Countless zeroes in a row

[Zorop]

Like playing on hard, did they put it at x5 chances to get a X0 on your attack? I understand probabilities but we've been counting and on our last 4 nights of playing, over half our attacks end in zeroes. There has to be something broken with the game right now. this is not normal.

[abyssalfury]

How many 0s do you have in your decks? If you're lower levels and have cleared the -1s/-2s out of your decks, then yeah you're going to have a pretty good chance of hitting a lot of 0s.

[scott_smart2000]

I'm pretty sure he's referring to the nulls or x0 not 0s, and it just happens. You'll run into an enemy unit that just seems to cause nulls to happen as I just got done with a scenario (all level 8s and 9s btw so leveling doesn't stop this from happening in fact with rolling modifiers it can make it worse) and my 4 character party hit 3 nulls in 2 rounds on one enemy. It's just RNG and bias as we never remember the x2 streaks or even +2 streaks. Level and difficulty has no effect on that.

[Teensies_King]

There is always going to be a chance of drawing x0 or x2 no matter your modifier deck. According to the devs in the discord, the shuffling algorithm when a null or crit is drawn just grabs each card from the discard and randomly inserts it back into the modifier deck. This has a 50-50 chance of making the x0 appear before or after the x2. Probably not what you wanted to hear, but nothing is off with the shuffling of the modifier decks unless the built-in System.Random function is off.

As for rolling modifiers, they do not increase or decrease the chances of drawing a null or crit. What they do though is lessen the effects of advantage and disadvantage (making advantage worse and disadvantage better) due to 1-stack advantage. If you got a null when you had advantage, you were going to draw it anyways; same for a crit with disadvantage.

[Zorop]

Originally posted by abyssalfury:

How many 0s do you have in your decks? If you're lower levels and have cleared the -1s/-2s out of your decks, then yeah you're going to have a pretty good chance of hitting a lot of 0s.

x0. not +0.

[Zorop]

Originally posted by Teensies_King:

There is always going to be a chance of drawing x0 or x2 no matter your modifier deck. According to the devs in the discord, the shuffling algorithm when a null or crit is drawn just grabs each card from the discard and randomly inserts it back into the modifier deck. This has a 50-50 chance of making the x0 appear before or after the x2. Probably not what you wanted to hear, but nothing is off with the shuffling of the modifier decks unless the built-in System.Random function is off.

As for rolling modifiers, they do not increase or decrease the chances of drawing a null or crit. What they do though is lessen the effects of advantage and disadvantage (making advantage worse and disadvantage better) due to 1-stack advantage. If you got a null when you had advantage, you were going to draw it anyways; same for a crit with disadvantage.

There is no way the odds are the same when during 4 nights, you get 20 times more X0 than x2. Its redundant.

[ExperimentalGamer]

What enemies are you fighting?

Some of it might just be normal fallible human memory. If you crit five times in a row one night and whiff five times in a row the next, you might not remember the night when you were overkilling everything but very much remember the night when all your big losses and clutch plays were nulled out.

The rest, as Scott pointed out, some enemies will be able to curse you which places extra x0s into your deck. Imps of both types can be especially nasty for this. If you mouse over your character you can see what they have left in their deck. If they have a bunch of extra curses, there isn't much you can do about them except for suffer the effects; curses are only cleared out when they're drawn.

[Vailathi]

Also worth noting, if you have removed things like most of your +0 and -1 cards but haven't added anything substantial to your deck, that'll increase the odds of you getting a x0 as well. Getting through your draw cards faster means you're more likely to see both those x2's and x0's. Decided to do an advantage on an attack that hit 3 targets? That's 6 draw cards going through. Disadvantage on two targets? 4 draw cards. Say you don't get your crits on those draws, well you'll likely see them soon after that. Also abuse things like Advantage items and abilities as much as possible. Worried about doing that 3 hex attack and getting your x0s? Use eagle-eye goggles! Don't leave things to chance. Fill out your characters, buy those +1 potions, the poison daggers, anything you can do to swing things in your favor. You bet your ass that my tinkerer is using Eagle-Eye Goggles every time he uses Ink Bomb against those 3 elites. And if those Imps just put shields up, I'm using that crossbow AND that +1 attack potion.

"If you crit five times in a row one night and whiff five times in a row the next, you might not remember the night when you were overkilling everything but very much remember the night when all your big losses and clutch plays were nulled out."
And this. My brother-in-law and I play this on Monday Game Nights, a few months back we went through 4 devastating campaign rounds two weeks in a row. It wasn't even a by the hair loss, we were losing some quests within 4 rounds. I walked away from that wondering if I wanted to keep Monday as Gloomhaven Digital night or find something else for us. We went through 2 weeks of no losses as of today and I feel pretty good... but every first quest of the night I think to myself "This is the night we get decimated..."

[Slow Dog]

I've seen this problem reported several times, but when the complainant takes the trouble to actually record the number of nulls vs. the number of x2's the issue mysteriously goes away.

[Ragnarok]

i felt this was happening the other night ... near the end of a string of poor luck I did an AOE on 4 mobs, 3 got x0, . no perks used ... probability of that is crazy low but, still possible. I think it's fair to point out we completely ignore x2 when it's overkill, but sob over x0 because it always impacts the game.

