Serious Complaint: Steam Fails to Address Alleged Probability Fraud in Dead or Alive Xtreme Venus Vacation, Restricts Free Speech, and Valve's Failure to Fulfill Legal Responsibilities

[$un]

I am here to formally expose and complain about the serious issues I have encountered on the Steam. Despite multiple complaints to Steam Support regarding the alleged probability fraud in the game Dead or Alive Xtreme Venus Vacation (DOA: XVV) by KOEI TECMO GAMES, I have yet to receive any effective response. Additionally, when I attempted to expose this issue through the Steam community, my discussion was deleted, and I was banned from submitting appeals for one month. Below is the detailed account of the incident:

300 rolls and 0 SSR, extremely low probability, suspected probability fraud. On September 29th, I encountered a situation in DOA: XVV's gacha system where I made 300 rolls and received no SSR. According to the publicly disclosed odds, the probability of drawing an SSR in each roll is 1.1%. The chance of not receiving any SSR in 300 rolls is 3.62%, which is almost equivalent to the probability of getting an SSR in a single roll in other games.

Players with a good understanding of probability theory know how unlikely this is. While some Steam staff or others, as well as the game developer, may have disregarded the objective principles of probability when I initially raised this issue, I believe most players are well-educated enough to understand this. The probability of 300 rolls with 0 SSR is significantly below expectations, involving multiple low-probability events. For example, the probability of the 299th roll also not yielding an SSR is 3.66%, further indicating that numerous low-probability events occurred before reaching the 300th roll. This should not be considered purely bad luck, but possibly indicative of manipulation or misleading behavior within the game.

To further explain this issue, I have played other gacha games such as Cygames’ Uma Musume, Nexon’s Blue Archive, and Shift Up’s NIKKE. While these games have slightly lower SSR probabilities than disclosed, their gacha systems do not exhibit such extreme deviations as seen in DOA: XVV. In these games, although the SSR probabilities show slight discrepancies, the deviations are small and not deceitful.

During the appeal process, I made a mistake by using ChatGPT to assist in calculating probabilities. However, I made an error in the decimal places, which other players pointed out in a widely discussed thread on the Steam community (which was later deleted). This is important because it not only demonstrates my error but also shows that neither the game developer nor Steam care whether players experience probability fraud. They seem more interested in covering up the issue and suppressing the voices of players, rather than addressing these problems.

Even when I tried to give the game developer the benefit of the doubt by suggesting the issue could be a bug rather than intentional fraud, the developer provided no data to support their claim, merely asserting that there was nothing unusual. This attitude shows that the developer is not interested in solving the issue and instead wants to end the conversation with dismissive and unfounded replies, leaving the problem unresolved.

According to Japan's Act Against Unjustifiable Premiums and Misleading Representations (景品表示法), games must not mislead consumers through false advertising or deceptive promotions. DOA: XVV's gacha system clearly violates this law, as it misleads consumers.

Moreover, Steam, as the platform operator, has a responsibility to ensure that games available on its platform comply with the legal requirements of the region. Under the U.S. Consumer Protection Law, Valve has a duty to ensure that games on its platform do not violate consumer rights, and prevent unfair competition and fraud. However, Valve has failed to fulfill this responsibility, allowing these allegedly fraudulent games to remain on the platform, thereby severely harming consumers' legal rights.

I once posted a discussion about the gacha odds in DOA: XVV on the Steam community, aiming to raise awareness among players. However, my discussion was deleted without justification, and I was banned from making appeals for a month. This not only violates players' freedom of speech but clearly aims to suppress feedback on unjust game practices. As a platform operator, Steam should protect the right of players to discuss and voice their grievances, rather than limit it.

Aside from the issues with DOA: XVV, Valve's handling of CS2 has been equally disappointing. Since the game’s launch, many players (myself included) have experienced high latency and rampant cheating, particularly in my region. Although these problems significantly affect gameplay, Valve has not taken effective measures to resolve them while continuing to launch various recharge events. Many players have opted to abandon CS2 and move on to other games. Valve’s failure to resolve these issues is deeply disappointing.

I urge all players to be cautious of such probability fraud and to actively protect their legal rights. If you have encountered similar issues in DOA: XVV or other games, be sure to file a complaint with Steam and retain relevant evidence to safeguard your consumer rights.

I will continue to stand firm on my position until the issue is resolved. I hope Steam will seriously consider the feedback of every player and fulfill its responsibilities.

Thank you for your attention and support!

[d3str0y3r]

Not this again....

Keep bugging support with things that don't handle is just going to get you permanently banned from contacting them. Steam support is NOT Valve, they're an outsourced company that handles account and billing issues ONLY!

Valve does not read anything posted here.

If you have legal issues you get a lawyer.

[Maria]

There was another user here with the same complaint as you, unfortunately I can't find the thread, but tl'dr: while the chances aren’t zero, they’re very low. They even admitted they got the math wrong because they were using Chat-GPT, lmao.

[d3str0y3r]

Originally posted by Maria:

There was a user here who had the same complaint as you, unfortunately I can't find the thread, but tl'dr: the chance is not zero but it is indeed very low. They acknowledge that they did the math wrong because they were using Chat-GPT, lmao.

