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Whenever you buy from 3rd party websites, make sure the website is an authorized reseller and you're not buying used (or region restricted) keys.
Which is impossible to do.
I don't know that particular shop and it's probably not listed on isthereanydeal, but that doesn't mean anything. He could try mailing the publisher of the game that he wants to buy to ask them whether said shop is legitimate, but they might just ignore him. In addition, if the shop is operated by some other company, the publisher might not even know THAT particular shop even though they might be dealing with the parent company.
On the positive side, Steam doesn't currently wordfilter it -- but again, that doesn't prove anything.
One can look at the store and take a guess -- for example, if a shop also sells things like WoW-gold or levelling services they are almost certainly not "legitimate" in any way. Selling gifts, or selling games that need to be used through VPN are sure red-flag indicators as well.
But that only works one way -- if they don't do anything obviously bad then you still don't know anything.
That's the whole point of a good con, after all -- the victim isn't supposed to see it until it's too late.
While I agree it's hard to put a 100% estimate, like you said - warning signs are usually visible. Searching about the website can go a long way too.
* GamersGate (this Swedish digital retailer offers some games in Steam key form, and some games in Steam key + DRM-free form, though in the latter case they don't necessarily state the Steam key part)
* Green Light Bundle (I have only bought two of these so my experience is quite limited)
* Groupees (including Bundle-in-a-Box, which is now operated by Groupees)
* Humble Bundles and Humble Store
* Indie Gala and Gala Store
* Indie Royale and Daily Royale
* Playism-Games.com, but only for the games they themselves have localized, and only when they don't say there won't be a Steam key
* developers' own websites will usually state this clearly, and developers can generate keys themselves, as far as I know.
I have not tried any others.