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However a bad R1 and/or a good G1 make KJF more likely. KGF (while in my view harder to defend against) needs more time to get underway. If R1 is really bad (or Germany has 2/3 subs and 6/7 air preventing UK fleet build) then you just don't have that time and you have to go for Japan instead.
KJF is riskier, and easier for Japan to defend. But you start to apply pressure much quicker.
KJF can also occur later as a result of a bad Japanese Hawaii.
To illustrate what I mean:
Germany offers the best trading options for allies, and the best use of Allies' starting factories.
So anything you might find on the board that is negative for Japan, such as these common new player examples and poor dice:
"1 or 2 ICs J1, less than 4 transports J1, poor unit positioning, low pressure to India, disaster Pearl Harbour clear, low ground unit count on the mainland, etc.."
All of these slow Japan down immensely, or stretch her fleets thin, etc. They are all really great for KJF. But, they are even better for KGF! it takes Japan a while to get going, it isn't going to be pressuring Caucasus on J3 like Germany can. Allies love long games where they can bring their massive economic advantage to bear. Any of these markers mean Japan is going to be even later than its already late timing to Moscow, comparatively.
So if your build isn't going for Japan from the outset, its highly likely you'll find yourself weighing the options and deciding KGF the majority of the time.
Designed KJF, non-reactive and intended from the outset, usually consists of heavy aggression from UK and USSR in the opener, even up to and including suboptimal UK purchasing just to increase pressure. People play this for fun, and it is certainly viable into plat.
A neutral opener just isn't really there yet. My advice would be to either play KJF instead of KGF when Japan is weak for your own entertainment and/or challenge yourself to play KJF no matter what, perhaps even on a new account. My guess is that you will find yourself adjusting away from a neutral opener over time.
I agree with this. R1/G1 have to go very badly to trigger a KJF and it's a longshot. It becomes the only way left to recover a losing game.
There are essentially two problems with KJF. Firstly Japan has a lot of IPCs in its navy/airforce at the start of the game. Although you can apply pressure quickly- if Japan doesn't make a mistake you are going to take too long to defeat him. Secondly you are poorly positioned afterwards. Assuming Germany takes Russia as is very likely - Germany has a huge advantage subsequently unless the US has managed to get 2/3 factories producing on the Asian mainland a couple of turns before Moscow falls.
As an Axis player I am very happy for every IPC that the Allies spend, or naval unit that dies, in the Pacific. The only thing I prefer to see to a KJF is an Allied player who wants to fight on both fronts :-).
I am Axis in a game that looks like they are going to go KJF by the UK1 buy. It is a Plat level game and my opponent is someone who has been a plat level player for most of this games existence. So don't count it out as a viable strategy.
To be super crass about it, would you rather be using the US to trade France/Norway, or the Guadacanal/Iwo?
And I say that as someone who loves to mess around with US all pacific, or even two seas. But it just isn't the scary steamroller that the KGF well executed is where each turn 8-16-eventually 20 units are hitting Europe each turn.
Anyway, I like a "hit Japan in the mouth" strategy up to even low Plat, as it seems like players handle it poorly (not SZ37 exactly).
But once you get to high plat they seem to be able to stall that out and meanwhile RUS is dying on turn 5 and then you are in real rough shape if you aren't already about to kill Japan (which is pretty hard to do that quick).
As US with the money islands and a grand fleet, but also with Japan having a grand fleet still, and German tanks running roughshod over asia and africa is a US that is going to need to keep devoting money to the "finally kill japan project"...while the UK is killed by GER. It is fine if you have total naval supremacy and ♥♥♥ is just buying plans/dudes. But if they keep their navy alive you are cooked typically.
I suspect the optimal play is some tiny investment in Asia such that you slow Japan a turn or two, while devoting literally everything else to Europe. What that looks like in practice I am not 100% sure. But it is very hard for Japan to win with a dead GER even with like 70 income unless they can get their hands on WUS.
Yes - this was my point although you expressed it more specifically. Things have to go really badly in Europe for KJF to make sense for the allies.
Especially for the USA. A "neutral" open for the USA would be fleets on both oceans, wouldn't it? The consensus seems to be that's not good for the USA, that it has to choose an ocean. Two-front wars being easily lost, etc.
So to all of you who want to get good at KJF, don't listen to the nay-sayers'
KJF is fun but risky. My guidance would be to do it in pick-up games - and not ranked games - until you really understand the basic strategies.
I just got matched against a Gold player trying to KJF me. It's ugly (for Allies) when they don't know the fundamentals. https://imgur.com/a/j6Tb5Ad
Round 2? WTH did he do, and how is he gold? Gold players usually at least have some sort of grasp of the fundamentals.
I usually take Moscow by R6 against platinum players who go KJF. Gold is usually by R4. That's been a hundred games ago (at least) but I believe he underestimated my willingness to take 60% odds - just to strafe and see how the dice came up. The dice came up OK enough that if I was willing to lose a few fighters I would probably get Moscow (which I almost always OK with).
In a heavy KJF Germany has a lot more room to recover from early risk like that, so I take whatever the opposing players give me and I run with it.