How does crafting RNG even work?

[Martenzo]

I've been trying to make Medium Armor and gathering tools for my people using Dazzling Leather (a Wild resource), and I'm getting way, way more trash quality items than the crafting menu suggests I should be. I have a 28% chance of a high quality item, 22% chance of trash quality. So out of 10 items, I'd expect 2 or 3 high quality, 2 or 3 trash quality and 8, 7 or 6 normal quality items. Instead, after crafting 5 armor and 5 gathering tools, I've ended up with 5 Trash armor, 4 Trash gathering tools and 1 normal Gathering tool.

Which begs the question, how does that RNG even work?

[DG]

The same way that random numbers always work - a random sample will have long streaks and often not be 'average'. If samples were always 'average' and evenly distributed then it probably wouldn't be genuinely random numbers.

As a tip, I'd say to gather to the basic and neat resources as they are usually lighter and have less failures. Combine the wild resources you find with the basic or neat. Give your crafter some good tools and a ring with +smithing if you can.

[Lorska]

Two things:
1) you may look at the chances while you have a buff to crafting, so if that runs out it can be a lot worse, especially if you are using wild materials

2) trash chance always supercedes other chances. This means trash chance is in fact the only accurate number there, e.g. if you have 50% masterwork and 50% trash chance, your actual masterwork chance is 25%, normal chance is 25%, trash chance is in fact 50%

[Nordil(Hun)]

Originally posted by Lorska:

Two things:
1) you may look at the chances while you have a buff to crafting, so if that runs out it can be a lot worse, especially if you are using wild materials

2) trash chance always supercedes other chances. This means trash chance is in fact the only accurate number there, e.g. if you have 50% masterwork and 50% trash chance, your actual masterwork chance is 25%, normal chance is 25%, trash chance is in fact 50%

With some gear and buildings you can really buff up a character's smithing for instance.(Not to mention if he is a dwarven smith)

[Martenzo]

Originally posted by Lorska:

Two things:
1) you may look at the chances while you have a buff to crafting, so if that runs out it can be a lot worse, especially if you are using wild materials

2) trash chance always supercedes other chances. This means trash chance is in fact the only accurate number there, e.g. if you have 50% masterwork and 50% trash chance, your actual masterwork chance is 25%, normal chance is 25%, trash chance is in fact 50%

#2 probably explains it then, if the trash roll and masterwork roll are two separate rolls, instead of being the upper and lower end of the same roll. My craftsman had 85.6 Crafting, and the only bonus that could go away was Perfect Morale. But thinking about it a bit more, I should probably send my expedition team out for more science from encounters and get the final two crafting buildings. And possibly unlock Alchemy Skin to convert my massive Enchanted Leather stockpiles to craft an endgame crafting tool for my craftsman.