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If one of those titles releases and their not complete trash u can also forget the GOTY thing for this title (except that Diablo IV - of course - won't be featured in Steam's GOTY awards).
Spiderman 2 will get delayed into 2024.
Jedi Fallen Order Survivor Might out sell it.
The thing is, only activists care about activists, normal gamers don't care about "politics", they just want a fun game.
Spiderman 2 will be a bigger success though, it's a bigger franchise and has loyal console gamers willing to spend big on their games.
Will Spiderman 2 have cops in it though, that you help? if it does, then Spiderman 2 will get the same angry reception as Hogwarts from the same activists. If they make the cops the bad guys, the activists will celebrate the game.
Star Wars Jedi: Survivor will be even bigger than Spiderman since it's actually multiplatform.
Stalker 2 could be a sleeper hit, however it will probably not be relased this year.
Darkest Dungeon II and Baldur's Gate III will be very big this year, since there are more PC gamers than console gamers.
However PC games don't seem to count when we're talking about supposed gaming hits?
Diablo 4 ... could go either way.