Same user as before.
https://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/1/4691154153116890560/

[Maria]

Originally posted by d3str0y3r:

Same user as before.
https://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/1/4691154153116890560/

I didn't know this user has made another thread before, but I was referring to another user. I made several posts in their thread. Same complaint, same game, lel.

[Crazy Tiger]

Players who understand probability theory also understand that something is unlikely, but not impossible. You, OP, are not one of them.

This also is not a Valve/Steam issue. Even if there is an issue in this, it would fall on the developer.

[cSg|mc-Hotsauce]

That's how it works, yes.

Please never play lottery scratch off tickets.

[rawWwRrr]

Originally posted by Sun:

Below is the detailed account of the incident:

300 rolls and 0 SSR, extremely low probability, suspected probability fraud. On September 29th, I encountered a situation in DOA: XVV's gacha system where I made 300 rolls and received no SSR. According to the publicly disclosed odds, the probability of drawing an SSR in each roll is 1.1%. The chance of not receiving any SSR in 300 rolls is 3.62%, which is almost equivalent to the probability of getting an SSR in a single roll in other games.

Players with a good understanding of probability theory know how unlikely this is.

It is unlikely, however, never a zero possibility. You were unlucky. Deal with it.

[$un]

Originally posted by d3str0y3r:

Not this again....

Keep bugging support with things that don't handle is just going to get you permanently banned from contacting them. Steam support is NOT Valve, they're an outsourced company that handles account and billing issues ONLY!

Valve does not read anything posted here.

If you have legal issues you get a lawyer.

Thank you for the information. I thought Steam's customer service was not outsourced because I once saw on a game forum that Valve's founder had also acted as customer service to solve player issues.

[$un]

Originally posted by Maria:

There was another user here with the same complaint as you, unfortunately I can't find the thread, but tl'dr: while the chances aren’t zero, they’re very low. They even admitted they got the math wrong because they were using Chat-GPT, lmao.

Actually, that was me. I have a memory of you, and I believe you must have replied in the discussion that got deleted. Unfortunately, in that discussion, some other players also noticed the issue and analyzed whether it was reasonable, but it was later deleted. I'm just surprised that under that game's comments, there were quite a few players questioning the probability issue, yet no one realized that the probability issue is legally protected in many countries.

[$un]

Originally posted by Crazy Tiger:

Players who understand probability theory also understand that something is unlikely, but not impossible. You, OP, are not one of them.

This also is not a Valve/Steam issue. Even if there is an issue in this, it would fall on the developer.

In fact, I prefer not to engage in conversations with individuals who are unaware of the rules, laws, lack logic, knowledge, or cannot understand articles. Thank you for your response.

[$un]

Originally posted by cSg|mc-Hotsauce:

That's how it works, yes.

Please never play lottery scratch off tickets.

:nkCool:

Yes, as a programmer, I am fully aware of the many opportunities for manipulation in these systems. It was just based on the trust players have in game companies that I believed in them. After they broke my trust, I have now completely turned to single-player games

[$un]

Originally posted by rawWwRrr:

Originally posted by Sun:

Below is the detailed account of the incident:

300 rolls and 0 SSR, extremely low probability, suspected probability fraud. On September 29th, I encountered a situation in DOA: XVV's gacha system where I made 300 rolls and received no SSR. According to the publicly disclosed odds, the probability of drawing an SSR in each roll is 1.1%. The chance of not receiving any SSR in 300 rolls is 3.62%, which is almost equivalent to the probability of getting an SSR in a single roll in other games.

Players with a good understanding of probability theory know how unlikely this is.

It is unlikely, however, never a zero possibility. You were unlucky. Deal with it.

When I play card games or board games in real life, I am often called a 'cheater' by my friends because of my good luck. Yet, when these games are manipulated by code, I always end up being the unlucky one. It's truly disheartening. QAQ

[Crazy Tiger]

Originally posted by Sun:

Originally posted by Crazy Tiger:

Players who understand probability theory also understand that something is unlikely, but not impossible. You, OP, are not one of them.

This also is not a Valve/Steam issue. Even if there is an issue in this, it would fall on the developer.

In fact, I prefer not to engage in conversations with individuals who are unaware of the rules, laws, lack logic, knowledge, or cannot understand articles. Thank you for your response.

Sure, instead of following rules, laws, logic, knowledge or reading you much rather make up things because you got unlucky. Obviously much more productive.

[Snivy]

Originally posted by Sun:

Originally posted by rawWwRrr:

It is unlikely, however, never a zero possibility. You were unlucky. Deal with it.

When I play card games or board games in real life, I am often called a 'cheater' by my friends because of my good luck. Yet, when these games are manipulated by code, I always end up being the unlucky one. It's truly disheartening. QAQ

Your logic is as reasonable as proving a bank robber innocent, based on all the time he didn't rob a bank.

[Muppet among Puppets]

Originally posted by Sun:

According to the publicly disclosed odds, the probability of drawing an SSR in each roll is 1.1%. The chance of not receiving any SSR in 300 rolls is 3.62%, which is almost equivalent to the probability of getting an SSR in a single roll in other games.

Probability is not a static thing and its not personally.

The chance of getting a prize is each time 1%.
Each of 100 tries is 1%.
That does NOT mean 100x1 = 100

What you assume, would be a price of an item being 100 cost = 1 item.

BUT one thing must be true: 1% somehow must get the prize in the full picture.
Just it isnt necessarily you.