Do Societies Inevitably Collapse?

[nextgengranny]

A recent thread here in OT raised the question for me: Do societies inevitably collapse? Which led me to this piece on the topic:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse

One line in particular caught my eye:

Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence.

government loses control of its monopoly on violence

its monopoly on violence


I'm not a student of history, I lack the facility for it, so would be interested in hearing the thoughts of those more versed in it. Also: Thoughts/opinions on governments monopolizing/attempting to monopolize violence?

[Captain n00by]

USA, EU, Russia and China could all collapse in future.

USA gets split into "The New South" and "Democratic Pan-American Unity".

EU breaks up completely, with France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the UK seeking to re-establish old empires and the Eastern Slavic countries connecting more to Russia.

Russia after the death of Putin (either natural cause or assassination) sees an internal turmoil and rise of either far right ultra-nationalists or far left neo Marxists on the power, with Islamic minority seeking separation from the mainland.

China sees another outbreak of a deadly new virus which suffocates the life and economy in the country, forcing the currently ruling Communist Party of China to make drastic changes in it's nomenclature and to declare "Federal Democracy".

Israel probably won't collapse, but what happens when Iran develops nuclear weapons and gives them over to Hamas? (probably another "cold war", middle East version)

[Holografix]

Lots of hyperbole on this thread. Lots of political scientists, lawyers, and fortune tellers too.

[Uncle Sam]

Radene님이 먼저 게시:

Mr. H.U.N.K.님이 먼저 게시:

Agreed, fellow citizen. I personally would like to add this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9TviIuXPSE

"Those who did not learn from history are doomed to get their butts kicked by the nerds that did."

In a nutshell, yes. We're at the end of another secular cycle, in this case the end of PAX Americana, like how the late 1800 - early 1900 was the end of PAX Britannica, we're however slowly headed to a multi polar world.

Also would like to add this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeVyfiP0cLk

[Radene]

Mr. H.U.N.K.님이 먼저 게시:

Radene님이 먼저 게시:

"Those who did not learn from history are doomed to get their butts kicked by the nerds that did."

In a nutshell, yes. We're at the end of another secular cycle, in this case the end of PAX Americana, like how the late 1800 - early 1900 was the end of PAX Britannica, we're however slowly headed to a multi polar world.

And that's a bad thing, why?

[permanent name]

Holografix님이 먼저 게시:

Lots of hyperbole on this thread. Lots of political scientists, lawyers, and fortune tellers too.

yes it's as if somebody got mad that the thread wasn't derailed and that they were insulted for doomsaying.

and a whole bunch of ideological heroes jumped in to actualize their fears, each individually believing the others to be genuine rather than ironic.

behold, the collapse of civil discussion.

[pants]

Holografix님이 먼저 게시:

Lots of hyperbole on this thread. Lots of political scientists, lawyers, and fortune tellers too.

Yeah, I've read Turtledove novels that were better.

[permanent name]

it takes everyone to make society work, and it takes one person to tear it down.

[AdahnGorion]

Define societies

[Captain n00by]

temporary name님이 먼저 게시:

Holografix님이 먼저 게시:

Lots of hyperbole on this thread. Lots of political scientists, lawyers, and fortune tellers too.

yes it's as if somebody got mad that the thread wasn't derailed and that they were insulted for doomsaying.

and a whole bunch of ideological heroes jumped in to actualize their fears, each individually believing the others to be genuine rather than ironic.

behold, the collapse of civil discussion.

Noone thought something like "Islamic State" could have formed, a few years back.

WIth a bigger budget (thanks, Saudis!), a more fertile ground (war in Syria is a mess) and more support (you don't declare war with everyone *before* you grow big), we could have seen a new 3rd Reich, Islamic version.

[pants]

ROATER님이 먼저 게시:

gorse님이 먼저 게시:

Yeah, I've read Turtledove novels that were better.

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Authority

well thank g_d i didn't cite an authority and instead just made a glib comment based on a famous alt-history author that i don't even like

unfortunately, Holografix is really in for it!!!!!!!

