Dice-probability

[76561199222435501]

Idk if someone already talked about this topic. I have played the game a good time now on steam and i enjoy the game as an Idea. But what I absolutely hate about this game is the dice. For the ones who is gonna say "bad luck happens" you dont understand. Either you hit absolutely 95% of all dices or you hit 5%. This is dice is 100% rigged and it happens every game. I had a long game with a guy and had at one point 30 inf + 20 art + 10 tanks. I got 8 hits. The prob to get that is f*cking bu**s*it. And let me add that this is one of 1000 different cases. Once i hit 7/8 1s with 8 inf alone!! The list could go on with this incredible s**t.

I will probably stop play this game which could have been a huge hit (no pun intended) if the freaking dice was fixed.

So my question is, what is gonna be done about the dice?

[King Richard III]

The answer to your question is "nothing".

I feel your pain in the results of your battle. It's happened to me many times. Getting "diced" sucks especially in a ranked game several rounds in.

I had a battle not too long ago in which I brought 11 attacking 3's (so a mixture of tanks and fighters). I had other units in there as well, but my 11 "3's" went three rounds with only 1 hit.
Imagine that. Imagine rolling 33 dice and only one of them rolls a 3 or less. Meanwhile my opponent was hitting 50% on defending 2's.

But I also knows it goes both ways. I feel sorry for my opponent when they get "diced". I've won many battles that I shouldn't have. It goes both ways.

[Ris Dnalor]

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

Idk if someone already talked about this topic. I have played the game a good time now on steam and i enjoy the game as an Idea. But what I absolutely hate about this game is the dice. For the ones who is gonna say "bad luck happens" you dont understand. Either you hit absolutely 95% of all dices or you hit 5%. This is dice is 100% rigged and it happens every game. I had a long game with a guy and had at one point 30 inf + 20 art + 10 tanks. I got 8 hits. The prob to get that is f*cking bu**s*it. And let me add that this is one of 1000 different cases. Once i hit 7/8 1s with 8 inf alone!! The list could go on with this incredible s**t.

I will probably stop play this game which could have been a huge hit (no pun intended) if the freaking dice was fixed.

So my question is, what is gonna be done about the dice?

The probability to get 8 ( or less) hits is about 2 in 10,000, or 0.02% -- I've seen worse odds than that happen.

Now if you're having odds like that multiple times in every game, then you should definitely take the time to scroll down the dice-log, taking screenshots, and send them to the devs, along with the name of your game so they can reference it.

but if it's only happening occasionally or those numbers you gave were not exact, then there is no problem to address.

Here's a link to the odds for that particular fight, you just need to scroll down and find the defender stats, in this case, on 10,000 simulated rolls for teh first round of the attackers you mentioned, 1 time was 7 hits, and 1 time was 8.

Understanding the odds is great, but understanding that when something can happen 2 times out of 10,000, that doesn't mean it happens only 2 times out of every 10,000 games.

The way to think of it that is better is to think that it will only happen 20,000 times out of 10,000,000 games. If you happen to get those kind of rolls 2 or 3 times in a row, early on, out of 10,000,000 games, it's really not even a blip on the radar -- perfectly normal.

But our instinct is to compare those odds in just the games we play, while the dice server is probably handling 1000's or maybe even 10's of thousands of battles every day...

It's also our instinct to not notice when we're winning a battle, and on the last round, when we have 8 units left, and our opponent only has 1 unit, and all 8 of our units hit, but only 1 counts. Well, that was your lucky roll to offset the crappy one earlier - the fact that it didn't help you doesn't mean it wasn't your luck balancing out.

The odds of 8 infantry all hitting is far less than 0.01%, but I've seen it happen -- in this online game & with real dice playing the board game.


http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=30&aArt=20&aArm=10&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=60&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=1&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

[76561199222435501]

Originally posted by King Richard III:

The answer to your question is "nothing".

I feel your pain in the results of your battle. It's happened to me many times. Getting "diced" sucks especially in a ranked game several rounds in.

I had a battle not too long ago in which I brought 11 attacking 3's (so a mixture of tanks and fighters). I had other units in there as well, but my 11 "3's" went three rounds with only 1 hit.
Imagine that. Imagine rolling 33 dice and only one of them rolls a 3 or less. Meanwhile my opponent was hitting 50% on defending 2's.

