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In other words, the more time you spend in your base, the more likely you are to get a raid (but it's still all RNG).
As the others have said; RNG is a pain!
Something else you can check..
The valheim console actually shows when it rolls to see if a random event will happen. Heres what the output looks like.
04/28/2023 09:18:17: Possible events:0
04/28/2023 10:50:24: Possible events:0
04/28/2023 11:36:29: Possible events:1
04/28/2023 11:36:29: Random event set:army_theelder
04/28/2023 12:22:31: Possible events:0
So, every 45 minutes the game "looks" to see if any player is in a region which is eligible for an event. The game looks at a combination of factors, including the presence of certain items like the workbench and beds. After that, the game looks at the player and what monsters they have killed to determine what event they can trigger.
For example, a newbie can play on a server with all bosses turned in. The newbie will not trigger any hard events because they are not eligible to trigger them. However, if a veteran player is also around; then the veteran player can trigger the hard events, even if the newbie is there.
I've noticed this while playing on my dedicated server; my novice characters only trigger the forest is moving event; while my other characters can trigger much more intense events. So, it is not only the state of the server; but also the state of each character.
Check this as a test.
Start a new world with a new character.
Build a small "base" that includes at least three base structures (such as three campfires, or a campfire, bed, and workbench, etc.).
Console Command: listkeys
[Should say "Keys 0"]
Console command: setkey defeated_eikthyr
Console command: randomevent
[Should start "The forest is moving"]
Console command: stopevent
Your character has no key for defeating Eikthyr, but the world does.
[EDIT] You can start a new character after this to test more, still will get the same results.
Here are the conditions on the public server. Every boss has been spawned and killed except The Queen. Every head is banished and the power is available, except the Queen.
Yet, the server has an almost 100% rate of the elder army event, across over 20 successful occurrences of events. I could just be rolling a 6 20 times in a row here but I don't think that is what is happening.
Here are some examples of the server's logs, this is just a sample of a 12 hour segment but its the same almost everyday... almost always the elder events.
04/30/2023 07:04:45: Random event set:army_theelder
04/30/2023 13:59:44: Random event set:army_theelder
04/30/2023 14:46:09: Random event set:army_theelder
This is what the server does for every event. What players are on the server? Almost entirely new xbox players.... Thats why I theorize that the player actually stores a variable as well.
Whats even crazier is that when I play on my main; I trigger the wolf and goblin events...
Thats why, I swear, something else is going on!
You cannot get earlier boss events after killing later bosses. I would be interested in knowing what your server says when you do "listkeys" as a console command, but you cannot (in a normal game) have "army_theelder" after killing the Elder.
(Having the trophies doesn't matter; you could spawn in the trophies or bring them from another game and it would not affect the raids you get.)
But, as the wiki says[valheim.fandom.com], "Global keys determine which events and spawns are active."
If I type listkeys there are 5
KilledTroll
killed_surtling
defeated_queen
defeated_eikthyr
defeated_hive
Which is, honestly all sorts of messed up!
Every boss was spawned and killed except the queen and hive; so it looks like at some point a player killed those bosses and I didn't notice and I saved it to the server
But The Elder Key is missing for some reason, and also Moder
I think the hive boss might be messing with the logic...
All sorts of weird...
The Hive appears to be messing up the logic, I have a feeling that is why the server always triggers the Eikthyr army event even though it shouldn't.
I don't know how to explain how my main got the harder events but maybe that happened before the server's keys were reset... it did happen a while ago.
"army_theelder" is enabled by the killing of Eikthyr, and disabled by the killing of The Elder. Your server HAS killed Eikthyr, and has NOT (by the keys anyways) killed The Elder. It's logical that you would get "The Forest is Moving" events.
As for your character getting the harder events, I can't explain why you were getting Goblins ("army_goblin") since that requires Moder having been defeated (not set for your server) and Yagluth NOT having been beaten (also not set for your server). Also, Wolves require Bonemass having been beaten, so not sure what's going on there, either. I'm guessing, as you said, this must have been before you ran the resetkeys command.