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It can depend on a lot of things too, and i suspect Diplomacy having a much higher influence on AI growth and expansion than players would expect. A snowballing AI player can expand to the point where it cannot be stopped from winning in the end. Rarely since an experienced Civ or strategy game player will more than often pulverize the AI, but i have seen it a few times. Again, it depends on the situation.
On standard speed it can literally be about 200 turns in before the Ai thinks "okay, my army is big enough, and ive built all these buildings now, time to expand". Kind of like how the civs do in civ 5. There is always a big late game settlement explosion when they get over whatever hurdle was keeping them back.
Dont forget though, especially on higher difficulties, 3 cities is MORE than enough to win any condition. With spies and the power of airforce, city quantity is not a vital factor like it was in civ5. Just my thoughts.