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It's actually just the same population chance script that the cabbage patch and stork events use.
Thanks for looking into it. I'm not familiar with really any of the scripts in detail. But it sounds like the actual chance for the second recruit occurs within the initial recruitment encounter.
So, basically, if you don't get a second Dwarf or Elf when you recruit the first one, there isn't a point in checking back later for a timer to elapse or anything of that nature.
What is the Cabbage Patch and Stork population script based on? Individual group size? You could just keep branching off groups to spawn more and more dudes? I always seem to have more population growth when I get my second village running. Like to the point where the game because tedious in managing all the gear and characters.
The population script chance is based on the total number of character you have across the whole game world minus the characters you started with. So have for example, 20 characters, if you keep them in one giant group you have the same chance for the script to trigger as if you split them up into 20 different single person groups.
Some events that give characters aren't determined by the population script so this could be how you end up with so many but without seeing your game and knowing how many you have and how you obtained each character I can't tell you if this was a population script thing or just a random event thing.
I went into the Module Editor after about 20 loads on seeing what the options would be with a Dwarf Recruit and hitting -nothing-, with the exception of the rare instance of being able to recruit a Dwarf Smith instead of a Young Dwarf Smith. Some potential spoilers.
So to orient myself, I checked out a module I already know is working: the Orcs.
From my limited understanding, it doesn't even appear to check population. If you beat the fighting pit, there is a module where you get the Slugger, and there seems to be a 20% for a Orc Child with the Slugger, along with the stat maluses applied to the Slugger. After that, the player is tagged with a OrcRec (Orc Recruitment) tag of 2.
If you buy a child from the Orcs, or buy a Slugger, you're stuck with a OrcRec tag of 1 instead of 2, and malsues are applied to the Slugger. If you have OrcRec 1, you open options to recruit a Blood Tracker, and will set your OrcRec to 2, and set maluses on the Tracker you buy, though I imagine there is a time frame between when you can buy the Tracker and your first recruit, I can't find it. I don't even see a reference to FRA_PopulationChance on the Orc Events.
On to the Elves, there are two references to FRA_PopulationChance to qualify for a Guardian and a Banished Druid. Neither of these recruits tag you, or seem to check tags like the Orc Bloodtracker.
IF you recruit a Elven Gatherer or Craftsman, you are tagged to ElfRec 1, BUT seem to get a 10% chance for an Elf Child with either Gatherers or Craftsman. If you buy a Elf Child, you get a bear, and your ElfRec is 1. So the Elf Child is arguably the worst possible deal if you're willing to do some loading.
Here is where things kinda piss me off. Dwarf Apprentice has no FRA_PopulationChance references I can find. There are also no additional chances on any recruits for a Dwarf Child. You want a Laborer? You are checked if you have DwarfRec 1, you don't, you buy a Laborer, you get DwarfRec 1, end. You want a child? Tag checked, buy it, get it and Dwarf Rec1.
Dwarf Smith is the only thing that has any slight variation, and it has a 10% Chance, not PopulationChance, but just standard Chance, to offer you a Standard Smith over a Young Smith, and both offer no additional recruitment chances, and set your Rec Tag to 1.
So as far as I can tell for Dwarfs, that line about "a small chance" is a load of baloney. You get A Dwarf, and that is -it-. No mas.