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Well, he was practically betrayed by the Empire (He served them only to have his religion persecuted- sure he and a few of his friends are (ALONE) allowed to worship, but fighting for other's freedom is Religion is pretty selfless), and honestly, as a human actually in that scenario (Not in a comfortable recliner sipping on some coca-cola), he seems pretty reasonable.
The mention of Ulfric being a Thalmor spy is mistaken for the Thalmor igniting the War, which brings me to my other point.
The Thalmor plan is to exhaust Skyrim through a LONG war of attrittion, since only a few deaths won't terribly weaken a Stormcloak Nation's military. A quick and decisive victory by the Stormcloak Rebellion is the best choice because...
The Thalmor invading Skyrim would be like Napoleon's Invasion of Russia.
As far as I've heard, the Stormcloaks use guerilla tactics, and Skyrim's cold enviroment is bitter to foreigners- plus the wildlife and long trade routes- would be a disaster for Thalmor soldiers.
Also, Hammerfell has fought a succsessful rebellion against the Thalmor, and Skyrim *MAY* ally with them.
Finally, since this is one of the most common arguments against Stormcloaks
I do admit that some (No offical percentages as far as I know) Stormcloaks are racist, but back to one of my points, these are people actually in that scenario, and not at a computer desk. I also must point out that the Stormcloaks intentions are not racist, but rather selfless, helping people celebrate their God.
I also must point out that in-game, Stormcloaks tell even other Nords about possible spies.
Plus all the in-game factions are racist in one way or another.
Plus it's a pseudo-medieval world. (Where nobody was really a fan of multi-culturalism)
Plus there's Dark Elves who acknowladge that the only ones in the alleys aren't doing their part, and one Dark Elf character lives in a manor in Windhelm.
Plus 99% of Khajiits you meet are sneak-thieves. (And pretty much all of Skyrim hates them)
PLUS the Argonians in the docks don't even live in Skyrim (They get payed by the Black Briar Mead company)
PLUS overthrowing the Thalmor would cause Nationalism (No outside influince)
And the last Plus: It's Nordic Culture
What did you expect when overthrowing an Empire, cities still being 100% gorgeous?
Also, the murderer has nothing to the Civil War or anything else.
Even more, it's Nordic Culture to live like Warriors, not Merchants.
The duel was fought fairly, and being weaker than your Challenger is no excuse. The king surrendered to the Thalmor, when is was possible to win. (Both sides were heavily depleated, the Legion still could've won)
In conclusion, all the actions from the Stormcloaks are pretty justifialbe in a Real-World scenario, and we have to take into account that all these actions are done by people actually living in this world, and not sitting on their computer chairs reacting to some video game.
EDIT: I am well aware how the Thalmor are (Obviously) rising up again to deliver a finishing blow to the Empire, but the war was over 20 (!) years ago, and the Empire is still in decay. Even if Skyrim fails when independent, it will certainly not be better to stay with the Empire.
The empire isn't going to send all its troops from cyrodill to skyrim, its only gonna send general tullius lol. If the stormcloaks realistically gained independance from the empire their armies would be heavily depleted. The stormcloak rebellion has to take 5 holds away while the imperials only have to take 4.. which are all forts besides windhelm which has old walls and unhappyness within its walls that realistically would side with the empire (dark elves and argonians). Sieging windhelm would not be nearly as difficult as for say sieging solitude realistically.. Youd either have to do an amphibious landing or take dragons bridge which can easily just be destroyed. Rule of thumb.. it's always going to take more troops to siege than be sieged. So the stormcloaks either way have to commit more troops, they'd have to commit from the get-go sieging whiterun. The empire just has to siege some rundown forts in desolate areas of skyrim other than the rift, and you don't even siege riften, you siege some fort outside of it. Then after committing a huge amount of supplies and manpower sieging whiterun, oh.. and.. you have to litterally station troops at whiterun and rebuild it, gl with that too.. with the coffers stormcloaks are boasting, no strong economic positions besides windhelm lol, riftens economic standings in skyrim plummetted after it stopped being a major shipping area. Meanwhile the imperials hold the silver mines and gold mines of the reach, the major shipping port of solitude, the economic crossroads of whiterun. Oh and suitable land for agriculture since imperial holds aren't as desolate, morthal probably being its least developed and least potential (falkreath has a lot of suitable land around it for agriculture and hunting/woodcutting)
Then we get to the siege of solitude realistically.. like i said you'd have to take dragons bridge or do an amphibious landing, which.. in reality.. would have to happen since dragons bridge would probably be destroyed and the town itself sits in a position at the bottom of a hill/cliff making it easier for troops from solitude to just take advantage of it, then we get to actually sieging up the hill to solitude which i'm sure the game would show incorrectly during the stormcloak side (ive never done it). Just running up a hill to solitudes gates would be very costly by itself. Then we finally breach the walls and you have to go through castle dour realistically.. untill you get to the last line of defense at the blue palace. Thats if you go the dragons bridge route, now if you go the amphibious route.. you're probably doomed since already it's known ulfric doesn't have a navy or much of one, the empire does and solitude is a major shipping port with warships.. so you'd have to somehow get a huge amount of troops across the river while they honestly just get obliterated by imperial troops firing on them from ships, or ulfrics like 1 warship is just gonna get sunk probably around dawnstar. Thats not even adding the fact the thalmor have a powerful navy as well. So realistically the stormcloaks manpower is going to be severly depleted and probably to the point where they'd also lose the reach to the forsworn. The major economic cities of skyrim would have to be rebuild too.
