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https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3169790573
In this example, around 80% of the 999 Curios are from Gallanza (don't mind the low amount of gallanza mats in the wishlist, traded most of them into vouchers)
And the result of this so called "C or B" tier Curio is as follows
3 Suplementary Damage V and this:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3169790592
I understand the Less is more+ has the same droprate as a Sup+ sigil. But if we were to assume I were to start a fresh save, and this isn't my 5th 999 Curio opening, as you can see from the SS I got this around the 600-700 Curio. So, am I to assume 800 ish Curio box (minus 200 assuming from normal playing) equates to a 0.2% drop rate for a Sup+? Probably not.)
Why? That is because for the previous 2 999 openings, I actually did one on Id. And assuming Id and Gallanza drop the same tier, my 999 Id run opening was so bad I got 2 Sup (no +) from the whole batch. By that logic, shouldn't I get atleast 1 + from this batch? Like either a Less is More+, Sup+, or Glass canon + sigils?.
I'm in the camp that it works on a fixed with slightly adjustable RNG Seed. I don't believe there's a "D" tier of Sigils. And even if there was? The amount of afk/manual farming needed to still brute force getting a Sup+ Sigil is still so astronomically low it's not even possible to get one unless you have a god seed.
In my 500 ish hours of play, I've opened 4-5k Curios so far. And I've gotten a Less is more+ and Head Start+.So, in the no tier system, 1 + sigil has a 1/2500 rate. But thing is, my sample size is still too low.
The only TRUE way for this testing to work is
1. Have a sample size of atleast 100k.
2. Make sure all sample is earned through actual battles, not CE modification.
Since we're not sure how they code the seed, duplicating Curio earned is a bad way to gather sample representing the "Curio A-D tier" hypothesis.
PS: I find it weird they dub the D tier as the good drop. Most people would dub A as good but I guess the OP find D is a higher tier than A.
Edit: just realized the OG OP said managamr and up drops "D" tier Curio. I can say that is bull since I spent 3k of my Curio farm on quests harder than Managamr and only got 3 + Sigils from Curio.
You are too kind
https://imgur.com/a/UQfv2En
I also added some translations
Gallanza would be in D drop right? Of course it's not 100% D drop but in your 80% (around 800 curios) it would be around 160 D curios if we can be optimistic about 1:5. So, 0.2% for Supp V+ on a real scenario is way too high if i'm not missing something.
About your Id batch, i THINK, it's not necessarily. We believing in a empty metric that is 1:5, and also believe that you'll hit 1:5 every 5 quests. But the reality is that you can not hit this for quite a while. The better way to check this up is to watch not only sigils but also materials, since in his tests it seems that D curios have better mats.
But yes, i understand what you saying and i also think it's very dubious that you didn't got an single Supp V+ or anything similar on two 999 batchs.
Absolutely, normal numbers would only exists trough normal farm. Replicating the right box only gives you the idea that this is real or not, which is the point of his posts. (although we all can agree the post itself is a little suspicious at the minimum)
It's also funny that took you all this time to provide people some kinda of source and/or material to people cling on and understand wtf you are saying.
I will delete every sigil (but will back up save. It's so I can note down sigils easier) and document mats in the batch. Currently at 400+ Curios so it's gonna be done cooking in 2-3 days.