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You have a thousand vultures waiting for you to post a zen for 25 dil.
The exchange is indeed capped. Years ago there was a happy time when prices ground upwards.
A couple of months ago, the backlog was around 10.6 million Zen and it was taking upwards of 4-5 weeks to clear. Currently, the backlog is around 5.3 million Zen, so I'm thinking approximately 2 - 2 1/2 weeks, assuming my #'s are correct.
The backlog has dropped rather dramatically, so either there are a lot more people selling Zen, or the buyers have found something else to spend their Dil on, or some combination thereof.
BTW, I have no idea why the offers to sell stopped appearing once the cap was hit. Rest assured, you can still buy.
The offers to sell don't appear because anyone who offers to sell gets their offer filled immediately at the cap rate, since they can't post above cap and there's millions of offers waiting at cap.
In the past, the offers that you would see were ones that were at *above* the current selling price. Those can no longer be entered due to the cap.
This is false information. If you post an offer to sell, regardless of if you post at 25 or 500, it gets filled at 500. And people *are* selling Zen. Recent dilithium-to-Zen data I've seen continues to show Zen being sold at a rate of between 300 and 500 thousand per day.
Again, people ARE selling at this rate. It's just not enough to clear the backlog and pull the exchange rate off the cap.
now if you are one that wants to buy the zen, you have to wait in line like everybody else.
theres only so much product (zen) offered from other players, while ~5mil worth of demand is put in the queue.
first come, first served.
I get 500 zen a month, its sold instantly at 500 dil each. The resulting 200,000 some odd thousnads of DIL is spent. And thats that.
You have to be careful not to accidently enter one zen for 25 dil. You can see the same thing on exchange when a drunk gamer enters one master key for 1000 or whatever extreme low figure or two or three keys at market rate for one .. those are instantly bought up.
False? no. Theres 500 zen coming in a few days for me. Its going to sell at 500 each. When you input the sale you make sure the second line is correct for one zen equals 500. Default is 25.
I do not play the game anywhere near as intensely as to worry about stuff like false anything. I literally dont care. Its specifically the act of selling zen or exchange or wahtever is where you need to be careful doing. Dont play the game drunk or high.
Kindly read what I wrote. Even if you do slip and input a Zen sale at 25, it *still gets filled at 500*. The dil-to-zen exchange does not work the same way as the exchange.
It comes down to how long a wait you're willing to do. One of two things will happen over time - the price of ZEN in dil will increase, or the time you have to wait for an order to buy ZEN at an artificially capped price will increase. At the moment its around a month or a bit longer according to various folks who test it so they can write complaint posts.
Whatever the price an uncapped dil exchange settled at, that would be the "true" price of ZEN - the equilibrium price. That means the number of people willing to sell at that price roughly equals the number of people willing to buy at that price, at all times.
Those numbers don't mean anything on their own - they need to be contrasted with the trade volume before the cap was reached. If it's true to what is expected by economists when you apply long-term price ceilings, the trade volume will have decreased over time.
That there exists someone who will do such a trade is meaningless: if you look hard enough there's someone who will trade you their wedding ring for a potato - it just comes down to how hungry they are. Most people, however, won't be that hungry.
It'd be more accurate to say "there ARE people selling at this rate, just nowhere near the number that are trying to buy at this rate". It is a bad deal for the folks who are selling ZEN, which means the state of the exchange will get progressively worse.
The numbers are not meaningless.
While it's true that we don't know what the throughput was before cap (the method used to generate these numbers only works at cap), and therefore can't compare the long term economics, that wasn't the point I was trying to make...
I was giving the numbers as a way to judge what the current time backlog is - which by the way is shorter than the time you quoted. The number of dilithium orders in the backlog has dropped to roughly half of what it was when it peaked in November-ish.
When I said "continues" I was comparing to tests run earlier in the post-cap era, like in October of '21. Every test I've seen has shown numbers close to the range given, with a couple of minor outliers like one test that mathed out to 280 thousand per day and another at 510... but generally it's between 300 and 500.
That may, perhaps, have been a better choice of words. But I think either way gets the point across that I was making, in that the number of sellers is not zero (as stated by the person I was replying to there).
On their own they are, which is what I said (you left that part out of your reply).
There is basically no rational way that the backlog is reversing its trend. More likely you are seeing the lingering effects of the December "Vanity Shields for Dilithium" event that has historically taken a chunk out of the dil backlog. The problem with the things that have worked to take chunks of dil out of circulation is that none are sustainable - there are only so many vanity shields for people to buy, only so many pieces of equipment to upgrade. There is always, however, new things for people to spend ZEN on.
So your theory is that the market is holding steady in its current state? Deeply unlikely. Whenever a market has a binding price ceiling the state of the market inevitably deteriorates over time because being constrained by that ceiling means demand outpaces supply at that price, and until that changes the cumulative demand is going to increase (which, by definition, means the cumulative shortage of supply is also increasing).
I can guarantee you that if you run a regression analysis on the datapoints used to make a chart like the one I linked to, you'll find that the slope is positive since the point in 2021 when the price ceiling became binding[i.redd.it] due to the progressive supply/demand imbalance. They throw stopgap measures at the problem to try to slow down the rate at which things get worse, but that's all they are.
Nobody seriously thinks its zero - it was a generalization. Don't be that useless nerd that goes "well technically..." just to hear himself speak during a conversation where everybody involved knows that the statements being used mean "on average" without needing to explicitly say so. When people say "men are taller than women" they know that there exist some women that are taller than some men... deciding you want to interject to argue that point is just douchebaggery.
just look at neverwinter. the backlog over there is 45mil or so, which is a waittime of around 10+ months.
and neverwinter has more ways to spend their premium currency. heck, the auctionhouse works with it, not with gold (e.credits in sto), so people actually use the currency in trade in addition to the zen exchange.
the easiest solution, and the one cryptic bets on, is that people simply spend real world money on zen instead of using ingame means.
now im not going to do this, since i stopped caring about "endgame", so all i do with my dilithium is putting it in the zen-exchange and wait.
but if you dont want to wait, and enjoy the game, spend money.
(disclaimer: i bought lifetime at the start of the game, and i think it was the romulan big pack that i got with actual money. since then im technically a freeloader, but the 500zen stipend is there for what its worth)