Skyrim refused to help hammerfell in their rebellion so theres mistrust there, skyrim would realistically emerage a friendless nation where everyone dislikes them. Thalmor would see skyrim as easy pickings.. no navy, depleted coffers, resources, and manpower.. The empires not gonna want you back either, you cost them unneeded lives and a general, plus tamriels only hope for survival against the thalmor, the relations with morrowind is already strained not adding the fact ulfric hates dark elves or anyone not nord really.
Talos the one they're fighting for was originally the first emporer lol, skyrim is the empire and the empire is skyrim.. the capitol was just placed in cyrodiil. He was still just a man, even if he united most of tamriel he's still just a man, so sacraficing belief in talos for the perserverence of the empire was the right call. The empire was getting wrecked by the thalmor, yes they retook the capitol during the war but the empire was getting defeated heavily on all sides, and the thalmor clearly weren't as depleted as the empire. The empire is struggling just to keep a hold on skyrim and dealing with hammerfell rebellion while the thalmor are gearing up for round two. Would the united empire defeat the thalmor realisticly? maybe, we don't exactly know how the thalmor got such a jump on the empire, or how prepared theyd be this time. Its not gonna matter if the empires busy whacking rebels, united the empire has more of a chance than a fractured tamriel. Windhelm doesn't get sieged untill later lol, if it's been getting raids then whats stopping imperial cities from the same fate? according to you skyrim is capable to defeating the thalmor by itself practically lol so the empire should be ezpz. So why isn't solitude a dump? The high king of skyrim is not the king of the empire btw, the high king only indirectly surrendered, however.. so did every jarl in skyrim in that case. Also ulfric questioned the high kings legitimacy and yet.. torygg was chosen not only by the empire to be high king but ALSO by all the jarls of skyrim, and torygg even said.. he had so much respect for ulfric that he would've sided with him against the empire if he just asked. So yeah.. ulfrics just a power hungry prick lol.
The duel was not fair btw, in skyrim customs the loser isn't killed purposely, ulfric shouted torygg then shoved a sword into him. You realise were debating a video game to begin with, unless you're trying to connect skyrims lore and etc to a real case lol. I however cannot think of a real life case where these conditions are similiar, sure some things maybe.. like i think the closest ive come to connecting them is the kalmar union (union between denmark, sweden, and norway), which was formed basically to defend against the rising german powers in europe, aka.. the holy roman empire and the crusader orders that relocated to the baltic, and the hanseatic league. But the empire was formed before the thalmor rose to power, and what would norway represent in tamriel lol, i think 'skyrim' represents sweden since historically speaking sweden broke away from the kalmer league led by denmark (which i guess represents the empire) Or it could be some weird interpretation of the roman empire, but besides the imperial attire and name nothing really makes me thinkso.. Also the only really snowy regions of the roman empire in a skyrim perspective are the alps lol between the lombardy region of italy and switzerland..
Holy Wall of Text!
But honestly, I do feel that the Stormcloaks have done the best they could for Skyrim, but I still do see some of their flaws. Although I am still confident they can still hold out.
As for Ulfric, he's been a soldier in the Imperial Army, tortured by the Thalmor, and is now a rebel against his former faction, so I'd expect some ruthlessness from him, plus the High King would realistically be a traitor to Skyrim.
I know I haven't answered all of your arguments, but I'm not feeling it at the moment.
Either way Tamriel is pretty much screwed anyways, and it would be a cool sequel to lead a rebellion against the Thalmor.
I agree though a thalmor rebellion would be pretty cool, however i'd rather do it on an imperial side and it involving most of tamriel, not just skyrim. Thats a big part of why i choose the empire, it's bigger than just skyrim.
And yeah, an Empire is basically a conquering faction, but after the Great War, it won't be able to survive with or without Skyrim.
Basically i'm asking you.. is it easier to defeat one enemy or multiple enemies? the empire is comprised of many races including nords from skyrim, they even fought in the great war along side the imperials, when you remove a section of an empire it removes that manpower. Also.. taking huge chunks of land is expensive, war is expensive. you don't just roll in and say 'hi i'm your new king' it doesn't work like that. Towns litterally have to have troops in them to keep order or else chaos will sprout indefinitely, why do you think the thalmor haven't conquered the empire yet? it'd be way too expensive to manage it and send troops all over the place to keep order and keep down the rebellions. With skyrim the empire has some chance and so does tamriel, without it the empire is doomed indefinitely. Like saying we should give up on having kids because the literal chances of fertilization is low, but it happens.
Thalmor nor the Empire couldn't put down Hammerfell, I doubt they'd be able to put down Skyrim
But yeah, you're bringing up pretty reasonable points about Skyrim being a crappy nation, but if Skyrim can overthrow a (Crumbling) Empire with a decisive victory, then their warriors are decent, and the winter would probably kill off many of the Thalmor
But honestly, I don't know the point of arguing. Yes, Skyrim can become independent (With Solitude the only city left it's probably not going to be manned enough for MASSIVE casualties), but the question lies on HOW strong the Thalmor are really.
Plus the Empire, even if united, will not be able to defeat the Thalmor, since their army is pretty much rekt after the War.
Skyrim alone is also gonna be pretty crappy, but they should be able to ally themselves with Hammerfell (Similiar in size and both have Warrior cultures, and Hammerfell has successfully repelled a Thalmor Invasion).
(Yes Skyrim didn't help, but that's because they were still part of the Empire at that time, and Nords don't seem to be racist torwards their race.)
Maybe if everyone in Skyrim became a stealth archer they could defeat the Thalmor easily