Curse, Bless and probability query

[Calico-Jack]

The rules say Curse and Bless cards are shuffled into the Attack Modifier deck, I interpret that as:

there is a stack of 20 cards to which X extra cards are added.

If I am reading that correctly - with every extra card added, the probability of getting a specific result lowers exponentially.

[Ked]

Yes.
But in general, you dont really want a specific result, most of the time you wanna avoid one specific result, the x0. So there is rarely a case where you are getting too many blesses. That changes with certain character that have very low damage attacks, element generation or debuff on the modifier but generally, you are almost never unhappy with drawing a bless (unless you have disadvantage).

The distinction is made quite apparent when playing Jaws of the Lion mercenary, specificly Hatchet and Demolitionist. Demolitionist rely on having a smaller perk deck and have less uses for bless but highly regards advantage, Hatchet is the polar opposite.

[Calico-Jack]

Originally posted by Foggy82:

Yes.
But in general, you dont really want a specific result, most of the time you wanna avoid one specific result, the x0.

Hey Foggy, thanks for replying.

Currently I'm only focussing on Curse and Bless. In those cases players, even if they aren't trying to use the modifiers intentionally, they do want specific results - namely to limit damage and to avoid being forced to spend more cards. Getting a x0 or a x2 will prolong or shorten the encounter in some way.

With the TT game, the Modifier deck is shuffled as soon as Curse or Bless are received and I imagine used cards are placed at the bottom of the stack with players drawing from the top (I say imagine as I've only read through the rules, never actually played a game), with Bless and Curse being discarded after use for their knock-on effects on the deck.

What I'm driving at is - in terms of game mechanics, you could simply swap out the Modifier deck with a d20 and not see any noticeable change in the results, the 20 being constant. Using something bigger like a d100 instead, would alter the effectiveness of the weighting applied to -1, +0 and +1.

So lets say the player has picked up 2 Bless and 1 Curse. In a 20 card deck the probability of getting a +0 (the biggest grouping) is 30%. In a 23 card deck the probability of getting a +0 goes down to 26%. Likewise -1 and +1 (second biggest groupings) have 25% probability in a 20 card deck, and drop to approx 22% in a 23 card deck.

[Haru Lunes]

You have one very important missinterpretation in the middle part there - used cards are discarded and the deck is only reshuffled when either the native x2 or the native x0 was drawn, at the end of the round where this happened.

Which actually adds a lot of complications to your calculation/you're only calculating for the situation right after a reshuffle of the entire deck occured.

[The_Mell]

Originally posted by Calico-Jack:

With the TT game, the Modifier deck is shuffled as soon as Curse or Bless are received and I imagine used cards are placed at the bottom of the stack with players drawing from the top (I say imagine as I've only read through the rules, never actually played a game), with Bless and Curse being discarded after use for their knock-on effects on the deck.

Nope, the drawn cards are kept as an extra stack which you can check out to get an idea what was drawn and what is left.
The rule for curses say:
"If a figure is cursed, it must shuffle a CURSE card into its remaining attack modifier deck."

Yes, adding cards will decrease probability for a specific event...
...but more important is that any curse will increase your chance to miss and lower your average damage (like expected value in probability theory).

[Calico-Jack]

Originally posted by Haru Lunes:

You have one very important missinterpretation in the middle part there - used cards are discarded and the deck is only reshuffled when either the native x2 or the native x0 was drawn, at the end of the round where this happened.

Which actually adds a lot of complications to your calculation/you're only calculating for the situation right after a reshuffle of the entire deck occurred.

I'm new to the game so yes I'm open to the idea could be missing something and yes I was highlighting only what having 23 cards would be like, but bear with me.

As far as how combat goes regarding the scenario I presented - here are my assumptions regarding combat in general:

• The player goes into a combat holding 23 cards (20 + 2 Bless + 1 Curse), the last shuffle happening when the last Bless/Curse card was added.
  
  
• There will be various turns until the combat ends, during which the top card will be looked at to decide Combat Modifiers. How many turns depends on how long it takes to die or kill the enemy.
  
  
• If a Curse/Bless card hasn't come out the deck will still contain 23 cards and not have been shuffled.
  
  
• If a Curse/Bless card has come out the card will be discarded, reducing the card count to by 1 and the deck will be shuffled, repeating on each Bless/Curse event until the deck count reaches 20 .

However from the moment the card count changes until it returns to 20, weighting will be skewed.

Taking a wide view - we're talking about percentage points variance on an "on paper" calculation, so there won't be a massive difference to the average that can be calculated from the sum of the turns, and the on-paper calcs.

However, and this is where I'm coming from, I'm actually basing what I'm saying on a programatic model I'm working on of Gloomhaven modifiers.
Over a range of tries there will be variances that seem to defy probability, particularly if you are counting on having a specific result like getting X2 or not getting X0 in a specific turn.

This last is why I was presenting a snapshot of a worst case scenario, not because I didn't realise there could be other outcomes, but to highlight how weird probability is when you look at it from a granular perspective, the perspective most gaming consists of - individual events governed by mechanics using some form of RNG.