But I also knows it goes both ways. I feel sorry for my opponent when they get "diced". I've won many battles that I shouldn't have. It goes both ways.

Yes and this removes the skills in the game since all is a complete dicebug randomness. So the dice is not rolled in a even distribution in a single game. It dosent matter that i goes both ways. It makes a single battle gamedecisive and that runies the whole game.

Originally posted by Ris Dnalor:

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

Idk if someone already talked about this topic. I have played the game a good time now on steam and i enjoy the game as an Idea. But what I absolutely hate about this game is the dice. For the ones who is gonna say "bad luck happens" you dont understand. Either you hit absolutely 95% of all dices or you hit 5%. This is dice is 100% rigged and it happens every game. I had a long game with a guy and had at one point 30 inf + 20 art + 10 tanks. I got 8 hits. The prob to get that is f*cking bu**s*it. And let me add that this is one of 1000 different cases. Once i hit 7/8 1s with 8 inf alone!! The list could go on with this incredible s**t.

I will probably stop play this game which could have been a huge hit (no pun intended) if the freaking dice was fixed.

So my question is, what is gonna be done about the dice?

The probability to get 8 ( or less) hits is about 2 in 10,000, or 0.02% -- I've seen worse odds than that happen.

Now if you're having odds like that multiple times in every game, then you should definitely take the time to scroll down the dice-log, taking screenshots, and send them to the devs, along with the name of your game so they can reference it.

but if it's only happening occasionally or those numbers you gave were not exact, then there is no problem to address.

Here's a link to the odds for that particular fight, you just need to scroll down and find the defender stats, in this case, on 10,000 simulated rolls for teh first round of the attackers you mentioned, 1 time was 7 hits, and 1 time was 8.

Understanding the odds is great, but understanding that when something can happen 2 times out of 10,000, that doesn't mean it happens only 2 times out of every 10,000 games.

The way to think of it that is better is to think that it will only happen 20,000 times out of 10,000,000 games. If you happen to get those kind of rolls 2 or 3 times in a row, early on, out of 10,000,000 games, it's really not even a blip on the radar -- perfectly normal.

But our instinct is to compare those odds in just the games we play, while the dice server is probably handling 1000's or maybe even 10's of thousands of battles every day...

It's also our instinct to not notice when we're winning a battle, and on the last round, when we have 8 units left, and our opponent only has 1 unit, and all 8 of our units hit, but only 1 counts. Well, that was your lucky roll to offset the crappy one earlier - the fact that it didn't help you doesn't mean it wasn't your luck balancing out.

The odds of 8 infantry all hitting is far less than 0.01%, but I've seen it happen -- in this online game & with real dice playing the board game.


{LINK REMOVED}http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=30&aArt=20&aArm=10&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=60&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=1&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

That is not even a precentage of what i have experienced. I just took the numbers from the recent matchup. To say 1 in 10 000 happens is ofc obvious. But having dices like 1 in 10 million in multiple game is b**ls*it. Im so pissed at that. To say "it happens" is not mathimatical correct so i dont buy that explanation. If it was like 1 in 100 000 one or twice, that would be ok. But having missing 1 in millions in 5 battles in one single game is not mathematical correct. And same goes with having great dices. And i have noticed the "good" battles to which are BS too.

[Ris Dnalor]

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

Originally posted by King Richard III:

The answer to your question is "nothing".

I feel your pain in the results of your battle. It's happened to me many times. Getting "diced" sucks especially in a ranked game several rounds in.

I had a battle not too long ago in which I brought 11 attacking 3's (so a mixture of tanks and fighters). I had other units in there as well, but my 11 "3's" went three rounds with only 1 hit.
Imagine that. Imagine rolling 33 dice and only one of them rolls a 3 or less. Meanwhile my opponent was hitting 50% on defending 2's.

But I also knows it goes both ways. I feel sorry for my opponent when they get "diced". I've won many battles that I shouldn't have. It goes both ways.

Yes and this removes the skills in the game since all is a complete dicebug randomness. So the dice is not rolled in a even distribution in a single game. It dosent matter that i goes both ways. It makes a single battle gamedecisive and that runies the whole game.

