Subs - G1 Move?

[prof_schwitts]

I have been changing up G1 sub moves and curious on what the most common approach is and best odds. 2 subs to US ATL? 2 Subs to UK destroyer/transport? Split each? Full subs on UK North Sea fleet? It seems like the odds here can really determine initial position of the game. IE whether UK needs to divert resources to UK theater or able to concentrate on Africa/India. If US ATL is dented, etc. Curious on opinions.

[aardvarkpepper]

UK should build in Atlantic, one way or another, sooner rather than later, but eventually in any case. Yes, you can get around it if the Axis player is bad, if you have really great dice, but normally I'd say not to try.

G1 subs, assuming Russian sub joined UK battleship / destroyer (assuming LHTR setup) I'd send one German sub to UK destroyer / transport at East Canada. Rest goes to UK battleship / destroyer / Russian sub battle.

[aardvarkpepper]

Few comments about odds and cost efficiencies or whatever -

1) The "odds calculators" that I know of typically use a PRNG chained to mass simulations, collating results. But that really doesn't give the "odds".

Specifically, imagine if UK battleship / destroyer / Russian sub are attacked by typical G1 forces. If the Russian sub fights, it has a 1/6 chance of inflicting a casualty before attacker rolls are made. This changes the odds significantly. An odds calculator "understands" this is possible, but it weights the results to only count that possibility as 1/6. But if you're IN that position, and the Russian sub rolls a 1, which it will do a fair amount of the time, 5/6 of the results of the "odds calculator" are discarded. Understand?

2) You also have to consider the outcomes. That means not just the unit values that survive the battle, but the positions that result from different outcomes. It also means correctly evaluating dice outcomes not in the final unit count (as most players would use dice calculators, I imagine), but *also* in the intermediate steps, and *understanding* why dice calculators often aren't good models for recommending behavior.

I already wrote how the odds calculator, if evaluating to the end "winner or loser" weights the Russian sub hitting at only 1/6, and how that skews the outcomes in the overall report. But that's just one thing to watch out for. The battle calculator also fights "to the death" so presses on in situations that human players would retreat from.

For example, suppose a player had a damaged battleship attacking a fighter. The attacker might well want to retreat (risking a 20 IPC battleship for a fighter might not be considered a good idea). But the odds calculator doesn't retreat. So it carries out the initial battles to get to that point, then adds X * 25% to the "win", X * 25% to the "loss", and X * 50% to the "no survivors" (where X is the probability of getting to that point). But the overall output doesn't show the "X" or the calculations at that point, they're all folded into the overall report. So again, the odds calculator can be misleading.

For the UK battleship / etc. battle - if the UK battleship survives, that's 20 IPC battleship plus 7 IPC transport. But also it means UK has a credible invasion threat against a lot more territories than before, and it may even be able to build a UK fleet that Germany won't really be able to hurt. This means Germany's position in Europe can collapse real quick.

. . . that is, losing the UK battleship fight isn't just bad for Germany in terms of raw unit value. It's also bad for Germany's developing position and timing, *real* bad.

Plus, consider if Germany even comes *close* to losing, that means precious German air dead. German air is useful for trading but also for threatening any Allied fleet in Atlantic, plus can reposition quickly to be a viable threat while *also* defending key territories. They're quite expensive, you don't want to buy more if you can help it.

So again you *really* don't want to fail the UK battleship fight. You don't even really want to come too close.

3) For those reasons, you can see why a Germany player might want to use both Atlantic subs to attack the UK battleship. But there's reason not to too. Again it comes down to risk assessment, and what happens with the developing positions.

Why do I write 1 sub to East Canada, other to battleship? The battleship, because you want to pad your odds a little there. East Canada, though -

A) Think about US fleet. What's it going to do? Hit NW Africa? If Germany blows up that fleet, it's a lot of US units lost for little cost to Germany. Yes, US can pressure Germany economically early, but it's quite expensive, and US pressing in North Africa also shuts that area down for UK income. Which is ick.

