Not so sure about the 12/9 Russia open

[Dangle]

The standard open for Russia seems to be a huge push into West R and Ukraine, but I get very mixed results with this.

You're almost betting the entire game on this open, and it often goes poorly. Not uncommon for West Russia to flop, and Ukraine can flop two ways (good or bad). If you roll badly, you eat up most of your army, and if you do too well, then you don't get a retreat in and leave three tanks in Ukraine like sitting ducks.

I tried different opens in my last six games and my win rate went way up. I'm Silver ranked, so maybe take that with a grain of salt, but I'm just not sold on the 12/9. It's a crap shoot.

[dmr]

Retreating is usually not the intent of the Ukraine attack. Sometimes it works out well, but generally 3 tanks in Ukraine would be considered a good result.

The usual 9/12 move would be to move the AAA up into Ukraine and build 2 tanks in Moscow and 4 infantry in Caucuses for counterattack so that Germany can’t stack Ukraine or Karelia if WR goes okay.

The main alternative to 12/9 is WR Jam. Everything goes to WR except for 1 fighter to Egypt. It is probably worse on average but less chance for really bad luck.

[Dangle]

Much of the discussion I've seen and heard on the Ukrain attack calls for a retreat before you completely eliminate stack--and I have found this to be a better option as well. If you do not retreat, those three tanks are thrown away.

I usually keep all four of my starting tanks through the entire game, because even if I do 9/12, I try to retreat.

If I get a good West Russia, and a good retreat in Ukraine, Im in a strong position--if any of that goes wrong though, Russia is in a bad spot.

[dmr]

If you’re counting on a retreat (say with a 4 inf, 3 art buy) I think you’re probably setting yourself up for failure because you will not get the result you’re hoping for more than half the time. You also really open up Germany’s options against Caucuses as well as against a weak West Russia result.

It’s also possible that you’re reading advice intended for the standard 1942 2nd Ed setup (as opposed to LHGC3) where there’s no bomber in Ukraine.

[Juggernaut]

Yeah I have never heard a top player advocate a Ukraine retreat unless a ton of other conditions also existed. Pretty universally agreed on that you take. Maybe if you can deny G2 Karelia you wouldn't. As Germany I am usually pretty happy when Allies retreat, especially when its strong. Nothing feels worse as Germany than suiciding tanks and fighters into AA in Ukraine on G1 against a big Russian stack.

[Dangle]

Originally posted by Juggernaut:

Yeah I have never heard a top player advocate a Ukraine retreat unless a ton of other conditions also existed. Pretty universally agreed on that you take. Maybe if you can deny G2 Karelia you wouldn't. As Germany I am usually pretty happy when Allies retreat, especially when its strong. Nothing feels worse as Germany than suiciding tanks and fighters into AA in Ukraine on G1 against a big Russian stack.

No. If Russia doesn't retreat from Ukraine, G1 does not have to throw away planes and tanks against a big Russian stack. The only thing stacked in Ukraine G1 is 3 tanks like sitting ducks. If you send an AA along with those ducks, you're just throwing that away too.

If instead, you retreat, they have to face 4-5 inf, 3 tanks, maybe an art, an AA, and a plane or two. As you have eaten up most of their infantry on turn one, they will have to use mostly expensive units to attack that nasty stack in Caucus, or the nasty stack in West R.

In my experience, Axis does not attack my retreated Caucus stack, and when they do, it usually takes most of what they have on the front line, and I just counter attack it back.

Mostly though, I'm not using 12/9 at all lately.

Also, I've seen plenty of "top" players talk about Ukraine retreat, and someone even mentioned using it in another thread tonight. It's not as uncommon as you think, and I still don't see a good argument for all in Ukraine, because those three tanks are not worth throwing away to get that bomber. I use those tanks the entire game.

