Please explain the ME mechanics?

[Cata]

Is it possible someone can explain the mechanics behind being FM'ed

I've put my screenshot up and you can see Bournmouth had 2 shots, 1 shot on target, 37% possesion, played s**t, had a player sent off and they still bloody managed to FM me!

What are the mechanics behind the match engine to produce such results?

I'm not bothered/interested about my tactics (and no I didn't stick it on ultra attack and bombard their goal and kill my own space etc..), "getting good" or the result, or the fact I played both Jones and Smalling

I'm just interested in how the A.I can play so badly, score and get a favourable result, cos I know if my stats read like theirs I'm not so sure the ME would give me such favours!

Any ideas?


https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1602167321

[showakilla]

carnt seem to get mt tactical familiarity up even with in game editor

[draconis76]

post your tactic
nobody can explain you anything if you only show the results

it is possible as a weaker team getting a result like this one

i think the ai played very defensive, counter and had a good goal keeper

i reached with a similar tactic as league 1 club at away games two times a 0:0 against premier leage teams and won the rematch at home

[Cata]

Originally posted by Saykuri:

post your tactic
nobody can explain you anything if you only show the results

it is possible as a weaker team getting a result like this one

i think the ai played very defensive, counter and had a good goal keeper

i reached with a similar tactic as league 1 club at away games two times a 0:0 against premier leage teams and won the rematch at home

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1602369022

My tactic that I use/used. I make adjustments depending on which team I play against and who plays but that's the basis.

[Alberdzik]

It keeps happening to me as well. My team can win a EURO League match and lose a cup game to a third tier 4-1 wtf

[fourfourtwo79]

No one can specifically. If I'd code a computer simulation, I would take studies and analytics into account. If the developers wouldn't do this they would code a fantasy rather than a simulation. Studies suggest the following: even the biggest chances mostly tend to be about 50/50 affairs, one on ones 1 in 3, reasonably big chances 1 in 5, the average shto conversion 1 in 10ish, headers generally being harder to convert than shots, and so on. Additionally, the chance matters far far more than the player who has it. Whilst that's simplistic, let's assume this were applied, and nothing else. Not only would that already ensure some inherently randomness that is a big part of football.

Every shot during a season has a chance of being a goal. Some larger, some smaller. Therefore, unless you don't concede a single shot over the season, you would concede goals at some point. Managers do in football. City conceded an average of barely 6 shots every match. Thus in every single match last term they conceded, they conceded off very few shots. Some of that is an inherent part of how attacking Guardiola plays, mind. If you don't believe me, go to whoscored.com and look through their match stats. Highlight being a match where they conceded 3 goals off 4 shots against a struggling United.

The tactic you uploaded is one from Total Football Fan. Oft his tactics have little football logics whatsoever. He doees them every year, and they tend to have similar flaws (there is no flawless tactic anyhow). In tendency it does at least a bit what you suscribe it wouldn't do. However, given it's general miracle results, I don't see the issue. If anything, it is those results outperforming all ability you should be reporting. I personally would whish such stuff to go and the tactical module to be overhauled, as even real nonsensical decisions can affect the AI also. The entire FM download communities tend to be dominated by stuff that would never mcu hhappen on a football pitch. It's also always of the attacking ilk, whilst the AI too readily keeps an army of players behind the ball. For as long as they do such, they won't get many shots. That doesn't always equal playing badly, it means they are extremely focused on making it harder to score. There's like 1% of players (https://community.sigames.com/topic/391460-park-the-bus/ ) who even toy with similar ideas, which means the AI has an edge right here. Thus, it tends to be exclusively the AI who ever scores from few shots. Sometimes, that goal can be off a bug. But it's going to happen either way for as long as you cannot keep them down to zero shots the entire season. Highly unlikely, innit?

[Cata]

Originally posted by fourfourtwo79:

Every shot during a season has a chance of being a goal. Some larger, some smaller. Therefore, unless you don't concede a single shot over the season, you would concede goals at some point. Managers do in football. City conceded an average of barely 6 shots every match. Thus in every single match last term they conceded, they conceded off very few shots. Some of that is an inherent part of how attacking Guardiola plays, mind. If you don't believe me, go to whoscored.com and look through their match stats. Highlight being a match where they conceded 3 goals off 4 shots against a struggling United.

That quote basically! (Every shot is a 50/50 RNG)

I read that "park the bus" topic you mentioned and yeah the guy basically replecated the reverse situation. The only thing I noticed was his chosen screenshots were all 0-0 i.e. minus the magic 1 goal wonder shot the AI get (and no i don't believe in any conspericies of ME cheating agaisnt us). Just thought I'd mention it.

Genuinelly never heard of TFF, but I just spent 20 mins reading his post, tactics etc.. A lot of his stuff is logic based on a few excellent forum topics based on other websites that are a few years old.

The tactic I posted is genuinely mine own but a patch work of advice from the web i.e. triangle midfield of De/Su/At, asymetrical flanks, caution/standard mentality to open space etc..

