Any benefit doing expeditions manually?

[sandokanski]

From the perspective of getting more memetic splinters, is there any benefit to do expeditions manually? As far as I am aware Familiar Landscapes, which give 50% more encounters, only work in idle mode. Which, if I'm not missing something, should result in more memetic splinters per locked location key.

In idle mode you do have a chance to fail an encounter, but in order to bring back those 15 encounters to 10 you need win chance of 66.67% or less And mine is over 70%. So I guess there is still slight benefit (on average) of doing them in idle mode.

[BlueGlass]

Unless my math is wrong, you're right that, as long as one has they auto-expedition upgrade purchased and both Ancient Tactics and Familiar Landscapes maxed, the win rate even in Secret Altar is high enough that idle expeditions should give more splinters on average. The win rate lowers as you go through each encounter, and while I don't remember my testing exactly, but I seem to remember that while it does in fact drop below 66.67% in Secret Altar, that happens over halfway through, making the average win rate still above that threshold.

[Tom the Mime Artist]

Digging the old tab on my spreadsheet, with all the upgrades at max level, idle expedition is always better than manual as far as splinters is concerned, from 54% better for shattered reality down to 12% better for secret altar.

Also, shattered reality is the most efficient use of unstable keys, with idle shattered reality being 19% more efficient than the next best option when you have all the upgrades.

[sandokanski]

Originally posted by Tom the Mime Artist:

Digging the old tab on my spreadsheet, with all the upgrades at max level, idle expedition is always better than manual as far as splinters is concerned, from 54% better for shattered reality down to 12% better for secret altar.

Now that is odd, You get only 50% from Familiar Landscapes minus any random fail, so it should be a little bit less than 50%, not 54%. Is there anything else that boosts idle expeditions?

[Tom the Mime Artist]

Originally posted by sandokanski:

Originally posted by Tom the Mime Artist:

Digging the old tab on my spreadsheet, with all the upgrades at max level, idle expedition is always better than manual as far as splinters is concerned, from 54% better for shattered reality down to 12% better for secret altar.

Now that is odd, You get only 50% from Familiar Landscapes minus any random fail, so it should be a little bit less than 50%, not 54%. Is there anything else that boosts idle expeditions?

Higher level monsters give more splinters and with upgrades (and the auto expedition Lvl 2 in the market), this increase outpaces the lost splinters due to the lower success rate for all key-locked expedition levels. So the splinter EV of the extra levels from heritage upgrades is slightly greater than that of the earlier levels, which pushes it above 50%.

[sandokanski]

Originally posted by Tom the Mime Artist:

Higher level monsters give more splinters and with upgrades (and the auto expedition Lvl 2 in the market), this increase outpaces the lost splinters due to the lower success rate for all key-locked expedition levels. So the splinter EV of the extra levels from heritage upgrades is slightly greater than that of the earlier levels, which pushes it above 50%.

So, the last 5 extra encounters give more splinters on average, because the monsters are higher level compared to what you will get in a manual run. Did I get it right?

[exelsisxax]

familiar landscapes actually doesn't add higher level monsters. there's just extra encounters within the same level range, creating a few duplicates.

[sandokanski]

Originally posted by exelsisxax:

familiar landscapes actually doesn't add higher level monsters. there's just extra encounters within the same level range, creating a few duplicates.

Then I don't understand how it provides 54% more splinters with less than 50% more encounters (on average). Do you say Tom is incorrect with that number?

[Delreich]

Max-level Familiar Landscapes give you an extra encounter at each of the odd levels, so the average is lowered ever so slightly. Idle SR would be 42.7% more splinters than manual SR, I think, while for SA idle would be 9.75% more than manual (both assuming max FL, max AT and auto-idle upgrade from market).
Tom's numbers would be correct if monster levels simply went N levels further. Pretty sure I've made that mistake in the past too.

[Tom the Mime Artist]

Originally posted by sandokanski:

Originally posted by exelsisxax:

familiar landscapes actually doesn't add higher level monsters. there's just extra encounters within the same level range, creating a few duplicates.

Then I don't understand how it provides 54% more splinters with less than 50% more encounters (on average). Do you say Tom is incorrect with that number?

Yep, my numbers would be right if the levels just went up which was the assumption I made for the spreadsheet. If the assumption is wrong, my numbers are wrong. Idle expedition is still better for splinters though, just not by as much.

[sandokanski]

Originally posted by Tom the Mime Artist:

Yep, my numbers would be right if the levels just went up which was the assumption I made for the spreadsheet. If the assumption is wrong, my numbers are wrong. Idle expedition is still better for splinters though, just not by as much.

Ah, ok. Now I understand. Finally.