Insight into the Growth Stone price rise

[Ducky Momo]

Hello.

We have recently seen a Growth Stone price rise of almost 400% in the last 72 hours in the server and I wanted to show some insight as to how and why this phenomenon happened. While the most basic argument can be summed up as "supply and demand", there are various factors that has contributed to such a phenomenon.

1) Growth Stone and Feso is a consumable. Due to its nature, there is no real permanent supply of Growth Stones in the market and, thus, it is an extremely non-sustainable resource for the players. The same can be said for the Vis, the in-game currency, however, the Vis can be earned through in-game means while the Feso can only be attained through very rare drops in certain areas, roulettes, or achievements in small quantities.

2) The Feso is actually a form of premium currency. However, due to being acquirable in-game, it is mostly a pseudo-premium currency with over 95% of its supply coming from the premium market.

3) Feso is a part of the progression system. This mostly means La Atencion and Ancient Area passes which are big parts of the progression system in Granado Espada. While most of the other items in the Feso shop are convenience items, there is no other option to be able to get these things outside of a large grind or the Feso shop itself.

4) iCash limits have affected the supply. Normally, people who want Feso for a lower price than the market have the option to buy the Heaven Treasure Book from the iCash store. However, due to the iCash limits that have been place on Steam accounts by imc, this is no longer possible.

5) The limited supply is hoarded. This is actually a valid reason why the prices of the Growth Stones are high. Usual small supply of Growth Stones that are sold at low prices are immediately bought and hoarded by high sellers. This is actually comparable to the telecom services in the USA and their monopolies in areas for their service in which they block or buy out any other business that offers any prices against them and that the little "competition" in their circle has an agreement to not interfere with the area of one telecom business and another.

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With these in mind, why is the Feso price going through the roof? It's not simply because of iCash limits, or hoarding but a mix of all of these.

Due to the nature of the Feso as a pseudo-premium currency and due to the fact that it plays a big part in convenience and progression, it is sought after by almost every player in the game. While the Feso can hardly be earned through normal in-game means, there is normally a little problem due to the lack of supply because it can be bought through the iCash shop. However, due to the iCash limits(being mostly spent on Lyndon Boxes), and scroll, gear, etc. trading and the overall consumable nature of the Feso, its supply has dwindled to a small amount of people being able to buy iCash monthly. This limited supply is further cut by anyone hoarding/monopolizing the Feso market by buying Growth Stones en masse, through in-game or the iCash shop, and holding that supply to force the price to rise before selling, and buying out the smaller competition.

Is this a legitimate business tactic? Yes, definitely. It's one of the ways that bigger companies, such as those in the telecom example, are so large in the USA.

Is this ethical? Debatable.

This is actually quite similar to the "Mystic Coin" economy of Guild Wars 2 in which the "Mystic Coin" was hoarded and the lack of in-game means to get them outside of weekly log-ins have forced the price to go quite high. The developer's response to this was that "Players are hoarding Mystic Coins and that the supply is actually there." However, the main difference between us and Guild Wars 2 is that the hoarded items, in our case Growth Stones, are ACTUALLY returned to the market but a higher mark up while those in Guild Wars 2 are left in abandoned accounts and never returned. This paradox alongside a philosophy of greed has left the price of Growth Stones to rise.
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So what can be done to alleviate this Feso mark-up before it goes into uncharted territory? There are various ways to be able to go around these and maybe there are more to be listed but the ones that easily come to mind are:

1) Removal of the iCash limit. While the removal of the iCash limit per month is the easiest way to solve this problem, I, personally, do not think this is a good idea due to the fact that I am actually in favor of the iCash restrictions to prevent RMT-related depreciation of the Vis, etc. However, a median approach may be done and that the monthly limit be refreshed every 15 days and, thus, allow people to buy more iCash items which include the Heaven's Treasure Book for Feso.

2) Make items in the Feso shop to be available in Vis. Duplicating some items in the Feso shop to be made available in Vis will help depreciate the Feso outside of niche items and put pricing "guidelines" for the ratio of Vis-Feso. However, this may not be applicable to all items in the Feso shop as, in my opinion, Feso was meant to be kept a pseudo-premium currency and that the developers would like to keep it that way.

3) Make Feso more accessible by play the game. ie. drops, rewards, roulettes, etc. This is probably the most consumer-friendly way to alleviate the Feso mark-up. Giving roulettes and all monsters a chance to drop Sun, Moon, and <even if very rarely> Growth Stones, would ACTUALLY help the price of Feso to depreciate to more accessible values.

For this third option, Ruan has suggested this[steamcommunity.com] although I, personally, would prefer something like this.[steamcommunity.com]
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All in all, I hope that imc is watching the in-game market, its figures, and its analytics, and be able to find an actual healthy way of helping the players of this server with the Feso mark-up. This is especially true as such an unhealthy phenomenon happening at less than a month after server launch may put off consumers and slowly turn the game into a ghost town that it was when it was under IAH.