Thanks for the answer though

[fourfourtwo79]

Well technically there would be also more RNG factors.

Tactics, if you keep more men behind the ball and drop deep, the shots on average will be in tighter spaces (harder to convert) than vice versa. Additionally AI play differently. The game doesn't have the feedback to show this, and it's subjective. But if it would a lot of the cases of supposedly getting "FM'd" would look more like this... that's from my experience https://www.theringer.com/soccer/2018/6/27/17511596/2018-world-cup-germany-south-korea-mexico-sweden-elimination

Hidden consistency. Sometimes teams will have a bad day at the office. May also affect forwards, in particular if not subbed when growing increasingly frustrated / nervous

etc.

Originally posted by Misko:

Genuinelly never heard of TFF, but I just spent 20 mins reading his post, tactics etc.. A lot of his stuff is logic based on a few excellent forum topics based on other websites that are a few years old.

He even always argues you should better not think about football much. :D He has a point in that the crazy "winning formulas" always tend to be fairly crazy things -- they always exploit engine and AI holes and grant a seasonal shot conversion advantage typically over opponents (always around 10% average for the AI as to their team reports) unheard of in real football. Technically ,matches on average aren't even close. However, they also lead to curious matches... Well the thing you linked is his current "Battlemaster V5". At least it shows as such when entered into the game, including the file name. I've already seen it a couple days ago. What it "suffers" from imo sometimes is that the wingers on FM can't be kept to always stay wide. In the final third, they eventually narrow in front of goal. When the DLP/support pushes up, that in tendency makes players hold a picnic in the middle of the park. Would be real interesting how many goals are set piece based (attacking throw ins included) vs open positional play. There's somebody who has basically discovered a corner cheat whereas the team would average a corner goal per match. :D Apparently this is in parts influenced by that the AI never to rarely covers the far post sufficiently (which could be patched).

[Terminal Velocity]

It's the AI Director kicking in. I'm more and more convinced there is some kind of global AI director behind the scenes to keep the world interesting.

So unless you use tactics that break the AI consistently, you will run into these same patterns over and over again.

One season you are owning everybody, the following season your players just forget how to even pass.
The match engine can only display one team performing well and the other team performing badly, and the way to show a team performing badly is bad passing, bad defending, a myriad of shots never going in or failed one-on-ones, goalkeepers just standing there watching the ball go in, etc. So even when you end up with 15 shots on target, you will see them all saved, but your opponent will shot once and score and win the game. That's how it works.

Other symptons are consistent 94 min. goals to for a draw several matches in a row, or a penalty conceded in the only attack ever from the other team, or your players suddenly tackling like madmen and getting red cards. Or last ditch clearances becoming a superb assist that leaves one guy running past your defense and scoring. Etc. etc. etc.

It's the simulation considering your team will now have to have some disadvantages (consider them as "debuffs" if you play RPGs), and then the engine rendering your team as playing disastrously, and your opponents suddenly looking like they are Barcelona at their peak.

To add insult to the injury the engine suggests you need to change your tactics because they are not working out anymore when you dont win several matches in a row, however, your tactic still works and it's just the players "forgetting" how to play, which does not make sense. It's basically saying "I dont' care if this still works for you and your stats are still good, I'm gonna make you lose till you change your tactic just because".

Of course this is just an opinion I have no proof of any AI Director - it looks like it after playing hundreds of matches these last FM iterations. The patterns are there, you can see them coming from a mile away every time.

[Cata]

Originally posted by fourfourtwo79:

https://www.theringer.com/soccer/2018/6/27/17511596/2018-world-cup-germany-south-korea-mexico-sweden-elimination

Very informative article, a good read up on numbers and stats

Originally posted by fourfourtwo79:

Well the thing you linked is his current "Battlemaster V5". At least it shows as such when entered into the game, including the file name. I've already seen it a couple days ago. What it "suffers" from imo sometimes is that the wingers on FM can't be kept to always stay wide. In the final third, they eventually narrow in front of goal. When the DLP/support pushes up, that in tendency makes players hold a picnic in the middle of the park. Would be real interesting how many goals are set piece based (attacking throw ins included) vs open positional play. There's somebody who has basically discovered a corner cheat whereas the team would average a corner goal per match. :D Apparently this is in parts influenced by that the AI never to rarely covers the far post sufficiently (which could be patched).

If it's similar it's purely coincidental

My wide front players play brilliantly out wide. All my top assists and goals are from IF/W/WB and shared evenly. I use them to stretch the oppostion and create space for my forward in the centre. My IF has provided quite a lot of assists for my W. I picked that up from a recent article on playing them asymetricaly, and the midfield triangle I picked up from here

https://community.sigames.com/topic/292186-pairs-amp-combinations-part-1-central-midfielders/

It's 5 years old but I follow it like the bible for my centre 3. An AM (a), DLP (su) and BWM (de) in a top triangle is devestating.

