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In which patch?
Some of the other misses could possibly be down to if you're shooting at someone in melee or someone spamming melee wierdness, a shot can seem to go right through them. Enemys jumping will also seem to cause shots to pass right through ( which is probably why you see these things done so much )
Ideally shooting should be tightened back up as its been slowly degrading since melee had its big patch, in fact just after that patch it collapsed altogether, and though it was more or less hotfixed it never really got back to what it was, and if anything got increasingly unreliable as time went on.
And close shots are more of a gamble within 20m because people do the crazy melee stupidity where they look up and crouch and jump and spin. When their body fills the reticule is the best time to fire. After that, switch to melee.
Only if you don't aim. It's all in my previous post. Limiting your movement before you shoot, crouching, and taking longer to aim make you more accurate. It's not just RNG.
Personally I think there's things that can be done to help, but that's up to the DEVs.
All i can suggest is keep at it, and practice longer ranged shots too, with longer ranged shots though try to adjust for elevation, and also if possible to lead your shot, this will come with practice and when you get the hang of it will alleviate a lot of your frustration.
Trust me, shooting a jumping Cilawyn out of the air when he's at the top of his jump at a time when his team has run out of reinforcements is its own reward.
By that I mean a couple of things.
Firstly every weapon type has an inherent bullet drop over distance, if you get the hang of that drop you give your bullet a much better chance to hit the target. This is because of the other RNG mechanic, which is best thought of as a separate entity.
The Second RNG mechanic applies a random swing to your bullet, but crucially it has more potential swing to the left or right than up or down. This is what makes elevation such a vital key to hitting an intended target at distance, because if elevation is way off you literally have no chance of hitting them ( though you could hit some other poor sap by mistake ).
Lastly your RNG component isn't going to wildly kick in every time you fire, so the better your aim is on a stationary target the higher your odds become that you'll hit it.
A couple of things to note, you are going to get runs of misses along with runs of hits no matter how good your aim is, this is RNG in action so no sense in beating yourself up about something that is basically out of your control, all you can do is work on your aim and let RNG sort itself out.
Though you can assist yourself by aiming at clumps of players whenever possible, miss the player you're aiming at, no problem, because you might possibly hit the guy to his left or right. Again crucially, elevation is key as you wouldn't have a chance of hitting any of that bunch if your shot is falling 20 metres short.
You could help improve your aim by using the games dot cursor, or if you like by putting a dot in the dot part of your screen with a NONpermanent marker since the games standard white dot is super hard to see on a snowy map.
Try to see where your shots land if you can ( watch for a puff of smoke ) this can be hard to see in an intense fight but will slowly give you a sense over time of required elevation in regards to distance ( it's just something that comes naturally with gameplay when you're looking out for it )
If you have to shoot at a moving target, and lets face it eventually you will, then try to practice aiming a little ahead of them. This is actually pretty tricky to judge but at least a dot will help you with that.
Above all don't allow yourself to get frustrated, and just enjoy the game warts and all :)
Following up what Ikthalion said. You definitely can practice and get better. If RNG is totally random then why do experienced players get consistently higher scores than new players ? It's because they've figured out the range and how that relates to their reticule and they aim at clumps of players whenever they get the chance (I know this has already been mentioned but it really is the easiest way to start getting kills). Practice those things first. And every now and then take a speculative shot at a single moving target and watch for the little puff of earth/sand that is thrown up when you miss. This will tell you how much you missed by. Use this information to adjust your next shot. With practice you can hit a single moving target mid bunny hop, not every time, but it is a musket (or simulated one anyway). Kneeling helps. And I believe pausing helps ie if you have a stationary target, line him up and hold for a fraction of a second before you fire.
I also suspect that just because RNG moves the musket ball left or right, doesn't mean you miss. I feel like if you have the enemy lined up perfectly ie dead centre you will often still score a hit even if the RNG moves the ball a shade to the right (or left) I'm not certain this is a thing but it sure feels like it is.
I can rack up 10 kills fairly easily. 10 - 20 if I'm really on it. I position myself carefully when looking for enemies to shoot (the flanks are favourite but not necessarily essential). I look for clumps. I kneel. I take my time with shots. And most importantly I don't stand close to allies. If they come stand close to me I move since I don't wanna be part of the clump some other guy is aiming at.
One more tip re clumps. I've often been caught on a flank when a mass enemy charge comes. Me and two other guys V what looks like the entire enemy army. Many people turn and run, I never do. Not because I'm brave (I mean it aint real anyway) but because the way I see it the enemy are bringing 3 or 4 easy kills right to me. Maybe more if I get a lucky bayonet run in. Getting charged by superior numbers is a gift, never turn your back on it ; )
I joined a squadron a while ago and we had our own test server. At about 90m the shot starts dropping and the left/right RNG plays more of a factor, but it's still a predictable amount of variance and in a line battle you'll still hit if you aim for the middle with the right elevation. You'll hit a stationary target at 70m 90% of the time if you use proper aiming technique. At 50m it's a guaranteed hit. At 20m the accuracy starts going back down because you have to move your weapon more before the shot, since we assume a 20m target isn't stationary anymore. But if the target runs straight at you, they die unless lag happens so long as you pause long enough before shooting.
Think of the pause as like what archers do before they take a shot. They line it up, draw the bow, take a breath, then fire. That's what you need to do to make the musket more accurate.
It's not a great quality video though and I don't use a reticule, which on reflection I should have tried to add post processing as it's really hard to see the dot, especially as the video quality isn't that great.
I did try highlighting bush lurkers post process but unfortunately it never entered my head that I would also be able to add an easy to see cursor overlay :(
https://youtu.be/pAIAZ9j3R_A
https://youtu.be/x0mVzNfe810
Also the bullet drop is especially brutal on a pistol, far more than you'd experience with a musket or rifle, so if you use those weapons don't elevate anywhere near that much on some of those longer ranged shots.
But hopefully it will be helpful for you to at least be able to see the concepts of elevation and shot leading even if it is the wrong weapon type for you. That way you can begin to experiment and learn the dynamics involved in shooting your weapon of choice.
Again I apologise for the poor quality of the video and the lack of a reticule for ease of reference.