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also, explain why it can sit on a steady number like 150-160K/s but estimate incorrectly and think I'm downloading at 300K/s, even if the connection varies 10K that is a variance of less than 10%, not enough to cause a incorrect value like the one given
Steam has an odd way of showing download speeds and download rates. If the file you are downloading is compressed Steam will show a download rate as equivilent to the uncompressed file.
As an example, you're downloading a 100MB file but it's compressed to a 50MB download. You are downloading a 1MB a second. Because the file is actually 100MB uncompressed, double what the compressed version is, Steam will show your double rate as double for that time, meaning it'll state the download rate as 2MB rather than 1MB a second.
If that makes sense?