What will happen to the GPU market if Nvidia stop making GPUs?

[Alxndr]

According to Nvidia's Revenue breakdown for 2024, GPU sales accounted for just 13% of their revenue with data center GPUs making up a whopping 85% of their revenue. Clearly it's way more valuable to focus on data center GPUs than gaming GPUs.

So if Nvidia decides it's just not worth it and stops producing gaming GPUs then the only other option is AMD. I guess there's Intel as well but let's be honest, who's buying Intel GPUs over AMD?

Imagine a world where your only realistic option is 1... AMD would have a literal global monopoly on gaming GPUs. Maybe they'd make amazing GPUs at low prices, or more likely they'll use this monopoly to their advantage and copy Nvidia but it'll be way way worse because we simply wouldn't have any other option.

Considering how much of the world uses computers, it's remarkable that there's only 2 options for CPUs (Intel / AMD) and 2 options for GPUs (Nvidia / AMD).

And no it's not the same as the smartphone market because there's a handful of brands to pick from.

And before people dismiss this argument, there's a very real possibility Nvidia will cease their gaming GPU arm of the company because the profit they make is pennies compared to their data center arm.

Personally I think the PC gaming market is the most fragile it's ever been. Too many games are being designed with the expectation of frame gen / dlss as default. Poorly optimised heaps of trash, and now we're facing the possibility of one of the big players in the GPU market pulling out.

Maybe Meta or Google will fill the void I don't know but we need way more competition in this space, not less.

[Ocelote.12]

If NVIDIA stops making graphics cards, then maybe Intel will be AMD's competitor. Or is Intel going bankrupt?

[Rumpelcrutchskin]

Guess then you will be paying $3000 for AMD GPU.

[VoiD]

I don't think that can happen.

Nvidia is focusing on what makes them money, sure, so all the faulty low quality hardware left over from their main project gets turned into GPUs and sold to gamers.

If they couldn't sell their trash they'd need to pay to get it discarded, there's no reason to do that.

[C1REX]

Diposting pertama kali oleh Alxndr:

And before people dismiss this argument, there's a very real possibility Nvidia will cease their gaming GPU arm of the company because the profit they make is pennies compared to their data center arm.

It's true that Nvidia makes 10x more money on data center products, but I don't believe Nvidia is considering quitting gaming. There is a challenge of very limited TSMC capacity, so currently, Nvidia has to choose between producing more profitable AI products or sacrificing income on gaming products. But it's their choice and strategy.

However, they can go back to Samsung to make their gaming products or find another way if there is enough demand. TSMC is building more foundries around the world. Maybe not as advanced as their main one in Taiwan, but probably good enough for gaming GPUs. So Nvidia has options to make money on gaming products instead of losing money.

Even if Nvidia quits and only AMD remains, there is always a silver lining to everything. GPU stagnation would mean less need to upgrade, similar to the period of Intel domination and CPU stagnation when 8 year old CPUs were still good enough and not much slower than the newest, overpriced products.

[Karumati]

We gonna be doomed then, amd gpu never again.
Terrible drivers.

[AmaiAmai]

Nothing because despite what the sheets show, their company is still exposed and subject to the market just as any other. To close off a stream of revenue esp. one where you have a monopoly is not just stupid; it's braindead.

Also, check this list out:

https://www.top500.org/lists/top500/2024/11/

Why is it relevant? If the top supercomputers aren't locked to Nvidia's ecosystem that means that a LOT can change should software patterns move to more open and cross-platform standards.

Oh wait, it is already happening...

[Dutchgamer1982]

nvidea already stopped making gpus.

-they put 0 money in r&d thus the 3000, 4000 and 5000 series are just all rebranded 2000 series that are overvolted amd overclocked.

with real dedicated r&d the wattage had stayed the same and a 5090 would use 250w not 600w.

-the second way this shows is even with these idiotic powerdraws.. the real world gains are pityfull..
they try to mask this with adding the scraps from their ai dividion with adding ai cores on gpus and dlss crap nobody wants and turns off.

-third way this shows is by them alocating waaay to little production capacity.. basicly any silicon making capacity that can be used for ai is used for ai.. leaving the gpu market with to little to meet demand..

and desite all this they get away with asking 3 times more than what these cards should cost.. due no real competition..

[A&A]

OP, you forgot how much these data center GPUs cost.

Here some prices
RTX4090 - 1600$ MSRP
RTX6000 Ada Lovelance - 6800$ MSRP
L40 - Surely it is around 10k MSRP

3 GPUs with the same chip, but different silicon quality (very important) and features.

[90054321564584560]

Others will rise up dont you worry

[wesnef]

"just 13% of their revenue" is still a lot to a big company. That's no reason for them to stop producing consumer GPUs.

[Haruspex]

Diposting pertama kali oleh Rumpelcrutchskin:

Guess then you will be paying $3000 for AMD GPU.

Right. The fact that AMD has delayed the release of the RX 9070 until Nvidia makes a move proves that the only reason AMD is priced cheaper is because Nvidia exists as competition. Without Nvidia, AMD would become ridiculous.

[Monk]

Diposting pertama kali oleh Dutchgamer1982:

nvidea already stopped making gpus.

-they put 0 money in r&d thus the 3000, 4000 and 5000 series are just all rebranded 2000 series that are overvolted amd overclocked.

with real dedicated r&d the wattage had stayed the same and a 5090 would use 250w not 600w.

-the second way this shows is even with these idiotic powerdraws.. the real world gains are pityfull..
they try to mask this with adding the scraps from their ai dividion with adding ai cores on gpus and dlss crap nobody wants and turns off.

-third way this shows is by them alocating waaay to little production capacity.. basicly any silicon making capacity that can be used for ai is used for ai.. leaving the gpu market with to little to meet demand..

and desite all this they get away with asking 3 times more than what these cards should cost.. due no real competition..

You really have no idea what you are on about do you, like, completely disconnected from reality.

[C1REX]

Diposting pertama kali oleh wesnef:

"just 13% of their revenue" is still a lot to a big company. That's no reason for them to stop producing consumer GPUs.

You are right, but it's also not that simple. Nvidia's, AMD's, and Intel's GPUs are made by TSMC in Taiwan, and they have very limited capacity. They basically have a monopoly on top end silicon. The whole world is dependent on TSMC. With the current AI boom, Nvidia is "losing" money on gaming GPUs when they could use their allocation for more profitable products. They need to balance how little they can make to not lose too much money, but also not lose too much of the gaming market. AMD has to make a similar balancing act with gaming GPUs, AI products, consoles and laptops. Laptops is where they want to take market share from Intel and where they need a huge capacity to do so. So AMD might not be very motivated to take gaming market right now and lose more important markets.

This wouldn't be the case if TSMC had real competition or unlimited capacity. TSMC also needs to balance how much they can charge - as much as possible, but not to the point where Nvidia would go back to Samsung or Intel would use their own foundries. However, TSMC is so good and so ahead that they can charge Nvidia and AMD big money, especially for their top end 3nm.

So Nvidia is currently in a position of a worker who can work 8h and needs to decide how many hours will spend in a place where they get paid $15/h vs $150/h. And Nvidia still decides to do some less paid work done.

[Sigma957]

Something wonderful will happen.

I'd like to see what their debt to profit ratio is.

[Monk]

That stuff is all public information, look it up if you want to know.