This isn't a problem if you don't make moves that put so much at risk that if you lose the battle, you lose the game. Find another way. They exist.

[76561199222435501]

Originally posted by Ris Dnalor:

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

Yes and this removes the skills in the game since all is a complete dicebug randomness. So the dice is not rolled in a even distribution in a single game. It dosent matter that i goes both ways. It makes a single battle gamedecisive and that runies the whole game.

This isn't a problem if you don't make moves that put so much at risk that if you lose the battle, you lose the game. Find another way. They exist.

What do you mean "put at risk" do you believe i go in 50/50 and come here to complain about it? There is legit 1 in 10 million i lose and i lose it. And this is not one occation, its multiple times in everygame. From now on i will screenshot and post to both the disscussion thread and to the admin/mods. Such a ridiculous post from you. Appearently im not alone, i searched for this topic and have seen that ppl struggle with this all the time. Yet noone in the admin gives a ♥♥♥♥. When i say 1 in millions let me give an example where i lost a battle about 5 days ago. My opponent had to take a VC before end of round to not lose. He went in too karelia with 5 inf from WR (so 5 1s) against my 4 inf, 2 art, 1 tank and 3 fighters and a AAA gun (the aaa gun set to the first casulty). Well guess what, he takes it with 2 inf alive!!! Yeah right "happens once in a while". The issue is i rather burn this game down than playing it. But i still love the concept of the game, otherwise i would never played it. But i am so much into stradegy and thinking games like axis and similar games.

[Ris Dnalor]

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

Originally posted by Ris Dnalor:

This isn't a problem if you don't make moves that put so much at risk that if you lose the battle, you lose the game. Find another way. They exist.

What do you mean "put at risk" do you believe i go in 50/50 and come here to complain about it? There is legit 1 in 10 million i lose and i lose it. And this is not one occation, its multiple times in everygame. From now on i will screenshot and post to both the disscussion thread and to the admin/mods. Such a ridiculous post from you. Appearently im not alone, i searched for this topic and have seen that ppl struggle with this all the time. Yet noone in the admin gives a ♥♥♥♥. When i say 1 in millions let me give an example where i lost a battle about 5 days ago. My opponent had to take a VC before end of round to not lose. He went in too karelia with 5 inf from WR (so 5 1s) against my 4 inf, 2 art, 1 tank and 3 fighters and a AAA gun (the aaa gun set to the first casulty). Well guess what, he takes it with 2 inf alive!!! Yeah right "happens once in a while". The issue is i rather burn this game down than playing it. But i still love the concept of the game, otherwise i would never played it. But i am so much into stradegy and thinking games like axis and similar games.

It doesn't seem like you love the concept of this game though.

You love the concept of a game you've created in your mind that is similar to A&A, but with less luck involved with dice.

I've seen more "unlikely" battles happen - even on the board game with physical dice. Anomalies happen.

Does it sting when it does happen? Sure. That's part of A&A though. It's a bigger part than some people like, and that's o.k. that people feel that way, but it's not a problem with the random number generator for the dice.

If those kinds of battles are happening to you all the time, then what you suggested you would do, by posting evidence of it, is exactly what you should do.

There have been others that said they would do the same, but I haven't seen anything yet.

[Scrogdog]

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

The issue is i rather burn this game down than playing it. But i still love the concept of the game, otherwise i would never played it. But i am so much into stradegy and thinking games like axis and similar games.

Well, I think the issue is that you didn't have realistic expectations for this game. Designers have faced complexity versus realism problems since the dawn of wargame time.

This game is a LIGHT strategy game as it is more a dice game than anything else. A dice game with wargame trappings, if you will. Old wargamers such as myself often refer to such a game as being 'beer and pretzel'. Meaning not terribly realistic, but it doesn't burn your brain with rules on the other hand.

Board wargames typically have a complexity rating and maybe we'd do well to add that sort of the to the video market as well. But make no mistake, if you want something more along the lines of realistic, as it were, strategy games, they are out there on both sides of the coin both board and video.

The price you will pay for that is more rules. More rules make longer learning, but more interesting gameplay in many respects.

Axis and Allies is a beer and pretzel dice game that achieves its design goals rather admirably in my view. If it is not for you, move on friend. The game you want to play is out there I promise you.