[Shad]

Originally posted by Ragnarok:

i felt this was happening the other night ... near the end of a string of poor luck I did an AOE on 4 mobs, 3 got x0, . no perks used ... probability of that is crazy low but, still possible. I think it's fair to point out we completely ignore x2 when it's overkill, but sob over x0 because it always impacts the game.

If you got 3 *0 with a single AoE, that just means you were cursed. The deck has to be exhausted or is reshuffled at the end of your turn before the native x0 can be redraw.
If you have 10 curses in your deck, obviously you'll multiply the x0 you draw.

[Ragnarok]

My brother and I thought it wasn't possible, just had been so long since we did the TT version. Cheers ... that's presuming they've programmed it right anyway ;)

[Shadowwolf]

You can look at what is in your deck at any time. There is only one x0 naturally in the deck, but every time you draw it, it is reshuffled back in. There could be an issue with the shuffling mechanism, but that's unlikely. Sometimes bad stuff happens /shrug

[scott_smart2000]

Originally posted by Shad:

Originally posted by Ragnarok:

i felt this was happening the other night ... near the end of a string of poor luck I did an AOE on 4 mobs, 3 got x0, . no perks used ... probability of that is crazy low but, still possible. I think it's fair to point out we completely ignore x2 when it's overkill, but sob over x0 because it always impacts the game.

If you got 3 *0 with a single AoE, that just means you were cursed. The deck has to be exhausted or is reshuffled at the end of your turn before the native x0 can be redraw.
If you have 10 curses in your deck, obviously you'll multiply the x0 you draw.

That's actually not true. Maybe it should be how it works, but it doesn't now. Clearly, the game keeps the deck as-is when you draw your AOE so you can pull the same card each enemy you target. I've had it do that numerous times both for me and the enemy, and not only with nulls or x2 where you could argue it shuffled after drawing it. It's easy to see when you get multiple -2/+2 when you and definitely the enemy only have 1 of each.

Also, rolling modifiers do actually increase the odds of you drawing the null or the x2 simply because you're drawing more cards and drawing them more frequently. The only thing more terrifying in the game than getting punched by an enemy that has a 7 attack is doing a killshot on it with the Scoundrel or Mindthief and see 5 or 6 rolling modifiers go by knowing you haven't reshuffled the deck in a few turns. That's why taking the perk that removes 4 +0 cards is the dumbest perk ever if you have a ton of rolling modifiers.

[Les White]

Originally posted by scott_smart2000:

Originally posted by Shad:

If you got 3 *0 with a single AoE, that just means you were cursed. The deck has to be exhausted or is reshuffled at the end of your turn before the native x0 can be redraw.
If you have 10 curses in your deck, obviously you'll multiply the x0 you draw.

That's actually not true. Maybe it should be how it works, but it doesn't now. Clearly, the game keeps the deck as-is when you draw your AOE so you can pull the same card each enemy you target. I've had it do that numerous times both for me and the enemy, and not only with nulls or x2 where you could argue it shuffled after drawing it. It's easy to see when you get multiple -2/+2 when you and definitely the enemy only have 1 of each.

Also, rolling modifiers do actually increase the odds of you drawing the null or the x2 simply because you're drawing more cards and drawing them more frequently. The only thing more terrifying in the game than getting punched by an enemy that has a 7 attack is doing a killshot on it with the Scoundrel or Mindthief and see 5 or 6 rolling modifiers go by knowing you haven't reshuffled the deck in a few turns. That's why taking the perk that removes 4 +0 cards is the dumbest perk ever if you have a ton of rolling modifiers.

Rolling modifiers do not increase the odds of you drawing a null.

If you have a 12 card deck, with no rolling modifiers, you have a 1/12 chance of drawing the null.

If you add 2 rolling modifiers to the deck, what chance do you have of drawing the null?

The answer is 1/12.

The rolling cards are not terminal cards - meaning that you do not stop drawing when you draw one. You immediately (and always) draw another card. The only way you would have a better chance of drawing a null is if you had less terminal cards, but you do not. You still have 12.

Thought experiment. Lets say you have a 14 card deck (12 terminal and 2 rolling) and you go to make an attack. The first 2 cards drawn are rolling modifiers. What is your chance that the next card will be a null? It's still 1/12, because there are 12 cards left in your deck. Rolling modifiers in no way increase your chance of pulling the null.

Also, I have 250+ hours in this game and have never seen the behavior you have described. Screenshot it when it happens. It's actually really easy to record and test this.

The next time you think you see the game pulling the same card for you, restart the round. Your deck will reset as well. This allows you to take a screenshot of your deck before the attack, screenshot the results of the attack, and screenshot your deck after the attack.

But I am HIGHLY doubtful this happens. Please provide proof.

[Bafbegagglestick]

Originally posted by Zorop:

Like playing on hard, did they put it at x5 chances to get a X0 on your attack? I understand probabilities but we've been counting and on our last 4 nights of playing, over half our attacks end in zeroes. There has to be something broken with the game right now. this is not normal.

I had this kind of game yesterday, only I was playing the game IRL >_>
Sometimes you just get unlucky.