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Around this time last year a couple of us were setting ourselves crazy but fun challenges in the game (I'll find a related thread after posting this and then edit this one to include a link for reference / curiosity), one of which was Hardcore & limited to a maximum of 8 dwellings - meaning that we had to survive to the end of the Iron Age with no more than 40 population at any one time (and that many only in the later stages of the game when the 8 dwellings had been fully upgraded to actually accommodate them!). It was certainly a different sort of challenge, but surprisingly fun.
Raider numbers in those playthroughs maxed out in the 21-23 range, never once exceeded 23, and only actually reached that number on one or two occasions. Mostly they came in the 18-21 range when own population was 36+.
Your experience does however seem to suggest that the current Age may also factor into the equation, but to be fair it could also just be the RNG factor since the size of the band is always variable to some extent.
Edit:
https://steamcommunity.com/app/858810/discussions/0/3200370144974599621/
Latest Edit: to correct precise max raider numbers during 8-hut Hardcore challenge both with (max: 18) and without (max: 23) fortifications, as detailed in the following thread:
https://steamcommunity.com/app/858810/discussions/0/3200366575423480270/
As contradictory as it may sound given my previous post above... sheer strength in numbers is still your best bet against raiders. While having more people does mean facing even more raiders in each band, their numbers only ever increase (at max) by a certain percentage of your own total population - e.g. 1 more raider for every +2 adults / elderly in your tribe (or whatever the actual number works out at). So long as those two new warriors are reasonably equipped for the current Age in comparison to the raiders' tech, the advantage will always lie with your people.
Bear in mind also that population and technology go hand-in-hand in this game: more people doing more things, especially new things or in greater quantity, means more knowledge is acquired, faster. The numerical strength of your tribe may result in more raiders the stronger you grow, but it is also the key to your own success both on and off the battlefield. You just have to make sure you put that extra knowledge gain to good use in properly equipping your people as warriors for when the need arises.
Additionally as others said raise the population is key. Also only advance an era, when you're ready, immediately after an attack. You can also see what era the enemy is in when you defeat them and pick up their weapons. If you're behind them in era and not ready to advance than you're gonna have a rough future.
I suppose reading these statements that if you can accomplish these challenges you can definetly achieve "Ancient warriors". Though the main advice that I read is to increase population while you say that it is related to the raiders number... I'm not sure I can win this scenario.
If you're struggling to continue from where you're at, I would recommend a fresh start bearing in mind the advice offered in this and similar recent threads, i.e. focus on population growth, missile strength, and make the most of the 10 / 15 / 25 years you have before the raiders themselves enter Copper / Bronze / Iron Age, respectively. Aim to enter each of those ages around the same time, or just before, the raiders will, to max out your population growth, knowledge gain & fortifications each step of the way.
That should give the best chance of entering the Iron Age with a strong enough foundation to push through to steel weapons, after which it should be pretty easy going to the final milestone.
I had to restart the north hard scenario 4 times I think. 4th time finally finishing it. That was so frustrating cause the previous ones were all like 6 hours of game-play before I started failing. I even took a break from the game before coming back to do the 4th try.
I found the north hard scenario more difficult than ancient warriors, but I did ancient warriors after so I was probably more prepared.
To OP for me I think some key notes to success are:
1. always increasing your population right from the start. Always have room for more people by minimum of 5(?) 10 (?)- don't forget spiritual boosts
A) I don't think their numbers rely on your population I believe they have a max. But if you have a low population you'll get decimated.
2. domestication to feed your settlement - pigs and goats for food and sheep for wool
3. increase your crafting to like 150 % of like clothes so you can buy animals (or whatever else you need) from traders and than eventually I like warm and light clothes
4. do extra things that you may not have done previously to get more points into advancements. Build those 5 mortars (or however many and whatever) even if you won't use them. Hunt those extra animals for some extra points to and if you just need one or something don't advance an era and make them go extinct.... I did this more so for the achievement to unlock everything in a certain amount of time, but can be helpful in anything.
5. I like to get past bronze and copper ASAP as the resources you need from those eras is more than steel/ iron, but for hard challenges can't skip it completely (see point 4 to have points stalked up and ready and waiting).
6. You don't need everything unlocked from all eras just what you want in later eras. Like i personally don't use horses or donkeys so no need for plows. Helps me stalk up points for things I do need.
7. I only farm grain/ straw and later plax which helps my workload, especially early on.
8. You don't have to fully follow the years the raiders advanced era. But if you see they advanced an era (by looking at weapons/ armor they dropped) and you're not ready to advance you're going to have a rough time going forward.
9. Advance eras, when you're ready, right after you fend off raiders. And once you do build all that up quickly so you're crafting the next era of weapons/ armor and whatever else ASAP.
10. You can build rock piles farther out from your settlement for early warning detection of raiders
11. My personal preference - You don't actually need walls surrounding your settlement, just 4 gates in each direction. The raiders have a specific order to attack, something like gates, certain buildings, walls. Therefore don't put buildings past the gates , especially stables (farms are okay). The raiders will go to your ambush setup - see next.
12. Each gate with 2 to 3 platforms and 2 to 4 towers a little bit back from the gate. Close the gates initially then open them after a bit when their main force is at the gate so your ground forces can engage while your range is still hitting them.
12. Spears, arrows and than later crossbows at 100% so everyone on the platforms and towers have enough weapons. Excess can be used as trade.
Huh. Why not? Carts are a lot better than sledges.
And plow are a serious manpower saver during planting season. Neither of those animals should require much food as they don't eat or drink when harnessed, and if you un-harness the cows in summer and autumn you even get some extra milk.
Edit: Also pulses are actually great for reducing your workload spikes, as you spread around the work from two seasons into four. Which making it less likely that your settlement chokes due to too having too much to do at once.
Apart from that, nice tips. Though I think you mean spears, bows and composite bows, as neither arrows nor crossbows are in the game. :)
Yea i was definitely forgetting the wording of bows and such haha.
My workloads are really only high early game and until my population has enough to farm then drops down under 50% and more. I don't do bread either until I have the items from late eras. So no walls, only two kinds of farms, highly dependent on domestic animals for food ASAP and nets cutting out of lot of unnecessary work for my people.
You don't have to do them real far, just enough that it'll give you enough advanced warning. I'll put bridges some places where I cross rivers often thats further upstream from my settlement and that's sufficient enough as well.