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Dawnguard in my opinion is definitely worth it IF you enjoy questing in this game. Right now at 5 bucks I'd say it's definitely worth it. It has difference choices with different outcomes, and it's about as enjoyable as any of the major guild quests. It also has a pretty game changing (but not particularly useful, in my opinon, as I was basically invincible by the time I played it) thing that can happen if you make certain choices. I'm sure some people love it for flavor.
As far as your point goes that "Why would I buy DLC if I can just get free mods?" maybe don't throw that question around too much. I think Bethesda asked themselves the same question, which is why they attempted to monetize mods. If too many people ask that question and don't buy any DLC don't be surprised if that happens again, popular opinion or not.
Dragonborn - Adds a whole island to explore with lots of quests. The main quest follows you trying to kill another dragonborn.
Dawnguard - Adds two groups that are the vampires and the Dawnguard. The Dawnguard is a group that kills vampires while the vampires want to turn the moon red which would allow vampires to roam freely. Side with the Dawnguard to stop the vampires or side with the vampires to carry out their plan. Regardless of which side you take you get a companion know as Serana who is the daughter of the vampire leader. You are also able to become a vampire but you are forced to become one if you side with the vampires.
Also many mods require you to have DLC and they're on sale right now so I would get them.
This isn't an answer to OP's question, but in my opinion, mods are mostly good for fixing and changing the game to one's liking. As for the quality, most, if not all, quest mods can't compete with a proper expansion.
Fortunately beth has a different situation going than gigantic publisher milking machines, which in my opinion, can never produce a product like skyrim due to lots of things. Hopefully they know it won't be good for them the minute they decide to monetize the mod and kill off the very essence of it.
I'm not sure if you're aware of it, but Bethesda and Valve didn't know any better. They've already tried to profit off of other peoples' mods. They "realized" their error when everyone complained about it. http://www.polygon.com/2015/4/27/8505883/valve-removing-paid-mods-from-steam
Yeah, I read about those. Fortnately, beth is still a relatively smaller company, and doesn't have lots of milkable cash cows like activition's cod or ea's various line ups. I guess that's why we can still see these great modable open world RPG, which is a niche genre btw. I'm afraid if beth gets as big as those publishers, beth will also try those very things, milking, to be more profitable and drive the whole franchise into the ground.
Bethesda is owned by Zenimax Media, which is a billion+ dollar company. Don't assume that they're not money grubbers... Bethesda is one of the companies responsible for modern day microtransactions. They sold horse armor as a DLC before a lot of companies had even considered unscrupulous nickel and diming of their customers.