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The data is probably being buffered somewhere in your network and then being sent on in one big chunk. That would certainly cause the difference.
Except, it's not spikes. It'll just be going at that speed for a while. This current one has been at double the limit for hours, at least every time I've looked, with no significant dips in the graph. And if I set it to a speed that double that would eat up all of the low-ass bandwidth we have... well, there's no bandwidth left, and everything else slows to a crawl. So pardon me if I don't think that's it.
Cursed Valve Time.