[Father of WAR]

i use a 13/8 opening. (i have the art from caucusus attack w russia. i can recover from a bad ukraine battle, but not a bad w russia battle

[Juggernaut]

oh, you don't even have to throw the tanks to get the bomber. I lose bomber first as Germany, or after inf. Most others do too. I would even argue its worth to take Ukraine just to kill the 1 ftr, forget the bomber. The bigger the Russian stack, the better. Id probably trade the entirety of the inf, art and tanks if Germany got no hits just to stack Ukraine. I'd be interested in a link to whatever conversation you have seen on Ukraine retreat lol. I've never seen it done in a tournament game, talked about, or anything really. I have strafed cus its fun to play a KJF after, or cus I have calculated that a 2 tank buy R2 prevents G2 Karelia, but this is incredibly uncommon. J carrier to Egypt prevents it too usually.
There's no reason it has to be thought of as an orthodox dogma, but I haven't yet seen that great of an argument against it. it forces Germany to takes risks G1. accelerates trading tempo. these things are good for allies. You often force Germany to send air into AA or commit a ton of tanks. The meta has even been shifting due to this - many German players now favour 6-9 tanks into inf to deal with Russian aggression.

[ofancow]

Originally posted by Juggernaut:

oh, you don't even have to throw the tanks to get the bomber. I lose bomber first as Germany, or after inf. Most others do too. I would even argue its worth to take Ukraine just to kill the 1 ftr, forget the bomber. The bigger the Russian stack, the better. Id probably trade the entirety of the inf, art and tanks if Germany got no hits just to stack Ukraine. I'd be interested in a link to whatever conversation you have seen on Ukraine retreat lol. I've never seen it done in a tournament game, talked about, or anything really. I have strafed cus its fun to play a KJF after, or cus I have calculated that a 2 tank buy R2 prevents G2 Karelia, but this is incredibly uncommon. J carrier to Egypt prevents it too usually.
There's no reason it has to be thought of as an orthodox dogma, but I haven't yet seen that great of an argument against it. it forces Germany to takes risks G1. accelerates trading tempo. these things are good for allies. You often force Germany to send air into AA or commit a ton of tanks. The meta has even been shifting due to this - many German players now favour 6-9 tanks into inf to deal with Russian aggression.

It's interesting to see the strategies evolving so quickly in a game that is as "established" as this one (i.e. the basic game has been in play long enough to have grandchildren).

[Juggernaut]

Originally posted by ofancow:

Originally posted by Juggernaut:

oh, you don't even have to throw the tanks to get the bomber. I lose bomber first as Germany, or after inf. Most others do too. I would even argue its worth to take Ukraine just to kill the 1 ftr, forget the bomber. The bigger the Russian stack, the better. Id probably trade the entirety of the inf, art and tanks if Germany got no hits just to stack Ukraine. I'd be interested in a link to whatever conversation you have seen on Ukraine retreat lol. I've never seen it done in a tournament game, talked about, or anything really. I have strafed cus its fun to play a KJF after, or cus I have calculated that a 2 tank buy R2 prevents G2 Karelia, but this is incredibly uncommon. J carrier to Egypt prevents it too usually.
There's no reason it has to be thought of as an orthodox dogma, but I haven't yet seen that great of an argument against it. it forces Germany to takes risks G1. accelerates trading tempo. these things are good for allies. You often force Germany to send air into AA or commit a ton of tanks. The meta has even been shifting due to this - many German players now favour 6-9 tanks into inf to deal with Russian aggression.

It's interesting to see the strategies evolving so quickly in a game that is as "established" as this one (i.e. the basic game has been in play long enough to have grandchildren).

Aye, but when longtime players are divorced of their beer league strategies... The game evolves quickly. Fresh eyes do everyone a world of good. I swear that half of the complaints in this game are from longtime players who can't wrap their heads around the fact that 6 months of AAO is probably worth more in pure experience than 30 years of tabletop. The volume of play is so much higher.

[LtlMacMcG]

Originally posted by Dangle:

The standard open for Russia seems to be a huge push into West R and Ukraine, but I get very mixed results with this.

