Axis & Allies needs to be more realistic in dice rolls

[Generaloberst Heinz Guderian]

Attacking in far East with two US infantry and a fighter against 1 single japanese infantry and lost.

There was a 97 % risk of this outcome.

Is this a pattern ??? It even happend by defenders rolling 3 times 1 by there dice.

Common Risk and make the game Great Again :-D

[jhepp1]

Originally posted by Generaloberst Heinz Guderian:

Attacking in far East with two US infantry and a fighter against 1 single japanese infantry and lost.

There was a 97 % risk of this outcome.

Is this a pattern ??? It even happend by defenders rolling 3 times 1 by there dice.

Common Risk and make the game Great Again :-D

Every dice roll is unique with no memory of the previous roll. There is an X% chance of rolling 3 ones on 3 six sided die. Roll 3 ones. Next roll it's the exact same chance and its never 0% chance.

[rocky1242]

Most people only consider 2 inf + fighter vs 1 inf as a success if you kill the infantry and still have an infantry left to take the territory without losing the plane. You only have about a 93% chance of that happening. Odds are you're going to lose 2 inf + fighter vs 1 inf a couple times every game. Given the number of battles in a game, it's not uncommon to have a 1% chance result happen more games than not. If you can't handle it, there's always the low luck option.

[Duke of Zork]

They insist that there's no problem, no matter how many examples you show. They feel that if the dice average out correctly over 10,000 rolls then they must be okay. The only solution is to forget Ladder Play, and play Custom Games with Low Luck Dice.

[oddball]

Originally posted by Duke of Zork:

They insist that there's no problem, no matter how many examples you show. They feel that if the dice average out correctly over 10,000 rolls then they must be okay. The only solution is to forget Ladder Play, and play Custom Games with Low Luck Dice.

Yep. Multiple people have logged hundreds of rolls and shown that the dice in small battles are not hitting at the correct percentage. I now have logged hundreds of rolls of my own and
- single defending infantry hit at a little over 40% in the first round
- two attacking fighters get two misses twice as often as two hits in the first round
- single planes attacking against a "1" defense (whether IC, AA gun or defending bomber) get shot down at ~40%.

The first two have been tested over hundreds of rolls (the last one only over a few tens because I have basically stopped doing it - unsurprisingly). And this is reproducible.

That said I think that this must be the result of some kind of bug and that not everyone is affected by it (or at least not in the same way) - because if it's happening to you it's pretty much unmissable.

[rocky1242]

You must admit that it seems strange that if units that hit with a 1 or 2 or less hit more often than they are supposed to, that units that hit with 3 or less would hit less often than it is supposed to. A fighter gets a hit with a 1 or 2 also, so if the dice are rolling 1 or 2 more than expected, than the number 3 must be getting rolled way less than expected.