chances of failing rush too great

[venomtail]

without fail 3 power room rushes, each at 27%, 37% 47% 57% and 67% each times, for all 3 rooms. Might as well get a lottery ticket with these unlucky chances I get.

The chances of that happening should be very low but that's like the daily results.
Anyone have different results when rushing rooms? Or all the same? Seems kinda rigged...

[kwil]

Just bad luck. I've done plenty of testing of the success rate myself and out of a hundred tries, the results averaged to just about where it says it should.

[listless]

It does feel a bit off sometimes. Rushing with a 37% chance of failure shouldn't feel like I'm risking a 67% chance of failure, but it does.

[St3amfails]

any time you are worried about feel rather than actual documented numbers, you are obviously wrong

[KaosReigns]

OP is right, I have now done about 10 rushes, with it flucuating betwenn 79 and 92 and NONE worked. not 1. thats less than a 1 in 10 chance, when it should be at least 20% So yeah, completely garbage math being used in this game.

Dont bother giving me the "Bad luck" crap either.

11 now btw. I said screw it, and im tracking the progress, I will make a new thread with the success/fails after, with the %chance of success/fail rate.

[kwil]

Since my vault is still set up specifically for collecting data, here's another batch of 100 I did while making dinner. All rooms used were between 30 and 35 percent success rate. Results are as expected, of course. Even a little more perfect than I expected. Now, is it possible there are hidden variables that can cause a different result? Unlikely, but sure. All I know is my stats are accurate as hell. o's represent successes and x's represent failure.

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[boRZ]

I feel like the game doesn't want you to rush the same type of rooms over and over again i.e power room after power room, for a good reason. Rush food rooms, wait, and then rush different power rooms using Dwellers with High 'Luck' in those rooms instead. Also rush risk is different based on difficulty such as in survival I believe. And not using rush too frequently is part of the game.

[KaosReigns]

Originally posted by Borz DSPU:

I feel like the game doesn't want you to rush the same type of rooms over and over again i.e power room after power room, for a good reason. Rush food rooms, wait, and then rush different power rooms using Dwellers with High 'Luck' in those rooms instead. Also rush risk is different based on difficulty such as in survival I believe. And not using rush too frequently is part of the game.

Which is fine, but they need to change it from a % based chance then. I am not against a different more proper way of showing how it really is, its just pure BS for people to try and say this isnt rigged.

50% is 50%. With some margin of error, but when you get 25/100, and people try to argue saying thats just bad luck, NO, that is 25%..... half of what was stated..... So when people use the "bad luck" argument, its super annoying lol (Not saying you are doing that, but others do all the time)

Apply the same logic they are trying to use to justify troop loss in a military exercise for example. I believe acceptable loss is 10%, I could be wrong though. Point is, 1000 troops, means if 100 is lost, you pull back. Not, 250, because bad luck was involved.

The difference is overlord RNG vs real RNG. Which isnt even a debate, so I have no idea why people always try to argue luck being involved, when there is a governing system deciding your luck.....

Originally posted by kwil:

Since my vault is still set up specifically for collecting data, here's another batch of 100 I did while making dinner. All rooms used were between 30 and 35 percent success rate. Results are as expected, of course. Even a little more perfect than I expected. Now, is it possible there are hidden variables that can cause a different result? Unlikely, but sure. All I know is my stats are accurate as hell. o's represent successes and x's represent failure.

Do it again at 50% then. You should end with 40-60 success. You wont. I will be surprised if you get 30.

[St3amfails]

amazing how many people have no idea how sample size works...if u use a tiny sample size the variance of your results will be high, constantly getting closer to exact expected results as you get closer to a reasonable sample size...but hey, you do you. the tinfoil hat covers up the obvious lack of brains

[venomtail]

Did the same as Kwil and tried rushing again as I needed stims fast.

2 stim rooms and rushing went as follows.
14% - Success
24% - Fail
34% - Fail
44% - Fail
54% - Fail
64% - Fail
19% - Fail
29% - Fail
39% - Fail
49% - Fail
59% - Fail
69% - Fail

WIll try this out with lets say 6 stim rooms but with 2 it's already smelling fishy. Never even once have I have a room Succeed with fail rate above 60%. Maybe the whole things of XCOM games where success % are all fake to the player and real in game chances are much lower...

[Lost_Agent]

The funny thing is I have a 2/3 success rate

[Carinth]

If your settlers in a room have low luck, poor happiness or are wrongly assigned, you're more likely to have fails.
Settlers that are happy, properly assigned and have higher luck will succeed more.
Though luck isn't as important as the other two, but does factor in.

You can actually test it by moving the settlers in and out of rooms and then seeing what the rush ratio is. The ratio% goes down with the above additions and goes up if you place the wrong settler in the room. Say 40% rush with the placed settler, then you switch them and it becomes 38%, that's an indication that you have placed the right settler in the room. If you add one and it goes up say 40% to 42% that means you just placed someone in the room that should be assigned in another room.

One other way to check if a settler is properly assigned is their happiness will goto 75% when assigned to a room they like. So if you have a settler or a child that becomes an adult, when you place them check the happiness. If they have under 75 happiness when you place them and it goes up to 75 without any rushes or anything that also indicates the settlers in the proper room assigned and that they are happy.

One last thing, sometimes it can just be the settlers don't work well together. But using the above methods like the rush check will also help determine that.

All this has bearing on the success of your rushes.

[KaosReigns]

Originally posted by Carinth:

If your settlers in a room have low luck, poor happiness or are wrongly assigned, you're more likely to have fails.
Settlers that are happy, properly assigned and have higher luck will succeed more.
Though luck isn't as important as the other two, but does factor in.

You can actually test it by moving the settlers in and out of rooms and then seeing what the rush ratio is. The ratio% goes down with the above additions and goes up if you place the wrong settler in the room. Say 40% rush with the placed settler, then you switch them and it becomes 38%, that's an indication that you have placed the right settler in the room. If you add one and it goes up say 40% to 42% that means you just placed someone in the room that should be assigned in another room.

One other way to check if a settler is properly assigned is their happiness will goto 75% when assigned to a room they like. So if you have a settler or a child that becomes an adult, when you place them check the happiness. If they have under 75 happiness when you place them and it goes up to 75 without any rushes or anything that also indicates the settlers in the proper room assigned and that they are happy.

One last thing, sometimes it can just be the settlers don't work well together. But using the above methods like the rush check will also help determine that.

All this has bearing on the success of your rushes.

This is the problem though, nobody is arguing that the stats add or remove %. The argument is the shown % is an absolute lie.

"What weighs more, 1lb of feathers or 1lb of metal"?

The above question is whats basically going on here, people arent understanding the real problem, so they are giving a bad answer.

A pound is a pound, so if you said metal, sorry, you dumb

[Carinth]

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/1783982688587440841/99064A64A430596B2FBF8F0CE31AEFAD87AA2DEA/?imw=2560&&ima=fit&impolicy=Letterbox&imcolor=%23000000&letterbox=false