The whole simulating stuff programmatically is part of prep I'm doing for a section of a guide I'm writing where I want to highlight ideas like odds of 1 in 3 is 30% probability, can vary. Like rolling a d6 won't get you a 6 every 6th turn.

[Calico-Jack]

Originally posted by The_Mell:

Nope, the drawn cards are kept as an extra stack which you can check out to get an idea what was drawn and what is left.

so what you're saying is the deck is split into 2 piles - "unseen" which you draw from to get a modifier and "seen" were you can check past outcomes. This doesn't however change the number of cards used in the shuffle to order the spilt deck unless a Bless or a Curse was drawn, right?

Originally posted by The_Mell:

The rule for curses say:
"If a figure is cursed, it must shuffle a CURSE card into its remaining attack modifier deck."

Interesting point that a modifier could be added during a combat. This is something I'd considered but I feel this behaviour is similar to the randomness of Advantage and Disadvantage cropping up during combat, whilst having different implementations. I'll be modelling these kinds of chaotic actors once I feel I have consistent model of the Modfier deck. Currently I'm looking at whether actually shuffling the deck vs choosing random elements from a deck with a fixed order would affect the outcome in meaningful ways. This what got me into this in the first place - imagining how the devs implemented the digital version.

Originally posted by The_Mell:

Yes, adding cards will decrease probability for a specific event...
...but more important is that any curse will increase your chance to miss and lower your average damage (like expected value in probability theory).

This is what I find fascinating, yes this is true of an average, but those times when you get a x0 when you least want it and don't get a x2 when you really need it happens more often than the average suggests, leading to a palpable cognitive disconnect. I'm fairly sure there will be an academic paper somewhere with a numeric answer to this but I just enjoy figuring stuff out for myself for the heck of it.

That said, I also hate bringing numbers into games and prefer to "feel" stuff, but what can I say - I got bit.

[Manslayer]

Modifier deck only shuffles on thr base x0 x2. Curses and blessings do not shuffle the deck. The reason they do not use a d20 is perks, and certain cards, modify the deck removing negatives, adding positives or adding negatives.

An end game deck might only have one -1 and an x0.

[Artan]

Maybe I am wrong, but It sounds like you have misunderstood how the modifier deck, reshuffling, curses, blesses etc all work. It is covered on page 10 the rulebook which is just here:

https://kirsanova.relfbo.qapubl.club/view/598058/10/

I think it is because you have used the following terms interchangeably and they mean different things:

Add to Deck - Adding to deck means to add 1 card to you current attack modifier deck. EG if you receive a curse in a scenario then a curse card is added to your current attack modifier deck

Shuffle Deck - Shuffling means to re-add the already used/discarded cards back to your modifier deck. The 0x and the 2x both feature a shuffle icon and that means if these cards are drawn then they and all other used/discarded default attack modifier cards (not discarded curses or blesses from road event, special rules or received in the scenario from an ally or enemy action) are added back into the modifier decsk.

A reshuffle is a reset of the modifier deck back to it's default state + any curses & blesses that have been added in this scenario fro road event, special rules or that have not been discarded yet. As such it is impossible for either 0x and 2x to be not in your modifier deck as the moment they are drawn, instead of going into the discarded pile of the modifier deck instead the deck is re-shuffled meaning any dickered modifier cards go back in!

Maybe if you need further advice try asking on the Discord rather than the Steam forums. Once is a place where people who have played GH Digital congregate and the other is a cesspit!

Good luck and have fun!

[Manslayer]

Originally posted by Artan:

Maybe I am wrong, but It sounds like you have misunderstood how the modifier deck, reshuffling, curses, blesses etc all work. It is covered on page 10 the rulebook which is just here:

https://kirsanova.relfbo.qapubl.club/view/598058/10/

I think it is because you have used the following terms interchangeably and they mean different things:

Add to Deck - Adding to deck means to add 1 card to you current attack modifier deck. EG if you receive a curse in a scenario then a curse card is added to your current attack modifier deck

Shuffle Deck - Shuffling means to re-add the already used/discarded cards back to your modifier deck. The 0x and the 2x both feature a shuffle icon and that means if these cards are drawn then they and all other used/discarded default attack modifier cards (not discarded curses or blesses from road event, special rules or received in the scenario from an ally or enemy action) are added back into the modifier decsk.

A reshuffle is a reset of the modifier deck back to it's default state + any curses & blesses that have been added in this scenario fro road event, special rules or that have not been discarded yet. As such it is impossible for either 0x and 2x to be not in your modifier deck as the moment they are drawn, instead of going into the discarded pile of the modifier deck instead the deck is re-shuffled meaning any dickered modifier cards go back in!

Maybe if you need further advice try asking on the Discord rather than the Steam forums. Once is a place where people who have played GH Digital congregate and the other is a cesspit!

Good luck and have fun!

You can have a deck with no x0 or x2 in it, as the shuffle happens at the end of the round, not on card reveal. So an aor can hit both x0 and an x2 and then a normal attack might draw from the deck with no x0 or x2. Likewise monsters will Continue to go without shuffling if they hit an x0 and/or an x2.

Only exception to this is if you empty your pile and still need to draw, then you will shuffle as normal.

