what runs out sooner, ukraine out of man, or russia out of war material.

Only that ukraine constantly runs out of war materials. The more time passes, the more they beg for more. And now that Republicans halt donations, Poland stopped, Fico prevents donations, Orban won't even send anything at all and previous donors half their supplies or halt them. And way beyond that, not only the entire NATO reserves have been almost depleted, coupled with the re-shift of "interest" towards Israel instead of ukraine... But Russia has 10x upped military production, bypassing sanctions.

In economy, recently Russia was nominated the strongest economy in european continent surpassing Germany and UK and 5th in a worldwide scale, the sanctions backfired to the ones imposing them and there is no shortage of all goods, or lack of trade.

Besides, countries like China aid actively Russia, countries like Turkey who cut deals with whomever they can allow them profit aid Russia behind the scenes and independent enterpreneurs, coming from even the most adamant ukranian supporters, carry russian oil/fuel like Greek shipowners.

And then, there is support. All BRICKS+ members cheer for Russia and get some spoils (captured NATO gear has been sent for reverse-engineering in various countries). African South calls Russia "family" and ousted the western neo-colonist, vulture scum.

The fight has already been decided. Unless NATO mobilizes directly against Russia itself, which will never happen, because they are incompetent cowards.

[pasa]

Postat inițial de Obedear:

Why would Russia go to war with NATO?

Of course they won't Though they can stomp some countries that believe nato will protect them. Like if the baltics keep ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ with K area, they may get the same treatment as ukraine: a nice fat land-bridge to connect the territories.

Then all those with the nato flag would finally face the music and see how the text in Art.5 means nothing of substance. That so wonderful economy could not do as much as produce 1/10th of the 155mm shelss needed for the proxy war it runs.

Nato assets look impressive on the excel sheet as it counts $$$$ and anything there is overpriced at least 10x. And personnel figures have all the "staff". I.e UK contributes with some 220k. Formidable, is it? As long as you don;t realize that of that only 15-20k are soldiers, and less then half of even those could be deployed to fight right on. The war capability stops at being able to bomb Serbia from afar. But even the "♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥" could not be defeated.

And the paper tiger got revealed for good, so the old bullying will no longer work. Who want to bet the block will even be together 5 years ahead?

[A&A]

how many Su57s they have? Oh...

[Vote Quimby]

Postat inițial de Obedear:

Why would Russia go to war with NATO?

It is a propaganda. People should FEAR, it disables common sense and critical thinking.

There is actualy a movie(I forgot it's name) where the astronauts return to earth, and all the inhabitants of the earth have become gay. This is explained by the fact that humanity needs a lot of people for a galactic war, and in an ordinary family so many are not born. This movie is kinda example how people get manipulated.

[Hobbit XIII]

Postat inițial de Morkonan:

Postat inițial de Hobbit XIII:

...

A lot of half truths there sorry to say.
- researcher from days in various security roles, playing an arm chair general.

Alarmist? A lot of maybeso's?

Maybe.

But, is there any doubt as to the likelihood of continued aggression if Russia defeats Ukraine?

That would be a victory against everyone its people consider to be an enemy. After all, propaganda has decidedly gone down the list of enemies and stuck them in this conflict, sometimes directly, claiming those soldiers are actually fighting for Ukraine. As far as State Media is concerned, the whole thing is NATO and the US's fault and those are the ones continuing this "Operation" alongside Nazis. ie: Public sentiment, war weariness, patriotic funerals, will not serve to dampen enthusiasm in hope of the citizenry petitioning a deaf government.

"Alarmist? A lot of maybeso's?

Maybe."
It was worth reading just for that line :)

A bit Germany WW1 getting people fired up and off goes the brightest and most useful (as well as the most gullible) to get killed off and contribute to brain drain.
A lot of intelligent and good people from England too gone.

Russia can keep drawing on its population like it always does and it will get thicker and thicker.

If Russia did win it's supplies would be very limited as it tried to keep hold of Ukraine hence the drones mentioned easier for Ukraine to build them close by than Russia can to supply across the country.
Geurrilla warfare would be very effective at keeping costs up to maintain an illusion of control.

True the propaganda mill tells the ignorant Russian 'we are fighting the NATO! look how we are doing arnt we wonderful! '
If it did spark a fight outside of Ukraine, Moldova would be in a tough spot whatever side eventually got control after the wrestle for power would never be able to go to the other side.
Same with Hungary and Slovakia.
At this stage I am hoping Hungary and Slovakia just get kicked out of NATO and the EU.