<also I still hope they give the Barons a new, PvE-inclined stance>

[Daydream]

Hey IMC you really going to ignore this? You IAH 2.0

[alecman3000]

Първоначално публикувано от Ducky Momo:

Първоначално публикувано от ambo22:

Inflation.

Indeed it does play a part but to what extent I can't fully say. Not including this seems to be an oversight on my part(and I don't know why I actually didn't include it in the first place).

EDIT:

Although I'm not quite sure how big the part Vis inflation adds to the overall Feso mark-up especially since the Feso mark-up began before the 100k Vis event. Of course, there's also that the sharp price increase happened AFTER the 100k Vis event so it may actually be a bigger factor than I'd first expected.

Inflation is, of course, expected as a game grows older.

I actually want to find the division of the factors that contributed to the Feso mark-up as I think the way to solve this problem lies there.

Първоначално публикувано от alecman3k:

how much feso do you get from heaven's treasure book

It gives 10 Growth Stones per book used with a chance for more items, such as 2-3 Growth Stones, Socket Tranquilizers, pet boxes, Rare Character Card box.

Hey man Growth stone prices are going down again, now down to up to 2m. this is probably due to the upcoming event they're doing with the letizia boxes, more people will be buying more boxes and will increase the growth stone resource in the market. I saved up quite a lot of Growth stone right now and my question is, should I start selling them before they go down to their lowest price again? Or should I wait till the event ends? do you think the prices will go up again once the event ends? It's kinda hard for me to predict what's gonna happen if once they bring lyndon's boxes again. Thanks!

[Ducky Momo]

Първоначално публикувано от alecman3k:

Growth Stone

I'm not an economics expert so you should take my advice with a grain of salt.

With the reset impending and Letizia Feso containing good items, there would be a good flood of Feso in the market so it will almost assuredly inflate the Feso. On top of that, the 100k roulette is going away which means people will have less access to Vis. Feso inflation and Vis appreciation will result into a limit of Feso. Also, it's very likely that people have learned their lesson from the Feso mark-up to 3.8-4.5m per 100k and would likely save their own stashes of Feso for themselves. Depending on the content of the Lyndon Box, and how many people have had their iCash limit restriction removed, people may spam that over Letizia thus losing Feso and somewhat appreciating it but you will have to wait for the middle of the month before that happens. As of now, you might as well just hold on to your Growth Stones since it is a no-win situation for Growth Stone sellers right now.

[Chii]

To prevent hoarders...just make sure a player can only hold x amount of growstones and moon-stones and sunstones in their inventory...this should help alleviate and even out the playing field...also will generate more players/new players into new sge population.

[Ducky Momo]

Първоначално публикувано от Chii:

To prevent hoarders...just make sure a player can only hold x amount of growstones and moon-stones and sunstones in their inventory...this should help alleviate and even out the playing field...also will generate more players/new players into new sge population.

Your suggestion makes no sense to me at all. There is no reason to make players be able to hold only an x amount of currency -- that is similar to punishing people for playing their game. This is very reason Elemental Jewels and the like have become actual currency -- because of the Vis limit -- and suggesting something akin to this for Feso/Feso Stones would just make it change its trading form.

There is also no relation as to how this method will help generate or retain players.

[alecman3000]

Първоначално публикувано от Ducky Momo:

Първоначално публикувано от alecman3k:

Growth Stone

I'm not an economics expert so you should take my advice with a grain of salt.

With the reset impending and Letizia Feso containing good items, there would be a good flood of Feso in the market so it will almost assuredly inflate the Feso. On top of that, the 100k roulette is going away which means people will have less access to Vis. Feso inflation and Vis appreciation will result into a limit of Feso. Also, it's very likely that people have learned their lesson from the Feso mark-up to 3.8-4.5m per 100k and would likely save their own stashes of Feso for themselves. Depending on the content of the Lyndon Box, and how many people have had their iCash limit restriction removed, people may spam that over Letizia thus losing Feso and somewhat appreciating it but you will have to wait for the middle of the month before that happens. As of now, you might as well just hold on to your Growth Stones since it is a no-win situation for Growth Stone sellers right now.

that actually makes sense, I almost rushed into selling them as they started to go down in price. I'm glad i didn't. Thank you for the advice and I'll do my own observation on what's going in with the market once the event happens.

[A lonely dragon]

Първоначално публикувано от Arvs:

IMC is quiet about the issue. But with issues related to iCash not being credited they are replying almost instantaneously! BUT WITH THESE ISSUES, THEY ARE JUST IGNORING!

dude.. they only got urgency on money issues..