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Starving Poet says it better and more accurately than I do.
No. Not at all. The only RNG is when the infiltration mission spawns in a region. Once they start, they can't be stopped. They also take down the countries in a region is a specific order.
If you want a breakdown here's how they work.
1. There is a small chance every month that an infiltration mission will spawn. It has nothing to do with score, funding, or whatever. It's pure RNG.
2. When that mission spawns it will choose a region - NA / SA / Europe / etc. Because you can't have two of the same mission type coexisting in a single region, you can't have two infiltrations happening in NA at a time. The order that the countries in each region get infilitrated is hardcoded. Nothing you do can change it, score, activity, etc are irrelevant.
3. The first scout wave will spawn. If you shoot it down the game will roll up to one extra week before spawning the second wave. If you let them linger, then it will spawn the second wave immediately.
4. Repeat Step 3 until the Battleship wave approaches.
5. AS SOON AS THE Battleship wave spawns, the mission is considered a success, the aliens build a colony in the first free country in the list, that country leaves the council.
6. As soon as the mission completes - spawn a new mission to start the 1st of the next month in the same reason indefinitely.
tldr; Nothing you can do will stop infiltrations once they spawn. You can delay them a month or so from completing, but you can't stop them once they start.
The timer field is how long after the previous wave should this wave spawn in minutes. Like most things in xcom, this number can vary by 50-150%.
If you shoot down a wave, the next wave will have an additional delay of (30 * (RNG::generate(0, 400) + 48)) minutes or between 1 and 9 days.
This means that in an ideal situation, shooting down the first scout wave can extend the arrival of the medium wave by (15,000 * 1.5) + 13,440 minutes. That winds up being 25 days and will almost always push you past the end of the month giving the "implication" that the mission ended, but it didn't. This mission, however, can just take multiple months to complete.
You can't stop missions in xcom from completing before they hit the final wave. There is no logic for it.
That is straight from alienMissions.rul if you want to check it for yourself.
I didn't spot any innacuracies in Starving Poet's posts. This *is* definitively how it works in open x com.
The only real point at which any of this can be disputed is arguing with the guys that reverse engineered the vanilla game. TBH though, I'm pretty confident that they got it right.
Edit -
Also, to stop a retaliation, you have to shoot down or hide from *8* UFOs. If any one of them finds your base, the assault battleship appears. Once the assault battleship appears, it will keep appearing until it successfully lands on your base.
I have had aliens keep sending more retaliation scouts and even the battleship scouts plenty of times.