B) Think about UK fleet. What's it going to do? Can hit - what is it, Finland, Norway, France, NW Europe. Which doesn't seem like a big deal because for most it can only go in with 1 tank and air, isn't it? But if Germany landed fighters on Finland, then that's valuable German air vulnerable. And if UK takes *any* territory probably Germany has to trade it back, which means diverting units from being sent at Russia. And Germany can never recover from that timing. Not to be overdramatic, you could say a couple infantry aren't that important. But they ARE important, even if you can't say they'll necessarily be absolutely crucial, you just don't know. And you *won't* be able to recover the timing on those. And if UK takes France, then it loses its transport but at 6 IPCs France almost makes up for it by itself. So yeah it gets awkward, there's more to it but I'll leave off with that here.

And besides that, the UK destroyer at East Canada can hunt any German submarine survivors of the UK battleship fight. So you really have to think about it. Pretty much if you *don't* send something to try for the UK destroyer, then UK can 100% clear the area of Germany's starting subs. You have a 25% of UK destroyer dying outright (and UK transport dying too), 50% of mutual wipe (UK transport lives), 25% of loss. 75% to preserve any surviving subs of the UK battleship fight, and if you're lucky maybe you can abandon France and NW Europe completely. Not at all bad.

And what of the US fleet again? It takes two US transports to transport one transport-load per turn between East Canada and Finland / Norway. One UK transport is *better* than two US transports, as that UK transport isn't bound to that specific transport route - it can hit Karelia, Eastern Europe, Archangel (then I think has to drop to Norway next turn) or whatever. Much more flexible.

Anyways again - if you're thinking about "the odds" you can't just stop at thinking about the outcome of the single battle; you have to think about the odds at *each step* of the battle, whether you'll press on or what you'll do in case of different dice results, then there's also the question of the positions that *result* from different dice outcomes. So for the OP writing about hitting UK at East Canada and US fleet and the UK battleship / etc - remember it's not just about the one battle or the other, it's about looking for the highest probability for an "acceptable" range of outcomes.

So if you're splitting up G1 subs all over - then yeah okay, maybe you get super lucky blah blah, sure. But also maybe you bork the UK battleship battle, and that's real ugly. Good chance something else is borked too so Allies have a number of possibilities. So think about what you really need, what you don't need, instead of trying to be too greedy just settle for good odds on the "important" battles.

[prof_schwitts]

All makes sense, thanks. Encyclopedic as always! Just a follow up note, on rules with subs. when attacking a sub defender without a destroyer, they get a first strike opportunity correct like the typical G1 battle in N ATL against russian sub? When attacking with a destroyer in the group, subs just have a 1 defense. On flip side when attacking with a sub without destroyer, you have first strike. With destroyer just 2 offense. Sorry I could look deeper into rules, but wanted to verify this.

[aardvarkpepper]

Way I read that reply, yes, that is correct.

But note - if all attacking or defending destroyers are removed as casualties, all non-submerged non-retreated submarines on the other side will get their surprise attacks starting next round.

e.g. say first round of combat Germany uses 2 subs, cruiser, 2 fighters to attack UK battleship, destroyer, and Russian sub. Suppose Germany gets three hits and Allies get one hit, say Germany's hit are allocated to damaging UK battleship and destroying the UK destroyer and Russian sub, and say the Allies hit is allocated to the German cruiser.

Second round of combat, it's a damaged UK battleship against 2 German subs and 2 fighters. The German subs get their surprise attack this round as the UK destroyer isn't there this round. So if the German subs get a hit, the UK battleship is instantly removed and never fires back.

[FlaMiN_EliTe]

Publicado originalmente por prof_schwitts:

I have been changing up G1 sub moves and curious on what the most common approach is and best odds. 2 subs to US ATL? 2 Subs to UK destroyer/transport? Split each? Full subs on UK North Sea fleet? It seems like the odds here can really determine initial position of the game. IE whether UK needs to divert resources to UK theater or able to concentrate on Africa/India. If US ATL is dented, etc. Curious on opinions.

I always take two subs to destroy the USA Atlantic fleet to best ensure that I keep the USA without much it can do for as long as possible, with everything else possible shoved against the UK SZ4 fleet. I'm fine with the UK having to figure out how best to split it's resources in two theaters. I want the UK with way too much to do, and lots of tough decisions, with the USA having nothing much it can do, in a sense.

It's worked well enough to have a winning percentage in the Platinum division for me anyhow.

[prof_schwitts]

Interesting insight on the destroyer impact during battle with subs both in defense and on the attack. Worthwhile to keep subs in play as destroyers potentially fall off. Got it now!