You're almost betting the entire game on this open, and it often goes poorly. Not uncommon for West Russia to flop, and Ukraine can flop two ways (good or bad). If you roll badly, you eat up most of your army, and if you do too well, then you don't get a retreat in and leave three tanks in Ukraine like sitting ducks.

I tried different opens in my last six games and my win rate went way up. I'm Silver ranked, so maybe take that with a grain of salt, but I'm just not sold on the 12/9. It's a crap shoot.

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, the issue is that if you let Germany keep it's bomber and units in Ukraine and West Russia without challenging it while you can....you are...pretty much screwed.



Yes, much of the game for Russia *DOES* hinge on those early rollls.

At the same time, I assure you, if you play against a competent axis player and do not make those attacks...you are pretty much ♥♥♥♥♥♥.

[LtlMacMcG]

Originally posted by Dangle:

Much of the discussion I've seen and heard on the Ukrain attack calls for a retreat before you completely eliminate stack--and I have found this to be a better option as well. If you do not retreat, those three tanks are thrown away.

I usually keep all four of my starting tanks through the entire game, because even if I do 9/12, I try to retreat.

If I get a good West Russia, and a good retreat in Ukraine, Im in a strong position--if any of that goes wrong though, Russia is in a bad spot.

I've found moving the AA in with the 3 tanks +/- to be a good long term strategy.

It makes the German player either have to commit more ground troops to be countered or expose their Air to AA.

It's always fun to to take out a plane or two with lucky AA rolls when they retake Ukraine.

[!d10cr4cy]

Originally posted by LtlMacMcG:

Originally posted by Dangle:

Much of the discussion I've seen and heard on the Ukrain attack calls for a retreat before you completely eliminate stack--and I have found this to be a better option as well. If you do not retreat, those three tanks are thrown away.

I usually keep all four of my starting tanks through the entire game, because even if I do 9/12, I try to retreat.

If I get a good West Russia, and a good retreat in Ukraine, Im in a strong position--if any of that goes wrong though, Russia is in a bad spot.

I've found moving the AA in with the 3 tanks +/- to be a good long term strategy.

It makes the German player either have to commit more ground troops to be countered or expose their Air to AA.

It's always fun to to take out a plane or two with lucky AA rolls when they retake Ukraine.

Plus if you have AA being the first hit, it's an extra buffer for your tanks. Sucks when it misses, however.

[ReoHays]

So far the only people that wont retreat from Ukraine are Plat players. Notice the guy who does other things and the other guy that retreats, they are Silver. I retreat IF it is my 2 Russian planes against a German plane. I mix up my openings between 13/8 and 12/9 and it is always WR/Ukraine. I have lost them miserably against Gold and Plat players and still won the game.
If you take only 90% Battles, you wont win. You have to take some risks in the beginning. Russia goes 12/9 because it sets the pace. Unless you are MRay, he deifies the odds.
I cant play All in on WR on R1. That does not mean it sucks. I have never beat MRay and that is his R1 most of the time. You play what works for you and if you want to retreat with 3 Tanks and an Artillery and leave the G plane go for it. I take it, but my R1 buy is set up to kill the G tanks that may end up in Ukraine for R2.

[ReoHays]

I should mention that 12/9 on R1 is if the allies are going KGF. If they are not, then I would not be so gung ho on 12/9. I play KGF so I go 12/9. It is for an aggressive Allies play. If you plan on KJF then Russians are more valuable and need to be saved. If the OP is Silver and retreats, then maybe he should try doing that with KJF.

[ww2_tankdriver]

With any 2 moves, there is a 50% chance the dice in each move will favor your opponent. So, in summary there is only a 1/4 chance the outcome in both fights will be better than expected for you, a 2/4 chance one battle will favor you and one will favor your opponent, and (what you are likely referring to) a 1/4 in chance that both favor your opponent. The 1/4 times both fights favor the the axis can be an auto loss, depending on how Germany responds, but most of the time Allies will only lose 1 or 2 more units than expected in each fight which can be recovered from.