Just gotta tweak my defensive line, find a role for Lukaku and find a tweak for a bottom triangle in big away days. My attacking triangle just gets me pumped by the likes of M/city 5-1 away ☹

[Terminal Velocity]

Unless you find an strategy that breaks the AI, you will always have these kind of matches and losing streaks. There's nothing you can do about it. No amount of "tweaking" will help. Either you find tactics the AI can never deal with, or go into bad streaks.

And don't get dragged into the arguments of people who compare a videogame to real football, this is NOT REAL FOOTBALL and whatever happens in real life has no correlation to what happens in this computer videogame. The engine may be tweaked to return stats similar to matches in the real world but they are 2 completely different things.

[Neil Brock]

Originally posted by Dat 900mmr guy:

It's the AI Director kicking in. I'm more and more convinced there is some kind of global AI director behind the scenes to keep the world interesting.

So unless you use tactics that break the AI consistently, you will run into these same patterns over and over again.

One season you are owning everybody, the following season your players just forget how to even pass.
The match engine can only display one team performing well and the other team performing badly, and the way to show a team performing badly is bad passing, bad defending, a myriad of shots never going in or failed one-on-ones, goalkeepers just standing there watching the ball go in, etc. So even when you end up with 15 shots on target, you will see them all saved, but your opponent will shot once and score and win the game. That's how it works.

Other symptons are consistent 94 min. goals to for a draw several matches in a row, or a penalty conceded in the only attack ever from the other team, or your players suddenly tackling like madmen and getting red cards. Or last ditch clearances becoming a superb assist that leaves one guy running past your defense and scoring. Etc. etc. etc.

It's the simulation considering your team will now have to have some disadvantages (consider them as "debuffs" if you play RPGs), and then the engine rendering your team as playing disastrously, and your opponents suddenly looking like they are Barcelona at their peak.

To add insult to the injury the engine suggests you need to change your tactics because they are not working out anymore when you dont win several matches in a row, however, your tactic still works and it's just the players "forgetting" how to play, which does not make sense. It's basically saying "I dont' care if this still works for you and your stats are still good, I'm gonna make you lose till you change your tactic just because".

Of course this is just an opinion I have no proof of any AI Director - it looks like it after playing hundreds of matches these last FM iterations. The patterns are there, you can see them coming from a mile away every time.

What you've said here has absolutely no basis of fact on how the match engine works. No offence, but I feel this Billy Madison quote is an appropriate response:

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response, were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

[Terminal Velocity]

Originally posted by Neil Brock:

Originally posted by Dat 900mmr guy:

It's the AI Director kicking in. I'm more and more convinced there is some kind of global AI director behind the scenes to keep the world interesting.

So unless you use tactics that break the AI consistently, you will run into these same patterns over and over again.

One season you are owning everybody, the following season your players just forget how to even pass.
The match engine can only display one team performing well and the other team performing badly, and the way to show a team performing badly is bad passing, bad defending, a myriad of shots never going in or failed one-on-ones, goalkeepers just standing there watching the ball go in, etc. So even when you end up with 15 shots on target, you will see them all saved, but your opponent will shot once and score and win the game. That's how it works.

Other symptons are consistent 94 min. goals to for a draw several matches in a row, or a penalty conceded in the only attack ever from the other team, or your players suddenly tackling like madmen and getting red cards. Or last ditch clearances becoming a superb assist that leaves one guy running past your defense and scoring. Etc. etc. etc.

It's the simulation considering your team will now have to have some disadvantages (consider them as "debuffs" if you play RPGs), and then the engine rendering your team as playing disastrously, and your opponents suddenly looking like they are Barcelona at their peak.

To add insult to the injury the engine suggests you need to change your tactics because they are not working out anymore when you dont win several matches in a row, however, your tactic still works and it's just the players "forgetting" how to play, which does not make sense. It's basically saying "I dont' care if this still works for you and your stats are still good, I'm gonna make you lose till you change your tactic just because".

Of course this is just an opinion I have no proof of any AI Director - it looks like it after playing hundreds of matches these last FM iterations. The patterns are there, you can see them coming from a mile away every time.

What you've said here has absolutely no basis of fact on how the match engine works. No offence, but I feel this Billy Madison quote is an appropriate response:

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response, were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

I may not know what the simulation engine does behind the scenes and there may not be any "AI Director", but it's really obvious people who won't use tactics designed to break the AI suffer for these kind of patterns the OP shows in his screenshot, and many more.
Also, no rational thought? Rambling? You may correct me in my opinion of an AI Director, but it's not really ranting or rambling or unintelligible or incoherent. I'm not ranting about the game, I do play the game as you can tell by my hours in-game. Did I struck a nerve?

[Metro1d-X]

You hurt all 3 inches of the developers little feelings, how cute. I think the only incoherent response is the one of which someone uses a quote from a movie that is soon to be 24 years old. #♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥

[Sunzero]

This FM 2019 is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ random. Dont wonder about the RNG Results. It is the worst FM since long time. Many Bugs, many unlovely Designs , many faults ....dont like this FM

[Tralalaiko]

Remember this game? http://i.imgur.com/aYFRj.jpg Football is a great game because of games like this. Sometimes luck is greater than skill.