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Stamina is needed to win.
Take advantge of the heat waves and train at the dojo to get stamina quickly.
300, 500, 750, 999 are needed to win in each one of them.
New Year's Party
Elegance above 300 in the first festival, 500 in the second festival, then 750 in the third, and 999 in the last festival are needed to win.
Cherry Blossom Festival
Charm above 300 needed in the first festival, and again, 500, 750 and then 999.
Items like bouquet of flowers can help here.
I got these from the Japanese wiki. Good luck!
Harvest Festival - October
New Year's Party - January
Cherry Blossom Festival - April
But on first year only Harvest Festival and New Year's Party happened. I tried to start in February, but still no Cherry Blossom. I tried to start in Summer, waited whole year, but still no Cherry Blossom!
I wonder if they are buggy in this release or were truly only intended to be on certain years or what?
Edited to say thanks to @abreiramar for the stats. I could not figure out the healthy one for the life of me. I was doing vitality instead :(
10 years old: Harvest Festival and New Year's Party
11 years old: Cherry Blossom Festival
12 years old: Harvest Festival and New Year's Party
ect.
So there are 4 of each during the walkthrough.
Also 300-500-700-999 is not totally true.
Here are some things I tested:
1) Cherry Blossom Festival is always 500 stat difficult on the second year
2) Harvest Festival can be either 300 or 500, if you start the game just before it (July/August) - then it will be 300. If you want to give yourself more time to get ready and start on February it'll be 500.
I guess there is a special month where you enemies become better, but it's not just 1-2-3-4 festival.
I'm trying to get a game where I win as many festivals as possible. Let's see how it could work!
The wiki page also states that you should "aim around" those numbers (300, 500 etc). Abeiramar didn't translate enough =p
The Elegance/Charm events are much tougher to aim at since you can't "cheat" on the Stamina one. With the Elegance/Charm, you should raise stats with events / gifts / merchant clothes for easy win (which requires lots of money etc) besides classes.
RNG + Gotta exceed rival stats = Reload if you have to -_-
If you can't seem to win over the rival after 5-6 reload, I just assume my stats were lower than her rival and it's no point re-loading.
Thank you very much for correcting me! My Japanese is still baby-level.
The heat waves also seem random... In some 1st years I get them and others don't. Harvest Festival always happens in the first year for me though.
Thanks for all the tips!
Started as Knight, on the last day on July.
== 10 years old ==
Day1: Eat all the food I can buy, eat more my little girl!
August&September - work on farm, you have VIT and Stamina for that!
Last day of September - more food! 300 Stamina reached.
Festival - win!
Festival on January - sadly we cannot win, skipped.
Still send her to Etiquette school - best Elegance and Charm boost. When you are out of money - work on farm.
== 11 years old ==
Stamina: 326
Elegence: 447
Charm: 187
More farm, more etiquette!
There will be Charm festival we cannot win yet.
== 12 years old ==
Stamina: 402
Elegence: 468
Charm: 208
It was mostly about making money and getting some Morality (be careful when you push stamina to the limit!)
Before Harvest push stamina to 500. Win
Then push Elegence with more Etiquette. Also win.
== 13 years old ==
We have lots of money you won. When time comes for Charm festival push Charm with every coin you have, but use dancing/orc before it, as pushing with flowers is the most expensive way.
You should be able to win all the other festivals after that point with little trouble.
Harvest wins 4/4
New year wins 3/4
Charm wins 3/4
Also, the easiest way to up Stamina is to save before summer and keep reloading until you get a heat wave, then spend the entire summer at the dojo.
Btw do you like PM3 system? Personally I like PM2/PM4 festivals more, where all the different stuff happened in the same time, and you can train your girl in different ways to win something.