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What I DO think is part of it is new identities. Cascadia's in a position to offer that, and after Klara Rask making the identities of Hitman Team public knowledge, they NEED something like that. They'd never be able to enter the Federation again, but after some of the things the Federation tried to do to Cascadia, I think that Sicario'd be just fine with that.
Yeah I agree on that one. Having ranks in cascadia argument didn't convice me. The deal, in my opinion, is most probably a object of great worth and purpose in my opinion, so much so they can bring back merc cabal with it's power
if cascadia was really fighting for independence, why would they put themselves in danger of being controlled again? the mercs may not own cascadia, but we dont know of anything else in the game that could point to being part of the deal, other than something to do with the country. as i said before, they may not own cascadia, but they are probably using it as their place of operations. a safe space for mercs, from the rest of the world.
theres just things we dont know yet. like, why at the end of the game does cascadia want hitman team to be reported to the authorities if they're the reason cascadia came out on top (kinda)? what happens to the federation now that the whole world is up their ass? we gotta use some inferences on what the game tells us via missions and the lore briefings. and as of right now, being in the protection of what is pretty much the country with the largest cordium deposit in the world, with the rest of the world backing that one country up, is my best bet. especially considering it seemed to be directly involved with kaiser. and if the merc cabal wanted to make a merc country, and thats basically what happens to cascadia after the events of the game, what does that tell us about kaiser? granted thats just one of my own theories, that kaiser was a member of the merc cabal, but i digress.
also, cascadia did not put the feds on the ropes by themselves. the only reason they won, was because of hitman team. hell, at the start of the game, its made extremely clear that the cascadian military is so outmatched, that they almost have to resort to guerrilla tactics to stay in the fight, if it wasnt for hitman. and even if it was synthetic cordium, who cares if they have it. all the rest of the world has to do is band together and take cascadia down, because theyd be no better than the federation.
do you even remember C1's quote at the end of the game after you deal the final blow? "when you hear the thunder. when the storm comes for you. remember me." hes trying to prevent monarch from making the same mistake he did. believing he was on top of the world, and on the right side of history. your argument is hinging on monarch not taking his word, and continuing on anyway. the exact same thing that happened in PW, would happen again in your scenario. someone declares war on cascadia, and eventually someone takes them down.
All in all, this is incredibly unlikely given what the game tells us, considering that cordium has been around for hundreds of years now. and if it is correct, thats incredibly bad writing, considering they want people to guess what it is, or else they wouldnt disclose that some were right while keeping them anonymous, which naturally means that people would use the game to figure it out.
With that, I've made my argument. Whether you believe it or not, it doesn't matter to me.
all in all, everything youve said so far is incredibly unlikely. not impossible, just not something the game would lead most to believe. believe what you wanna believe, more power to you, but i just dont agree. good day.