[Artan]

Originally posted by Manslayer:

Originally posted by Artan:

Maybe I am wrong, but It sounds like you have misunderstood how the modifier deck, reshuffling, curses, blesses etc all work. It is covered on page 10 the rulebook which is just here:

https://kirsanova.relfbo.qapubl.club/view/598058/10/

I think it is because you have used the following terms interchangeably and they mean different things:

Add to Deck - Adding to deck means to add 1 card to you current attack modifier deck. EG if you receive a curse in a scenario then a curse card is added to your current attack modifier deck

Shuffle Deck - Shuffling means to re-add the already used/discarded cards back to your modifier deck. The 0x and the 2x both feature a shuffle icon and that means if these cards are drawn then they and all other used/discarded default attack modifier cards (not discarded curses or blesses from road event, special rules or received in the scenario from an ally or enemy action) are added back into the modifier decsk.

A reshuffle is a reset of the modifier deck back to it's default state + any curses & blesses that have been added in this scenario fro road event, special rules or that have not been discarded yet. As such it is impossible for either 0x and 2x to be not in your modifier deck as the moment they are drawn, instead of going into the discarded pile of the modifier deck instead the deck is re-shuffled meaning any dickered modifier cards go back in!

Maybe if you need further advice try asking on the Discord rather than the Steam forums. Once is a place where people who have played GH Digital congregate and the other is a cesspit!

Good luck and have fun!

You can have a deck with no x0 or x2 in it, as the shuffle happens at the end of the round, not on card reveal. So an aor can hit both x0 and an x2 and then a normal attack might draw from the deck with no x0 or x2. Likewise monsters will Continue to go without shuffling if they hit an x0 and/or an x2.

Only exception to this is if you empty your pile and still need to draw, then you will shuffle as normal.

Yes - within a round is the exception as the modifier deck is only shuffled at the end of the round. This is in the link I gave to page 10 of the rulebook where it states:

"A shuffle symbol.
At the end of the round in which a “Null” or “2x” card is drawn from a deck, players will shuffle all the played modifier cards back into that particular draw deck. This shuffling also happens if a modifier card must be drawn and there are none left in the draw pile."

As such if someone was to follow my post they should be reading this and understanding it!

I was trying to make a point to clarify that they will never end up in your discarded pile and therefore out of your deck opposed to them having been drawn in another attack in the same round. You are right though that I have rather misrepresented this by saying "the moment they are drawn" rather than "the round they are drawn".

[Ked]

Originally posted by Artan:

Maybe if you need further advice try asking on the Discord rather than the Steam forums. Once is a place where people who have played GH Digital congregate and the other is a cesspit!

Good luck and have fun!

Agreed, the discord server is a cesspit.

[Artan]

Originally posted by Foggy82:

Originally posted by Artan:

Maybe if you need further advice try asking on the Discord rather than the Steam forums. Once is a place where people who have played GH Digital congregate and the other is a cesspit!

Good luck and have fun!

Agreed, the discord server is a cesspit.

Badum-tish.... Tumbleweed rolls by.

[RobO]

FYI there are a couple of apps for the board game that breakdown the math for every card added to the deck. Some of them I think will even show the chances changing after each draw.

[Calico-Jack]

Originally posted by Artan:

https://kirsanova.relfbo.qapubl.club/view/598058/10/

Thanks for the post - your game definitions are the clearest I've come across. I did find various flipbook versions of the rules on the net along with the Cephalofair Games maintained htmlised version on the Dized site.

I'm new to the game so clearly my gleaned knowledge is incomplete and/or partially understood/misunderstood.

However my question was prompted because, for my own enjoyment, I'm knocking up an attack modifier simulator.

The current version of the simulation selects and discards one card at a time from the modifier deck which also contains 2 Bless and 1 curse card.
It assumes each draw is part of a series of attacks which end, and then the deck is shuffled and a new series of combat turns begins. The cycle repeats enough times that I can see how shuffling affects output and what highs and lows show up in individual attacks.

So in that light I'm looking to accurately model how Curse/Bless cards interact with the modifier deck and how much they will affect the RNG workings.

And if out of all this I learn more about the game, whilst having some fun and interesting discussions - win win.

[Calico-Jack]

Originally posted by Manslayer:

The reason they do not use a d20 is perks, and certain cards, modify the deck removing negatives, adding positives or adding negatives.

An interesting story is where the modern d20 came from. The people who wrote D&D, Gary Gygax and David Arneson, started out using a bag full of numbered poker chips. Players in the early 1970s would fish for numbers at a time where most boardgames (Monopoly, Cleudo to name 2) had cards and d6. This bag powered means of generating random numbers slowly morphed into polyhedral dice but it wasn't until the 80s that the D&D rules started to make the d20 more central to the game because it was felt that rules could be plagiarised, but copying the dice would be harder.

So yes Gloomhaven mechanics are built around the existence of a deck of 20 cards which serves as the stamina meter, round timer and so on, but the random number generator probably isn't a d20 for other considerations. You could change the rules so that the other mechanics were generated differently. In fact the digital version doesn't use physical cards at all, the number 20 however you cannot take out of the game.