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With the three core Ascensions, there are summons that can do more than an Exalt ever could, so which Cult you pick is inconsequential. The only thing that matters is which Exalt you find most useful.
For the Dancer Ascensions, your Cult only matters for expeditions. Moth can clear a few expeditions solo, but that advantage is so slight as to be borderline non-existent.
For Priest, it really doesn't matter at all, as you'll have more Exalts than you'll know what to do with.
For Medium, there is a reasonable advantage to Winter Cults when starting out, but for actually winning it doesn't really matter there either.
If you haven't won before (from 'decent shot at winning' I'm assuming you haven't), I'd avoid Hydra/Secret Histories. It's a favorite of people who know the game, since it gets you Disciples faster than any other Cult, but it can't get Exalts at all, so it's not so good for learning.
Knock and Lantern are maybe somewhat less useful than most. Edge, Winter, and Heart can make Hunters a non-issue in various ways. Edge is the most straightforward with that, Heart is the least, but they're all useful. Grail and, to a lesser extent, Edge can make a certain phase of Enlightenment and Sensation victories easier. Moth is probably my favorite, but it doesn't actually get any better at its primary job when you Exalt them; the main advantage is the expeditions I mentioned.
Ultimately, it's a matter of play style, though even this is fairly minor, or preferred flavor or themes. Every cult can do everything (except for the way Hydra promotes and its lack of Exalts). Some just do something slightly better than the others.
That was another thing I was wondering about: cult specific summons. My cult didn't get far enough for it to be an issue. But for example is King Crucible only/primarily available to the Unflinching Order? Likewise, Ezeem and the Bloody Cup? Maids for Children of Silence? Etc.
I read on the wiki as well that Latern wasn't as strong as most choices. Which is a bit funny, it seems like for a new player, the game very lightly steers you toward enlightenment - lantern.
The only difference between Cults is which Cultists (the ones with matching Aspect) you can promote to the highest level and the flavor associated with the Cult and its promotions. With the exception of Secret Histories/St Hydra, who cannot promote anyone to the highest level, but they can promote with any Lore, making them great for people who know the game and want to speed through it.
Lantern's Cult Business that Followers can perform is very underwhelming, so having a Lantern Follower at the highest level doesn't do much for you there. It's still useful for Expeditions. Knock's Cult Business effectively does the same thing as several others. Knock is most useful for Summons, and no Summon needs a Knock Exalt. A Disciple covers all your bases there.
If you aren't interested in having more mechanical specifics covered, I advise against reading further:
For the most part, with a couple exceptions, your choice of Cult is the difference between 70% success rate at Cult Business and Expeditions and 90% success rate at Cult Business and Expeditions. In the case of Expeditions, you can just use a second Follower to get that 90%, so that's how little Cult choice matters.
Exceptions are: Edge Exalts get 100% chance at murdering a target (unless they have an Aspect that gives them a chance of survival), and Moth Exalts have the same 70% chance of success at Cult Business as Disciples.
So again, to reiterate: barring the mentioned exceptions of Edge, Moth, and Secret Histories, your choice of Cult is a difference of 20% odds. It's really not a big deal at all. Just pick whichever you think is most neat.