Eventually the death toll would have to make the Russian constantly question just what is going on....but then look at WW2 in germany they still carried on regardless

[NW/RL]

If Russia wants war with NATO they want nuclear war because that's the only way they could do any significant damage in the state they're in

[MEGA MAN]

dont talk and show something im gettin tired

[Bagel]

Guys, I feel really bad for calling russians, orcs in the past.

I mean, I feel bad for the orcs, if there are any.

russian wehrmacht is more like the Zerg from Starcraft not orcs that's why they paint the Z on their tanks.

[Abaddon the Despoiler]

Postat inițial de Auckes:

Postat inițial de Hobbit XIII:

Oh and in the daily express bit of a trash publication newspaper in the UK some researcher says this :

On November 29, military data researcher Ragnar Gudmundsson revealed statistics highlighting the dire situation. According to his findings, Kremlin troop casualties averaged 994 men killed per day during the previous week. Shockingly, over 25,000 Russian service personnel have either lost their lives or suffered severe injuries in combat in Ukraine throughout the month of November.

the msn live blog says the same and other things :

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-baby-injured-and-families-trapped-under-rubble-as-putin-s-troops-hit-record-losses/ar-AA1kLraf

Kyivpost says :

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24877

Another publication says about 300k Russian soldiers casulaties according to a picture from the Ukrainian ministry and :

5000+ tanks
9800 armored personnel vehicles
7200 artillery systems
844 mlrs
560 anti aircraft systems
321 aircraft
324 helicopters
5400 UAV operational tactical level
20 warships / boats
1 submarine
9500 vehicles
1000 special equipment

Now, THAT was a broadcast on planet Zod!

Postat inițial de Cernunnos:

What the hell?

Russia can't even handle Ukraine, a small country without a "world power" military force.

Do you honestly think Russia could handle NATO, a union of countries with serious military power?

That was a "Clausewitz" strategy, which worked. The attrition war is being won by a single country, against 50 ones banded together and constantly aiding ukraine. Also, Germany itself doesn't even have a single battle-ready batallion and it cannot hold for more than a couple of days, during war. Some Leopard tanks that were sent to ukraine, were thrashed day 1 with crews in their belly; crews made of sissy Germans whispering before dying: "Nicht schießen"!

NATO tactics are a joke, they do not have hypersonic missiles for military deployment, their nuclear capabilities lag behind Russia's. NATO is a criminal org of cowards, who gang up on their target. Incompetent ones, at that!

Did you hit your head when you climbed out of the abortionists bucket?

[Phénomènes Mystiques]

They can't even defeat Ukraine. 🙃

[Morkonan]

Postat inițial de Hobbit XIII:

"Alarmist? A lot of maybeso's?

Maybe."
It was worth reading just for that line :)

Which is why it was there. :)

I don't have real data. I ain't got nuthin' but talkin' heads and thinktank publications. But, "the good stuff" is too good for anyone to have access to who isn't supposed to have access to. And, even if I did?

I once watched a goldfish try to figure out what was on the TV screen. And, there ya go... If I was like the intel people, watching movements over time, familiar with all that was involved, privy to what those who shouldn't know don't know, then I'd be a bit more of an informed goldfish.

But, when I look at things and make predictions, I may check back in a few weeks to see if I was right. I don't do too bad, but it's not anything useful - They're blatantly obvious. Water is wet, fire is hot, Ukraine must interdict enemy logistics and nobody has ever interdicted rail supply by blowing up rail lines when the enemy can rebuild them. ATACMS will now help with that. But, for how long can they do that without controlling major hubs? And, at what cost and rate? And, how much attrition can those units take, themselves? But, that's not saying anything new to people in the know.

A bit Germany WW1 getting people fired up and off goes the brightest and most useful (as well as the most gullible) to get killed off and contribute to brain drain.
A lot of intelligent and good people from England too gone.

Russia can keep drawing on its population like it always does and it will get thicker and thicker.

Criminal conscripts are bullet stoppers. Russian frontline units are being stacked with soldiers with three-weeks of training - "Point rifle this way, Uri. Good. Now, go." But, if they can beat the attrition war, which they can, then they can start a real war by training, equipping, concentrating, and focusing efforts. Ukraine can't win that war tomorrow without having more help, now.

