How will China's GPU ban affect the next-generation Nvidia and AMD GPUs?

[C1REX]

If I understand correctly, the 4090 is only the first GPU to be banned, and anything more powerful for AI training will also be banned.

How do you think this will affect the next generation, like the 5090, 5080, and 5070?

Will this benefit AMD, which is far from reaching the ban threshold?

Of course we don't have a crystal ball to know for sure.
It's a theory crafting for fun.

Thoughts?

[Omega]

Depends ons on if the cards are considered to be powerful enough to fall under the sanctions. AMDs cards are not rated very highly by the math they are using, the 7900 XTX falls well within its limits.

AMD is already seeing a massive increase in high-end card sales because of it.

[C1REX]

To provide some perspective:

The 4090 has 4800 points, which is the ban threshold. The 7900XTX scores 1955 points, and the 7900XT scores 1652 points.

In theory, most Nvidia GPUs could be banned in about five years, around the time of the RTX 6000 series, while AMD may still not reach the ban threshold.

[De Hollandse Ezel]

explain this to me.. I have missed it..

who is banning those cpu's in china and why?

[Omega]

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

explain this to me.. I have missed it..

who is banning those cpu's in china and why?

USA is banning sales of high-end semiconductor tech by US-based companies (Actually not just US-based companies) to maintain a technical lead on China and out of fear that this tech could be abused (Read: Fear that they are not the only one who are able to abuse such tech).

[De Hollandse Ezel]

Omega a écrit :

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

explain this to me.. I have missed it..

who is banning those cpu's in china and why?

USA is banning sales of high-end semiconductor tech by US-based companies (Actually not just US-based companies) to maintain a technical lead on China and out of fear that this tech could be abused (Read: Fear that they are not the only one who are able to abuse such tech).

as an exporter of chip machines... (netherlands) these boycots start to hurt OUR economy severely.,

if usa want us to comply they should start to compensate us with billions a year.. for the revenue lost on exports to ussr and china..

a free xx90/xx90ti/titan or whatever the top model is for each dutch citycen over 18.. for each gpu generation...

so now a free 4090.. and later a free 5090 and so on..

will be accepted as payment.

[De Hollandse Ezel]

in all seriousness.. I get why usa want these trade bans.. but why is OUR goverment so stupid to heel to what usa wants...

if I want to rent a hotel or restaurant for a private event.. I must pay not just what I consume and use. but pay for the revenue the restaurant or hotel woud have had were it open for guests..

if usa wants our techsector to not export to china and russia..
-> should usa than not compensate our dutch industry for that lost revenue..

and if they are not willing to pay that should our goverment not stick up a middle finger to usa?

dutch make the machines that make the chips.

taiwan makes the chips with the dutch machines (lesser fabs are in netherlands itself.. germany and usa also using the dutch machines)

yet we are banned from exporting these chips AND these machines to china or russia?
you know how much billion a year that costs us?

I can see the strategic interest of not wanting to se china rise to power.
but I see also usa's interest here... and after them screwing us over already with blowing up our gas pipeline and all that..
-> usa wanting something from us should come at a price..

[C1REX]

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

in all seriousness.. I get why usa want these trade bans.. but why is OUR goverment so stupid to heel to what usa wants...

I don't think any country in the world can simply say no to the U.S. From what I understand, there are 40 countries affected by the chip ban (not just China) and 22 countries by the chipmaking machine ban, plus all the rest of the world that used to trade with them.

[De Hollandse Ezel]

C1REX a écrit :

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

in all seriousness.. I get why usa want these trade bans.. but why is OUR goverment so stupid to heel to what usa wants...

I don't think any country in the world can simply say no to the U.S. From what I understand, there are 40 countries affected by the chip ban (not just China) and 22 countries by the chipmaking machine ban, plus all the rest of the world that used to trade with them.

one may not be able to say no.. but one should be able to say.. this costs us x billion, you want us to comply. pay up!

[Nabster]

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

C1REX a écrit :

I don't think any country in the world can simply say no to the U.S. From what I understand, there are 40 countries affected by the chip ban (not just China) and 22 countries by the chipmaking machine ban, plus all the rest of the world that used to trade with them.

one may not be able to say no.. but one should be able to say.. this costs us x billion, you want us to comply. pay up!

If your country say that, us would say your country has illegal weapon of mass destruction and us would send army your way.

[De Hollandse Ezel]

Nabster a écrit :

De Hollandse Ezel a écrit :

one may not be able to say no.. but one should be able to say.. this costs us x billion, you want us to comply. pay up!

If your country say that, us would say your country has illegal weapon of mass destruction and us would send army your way.

it would likelybe cheaper to just pay up;)
atacking a fellow nato member.. and all the fallout of that.. + usa wars aint cheap.. likely an agreed 50 billion a year for us to not sell them to china and russia tradedeal.. or a trafedeal that benegits our industry for 50 billion like exemptions to tarifsm.

if usa wants something from you you negocuate.. to get equal or more vslie back..

[Revelene]

Hard to say but the third party market will probably boom.

[A&A]

Replacing with Risc V chips?

[Tiberius]

Ppl could smuggle illegal wpns to warzone. Nothing can stop ppl from smuggling a widely available gpu to china

[C1REX]

Midnight Aurais a écrit :

what gpu nvidia is a ai company now XD

Then what? Only AMD and Intel will make gaming GPU? ;)

[Omega]

Midnight Aurais a écrit :

what gpu nvidia is a ai company now XD

It is by far their largest source of income.