[76561199222435501]

Originally posted by Ris Dnalor:

Originally posted by Scrub3n:

What do you mean "put at risk" do you believe i go in 50/50 and come here to complain about it? There is legit 1 in 10 million i lose and i lose it. And this is not one occation, its multiple times in everygame. From now on i will screenshot and post to both the disscussion thread and to the admin/mods. Such a ridiculous post from you. Appearently im not alone, i searched for this topic and have seen that ppl struggle with this all the time. Yet noone in the admin gives a ♥♥♥♥. When i say 1 in millions let me give an example where i lost a battle about 5 days ago. My opponent had to take a VC before end of round to not lose. He went in too karelia with 5 inf from WR (so 5 1s) against my 4 inf, 2 art, 1 tank and 3 fighters and a AAA gun (the aaa gun set to the first casulty). Well guess what, he takes it with 2 inf alive!!! Yeah right "happens once in a while". The issue is i rather burn this game down than playing it. But i still love the concept of the game, otherwise i would never played it. But i am so much into stradegy and thinking games like axis and similar games.

It doesn't seem like you love the concept of this game though.

You love the concept of a game you've created in your mind that is similar to A&A, but with less luck involved with dice.

I've seen more "unlikely" battles happen - even on the board game with physical dice. Anomalies happen.

Does it sting when it does happen? Sure. That's part of A&A though. It's a bigger part than some people like, and that's o.k. that people feel that way, but it's not a problem with the random number generator for the dice.

If those kinds of battles are happening to you all the time, then what you suggested you would do, by posting evidence of it, is exactly what you should do.

There have been others that said they would do the same, but I haven't seen anything yet.

You seem to not understand eventhough you keep posting. I am not complaining for chances like 80/20 %. Yes they happen. But having 1/100 many battles in a row or ONE 1/100 000 is not likely to have and it happens all the time. I do understand the dice and the luck aspect. But a pattern can be seen. I am not attacking anyone or so, im just telling my point of view of this dice which impossibly could be a fully random dice. To say "i have seen unlikely dices" and then refere to 1/1000 is not vaild im talking much bigger scale. Do you really believe i would sit here and post just for troll?

Yes next time i will provide a screenshot. What kind of ratios would be intresting? <1/200 rounds or fully battles with even less likelyhood?

[aramis60]

Hallo Scrub3n,
I would like to see other patterns. I only see my dice and therefore the data is very thin! With me is very often the following pattern: standard attack 2inf, 6 ftr vs 2inf. 1st combat round 0-1 hits, 2nd combat round 3-5 hits. The enemy inf hits 50% of the time. My loss ratio in these fights is 1:2 not 1:3.
I have evaluated several 30 turn games and several such standard attacks are made per turn. The loss ratio inf is 1:2.
But maybe I am particularly unlucky and the data is thin.
When I calculate engagements, I set the enemy inf as tanks and I do fine with that!

[76561199222435501]

Originally posted by aramis60:

Hallo Scrub3n,
I would like to see other patterns. I only see my dice and therefore the data is very thin! With me is very often the following pattern: standard attack 2inf, 6 ftr vs 2inf. 1st combat round 0-1 hits, 2nd combat round 3-5 hits. The enemy inf hits 50% of the time. My loss ratio in these fights is 1:2 not 1:3.
I have evaluated several 30 turn games and several such standard attacks are made per turn. The loss ratio inf is 1:2.
But maybe I am particularly unlucky and the data is thin.
When I calculate engagements, I set the enemy inf as tanks and I do fine with that!

Happy too see more data too from more ppl! I also done some calculations but mostly i dont feel to make a big deal of it, i just say some words in battle and try move on. But i couldent when the odds was so low to lose and i still lose. Anyway i also calculate as the enemy would hit all his dices all rounds and i hit average (it works sometimes pretty well). The problem is when you dont hit any or everyone of them and the opponent is doing either way.

Do you or anyone else know how the dice is programmed? Because all randomness in games are based at something, so in A&A what is it based on?

Im maybe gonna do a single game where i controll every nation to try out some big numbers to get some statistically evidence so we get some real numbers here. So ppl dont say "this happens sometimes".