Russia could have another 300k conscript-level troops if they mobilize. If they can mobilize without having to just send the majority of those troops straight into the various meat-grinders scattered along the front, then that allows them to build something dangerous.

In this goldfish's opinion... ITGO

If Russia did win it's supplies would be very limited as it tried to keep hold of Ukraine hence the drones mentioned easier for Ukraine to build them close by than Russia can to supply across the country.

Sure, but then they can just pause and resupply, rearrange however they wish, take a break and go to the beach while the trains get set up and stockpiles grow.

After all, their victory requires good men to do nothing... And, is anyone going to say "No, you can't be allowed to win, Russia" except Ukraine? In a meaningful way? Nope.

They planned to win this war. That's why they started it. Things didn't go according to their three day/three week, plan, though. And, we can see that even if we didn't know the plan - They ran out of stuff very quickly. Shortages galore. No supplies or equipment was issued for an extended campaign. Wagner wasn't the only group not getting what they needed. That land bridge didn't turn out to be so great for moving materiel they didn't have. Why? Because they didn't plan on what we're seeing now. They planned on a forty-km column of very expensive units making it to where they were supposed to go, else they wouldn't have just stopped on the highway for the scenic view. They knew they couldn't force it to make a desperate push to within artillery range of Kyiv because that column didn't have the supplies for a long, desperate, push.

So, they started running out of stuff and Putin made some phone calls. Their reserves must be closed to being tapped out, even with continued production. They've got a supply agreement with DPRK and China is surely selling them more than paint-ball helmets.

Now, if they can get ahead of the curve, they become very dangerous. Ukraine must keep that curve going up.

ITGO :)

Geurrilla warfare would be very effective at keeping costs up to maintain an illusion of control.

I agree. But, I don't know that all Ukrainians are going to be willing to walk out the own front door and start shooting. MANY have done exactly that. But, if they push through and capture Kyiv, which isn't possible now, but that situation could change, and Ukrainians don't have that to look to for encouragement, then what?

If someone walks in and says "Everything tomorrow will be better than it is today" then how many people will agree to that if today really, really, sucks? What if a tank is parked in their yard?

ITGO Alarmist Mode :)

True the propaganda mill tells the ignorant Russian 'we are fighting the NATO! look how we are doing arnt we wonderful! '
If it did spark a fight outside of Ukraine, Moldova would be in a tough spot whatever side eventually got control after the wrestle for power would never be able to go to the other side.

Russia may have drawn out some of the units in Moldova. I don't remember what happened with those. But, they were for a purpose, just like what happened when they moved into separatist regions in Ukraine. IF Russia wins Ukraine, they're assets to be used no matter how strenuously Moldova objects. (Just a couple hundred or so, IIRC. Nothing major, but they do have a controlled region to bunk in.)

Same with Hungary and Slovakia.
At this stage I am hoping Hungary and Slovakia just get kicked out of NATO and the EU.

Insulation?

It's not an easy thing to be an Independent in Europe, these days. There are chairs with new place-settings at the table in Belgium to attest to that.

Eventually the death toll would have to make the Russian constantly question just what is going on....but then look at WW2 in germany they still carried on regardless

I don't think KIA reports matter to anyone in Russia. I know the families are devastated, just like anyone would be. Human is human. But, culturally, politically, and as long as the propaganda is controlled, socially... it doesn't matter. It could be "The Great Patriotic War" all over again.

(Prigozhin, if he hadn't had been a sucker, could have had some effect. But, he was teh dumb... I think he's in bits, somewhere. He is a was. His brand of bravado was attractive to a lot of Russians, though.)

And, I'm sure you know that those KIAs actually have to happen for it to matter. If the loss rate is what it is on the lines, right now, but you're gaining ground... it's just blood-per-meter at that point. Every km of lost ground is an order or magnitude more important to Ukraine than the cost to achieve it is to Russia.

If they can manage 50-100k well-supported troops with as much of a combined arms approach as they can manage, then what? They can do that if they exceed the rate of attrition and can gather, train, equip forces for it. At that point, it's a matter of "how did they screw up and can Ukraine take advantage of it?" I don't think their commanders are stupid, they just don't have the sledgehammer their doctrine needs in order to work.

ITGO :)