[Uncle Sam]

n00by님이 먼저 게시:

USA, EU, Russia and China could all collapse in future.

USA gets split into "The New South" and "Democratic Pan-American Unity".

EU breaks up completely, with France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the UK seeking to re-establish old empires and the Eastern Slavic countries connecting more to Russia.

Russia after the death of Putin (either natural cause or assassination) sees an internal turmoil and rise of either far right ultra-nationalists or far left neo Marxists on the power, with Islamic minority seeking separation from the mainland.

China sees another outbreak of a deadly new virus which suffocates the life and economy in the country, forcing the currently ruling Communist Party of China to make drastic changes in it's nomenclature and to declare "Federal Democracy".

Israel probably won't collapse, but what happens when Iran develops nuclear weapons and gives them over to Hamas? (probably another "cold war", middle East version)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW68goC4_es

That sounds like a interesting turn of events, sounds like we got black swan event after black swan event with a few ripple effects & butterfly effect throw into the mix.

In any case time will tell, I say China might implode due it's critical political issues that are very old & yet to be fixed. As we're speaking they're in a race against the clock demographics wise. If they want to do any "important" move like annexing Taiwan, returning the favor of WW2 Nanking to Japan & the opium wars to the UK, among other things.

They must do it before 2050.

I digress, here's a few videos about the issues China has atm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgVXRtq5EIg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRUc4gTO-PE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y87R3Lp0jd0

As for any more geopolitical data, I highly recommend to everybody in this thread that got a bit of spare time, to read the Global Trends reports 2040 (153ish pages long) & 2035 (258ish pages long).

Also here's a video about secular cycles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeVyfiP0cLk

[Uncle Sam]

Radene님이 먼저 게시:

Mr. H.U.N.K.님이 먼저 게시:

In a nutshell, yes. We're at the end of another secular cycle, in this case the end of PAX Americana, like how the late 1800 - early 1900 was the end of PAX Britannica, we're however slowly headed to a multi polar world.

And that's a bad thing, why?

Not exactly a bad thing, as per history standards everything is going as expected. Besides AI & the DNA modification tech, there isn't any "not seen before" black swan event AFAIK.

[Radene]

n00by님이 먼저 게시:

temporary name님이 먼저 게시:

yes it's as if somebody got mad that the thread wasn't derailed and that they were insulted for doomsaying.

and a whole bunch of ideological heroes jumped in to actualize their fears, each individually believing the others to be genuine rather than ironic.

behold, the collapse of civil discussion.

Noone thought something like "Islamic State" could have formed, a few years back.

That's patently false. The possibility of a radical Islamic faction trying to seize control over the region has been discussed often.

[permanent name]

n00by님이 먼저 게시:

political derailment

yeah I have all kinds of things to say about that, but it's a political derailment.

a lot of the people derailing this thread into politics are just salty that this topic isn't closed yet, obviously.

Radene님이 먼저 게시:

n00by님이 먼저 게시:

Noone thought something like "Islamic State" could have formed, a few years back.

That's patently false. The possibility of a radical Islamic faction trying to seize control over the region has been discussed often.

yes, it was widely considered one of the possible and likely outcomes of the US' repeated interference in middle eastern governments. infact, it was considered inevitable, and the US spent decades manipulating the region under the guise of forestalling it.

the root cause is Israel in all honesty.

[pants]

THE GRIM DARK FUTURE:

The USA experiences a civil war. The two sides are people who do brunch, and those who do not.

Putin dies, leaving Russia still a ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ that treats its citizens like serfs. This is because this is how Russia works. It's Cheeki Breeki.

In the Middle-East, some war happens. Probably. And some rich guy probably builds a big tower or something.

China invades Taiwan with questionable aliexpress/wish sex toys. Taiwan surrenders immediately.

Australia's Labor party add the U back in.

The European Union renames itself to the Trade Federation, and starts interfering with politics on the planet of Naboo