Rush Rigged?

[GoD GoG GleGeeGiN]

Is rush just rigged or am i just unlucky, just did 8 rushes on three different rooms and they were all lower than 50% but they all failed anyway!

[meheezen]

Someone did some experiments not long ago with variable success rates ans came to the conclusion these percentages are pretty much BS. You will fail way more than these numbers predicts.

[Akatosh]

Yeah I miss a lot too, event with 15% chance of failure. I'm often unlucky during games but this is epic ...

[kwil]

Just bad luck/your brain remembering failures more prominantly than successes. My recorded test rates have always averaged out to right where they should be.

[gareeth]

In random probability the expected outcome is evident in larger samples typically. Like if you flip a coin twice while you have a 50 percent chance of getting tails each time in two flips you could easily wind up with 2 heads.

Although kwhero is also right as far as successes making a larger impression on your brain.

Odds are it's not rigged and if you keep track for long enough you should have about as many successes as it promises. Although at higher levels when the cost of failure contains some pretty hard on dweller incidents I don't rush with a probabilty higher than 33 percents and I know my brain feels like every rush caused mole rats since they arrived before I had much endurance or endurance wear in a shelter.

That's not true though but the whole needing stim packs because the weapon luck was also skewed in that vault and having some guy who was training endurance next door die means I fear the rush despite that being a one time horrible outcome I remember it more vividly.

Math is fair but your brain is wired to make it easy to forget and it doesn't help that some things about probability must be counter-intutitive to a lot of people.

[GoD GoG GleGeeGiN]

I guess that's fair but it still bothers me that 8 rushes were under 50% and that they all fail. And not only that but when it happens every time i do 8 rushes i find it rather hard to believe it's legit. However if my luck is really that bad then whatever it's life but what are the honest odds.

Originally posted by kwhero:

Just bad luck/your brain remembering failures more prominantly than successes. My recorded test rates have always averaged out to right where they should be.

[gareeth]

Try keeping track. As I think even if math is not your thing so what I said about the properties of random probability having the expected result over a larger sample is actually true and thus you should see that eventually. ( Or you can get an app that demonstrates it)

For what it's worth I just had 15 successful rushes in a row even when the failure rate got way up there. ( Was in a hurry to get a lunch box as that vault had no weapons - none )

That falls at the happier end of an unexpected distribution although I was sleepy and desperate or I wouldn't have broken my holy if you have a one in three chance of an incident don't do it.

It clearly bothers you which is why I think keeping track might help as if you can prove to yourself that it's just following the principles of a random distribution it won't just help in this game but in every game where you might feel your propiation to the RNG was insifficient to earn their favour.

[TRJoker]

The rates are cheating you, the lower the rate is, the more it cheats you.
Our friend kwhero knows that, he did only test rates above 75%, cause he was to lazy to do a real test, but he still tells his ♥♥♥♥ to the world.
From 80% failrate on the numbers start to get real, below this mark, as said, they get the more uncorrect the lower they are.
With a failrate of between 15 and 25% you fail in about 45% of all tries.

[kwil]

Originally posted by TRJoker:

The rates are cheating you, the lower the rate is, the more it cheats you.
Our friend kwhero knows that, he did only test rates above 75%, cause he was to lazy to do a real test, but he still tells his ♥♥♥♥ to the world.
From 80% failrate on the numbers start to get real, below this mark, as said, they get the more uncorrect the lower they are.
With a failrate of between 15 and 25% you fail in about 45% of all tries.

There's a saying about assuming, you know...

Anyway, just after this thread was posted, I did another batch of 50 rolls. Lower percentages are harder to get a high number of results for because you have to wait ten minutes in between for cooldown, but I managed to get 25 rolls at both 30% and 35%. For the 35%, the number of failures averaged a bit higher than expected, at 42%. But at 30%, the failure rate was at a ridiculously low 9%. I was honestly frustrated that I wasn't getting more failures because I was thinking that no one would believe me when I say it was that low.

I know what I'm doing. And I feel that collecting even more results would be a waste of time. It's okay to be wrong. Let it go.

[TRJoker]

You are lying obviously.
Last thing i say to this.

You should listen to your own words, its ok to be wrong, you dont have to lie.
But everbody can list lets say more then 250 tries and then make his own mind.
I did learn one thing in 30+ years of gaming.
Never trust a dev and even less trust a fanboy.

[kwil]

Originally posted by TRJoker:

You are lying obviously.
Last thing i say to this.

You should listen to your own words, its ok to be wrong, you dont have to lie.
But everbody can list lets say more then 250 tries and then make his own mind.
I did learn one thing in 30+ years of gaming.
Never trust a dev and even less trust a fanboy.

Believe me, if I felt I was wrong, I'd have no problem saying so. But I'm just here to tell people what I know, and I'd rather spend my time playing better Fallout games than arguing with someone that gets this worked up over a dumb game mechanic. Don't make mountains out of molehills. It truly does. Not. Matter.

[gareeth]

Take a math class. Unless you run 1000 or more tests you won't get the expected distibution. That's the very definition of random probability.

Or as it is easier to demonstrate this with an app get one of the many apps that can simulate dice rolling and you will find rush is about as rigged as dice are. The larger the sample the closer you get to the expected distribution.

I get that it is in a way more satisfying to feel the game is rigged against you but that's not how random probability ( and in this case we are throwing in weighted) works.

I'm actually having the opposite problem as I need to handle 75 incidents for a lunch box and I am having way too many successes. Over time of course I will a hit a time where I have more failure as that is probable as over rushes done I will move closer to the expected distribution and so the run of "good luck" will need to be offset.

Many games use random number generation either weighted or not or both so you guys must feel like all your games are out to get you.

Math is fair.

Your rush is not rigged.

[TRJoker]

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥, nobody did say that math is not fair.
Math is fair, but Devs are not ... or better to say, Devs may fool you for many reasons.
But I wont discuss anymore.
Just had again 7 fails below 20% in a row.
So if you are such a math genius, you may do the math behind it and tell me how possible this is, if the numbers you get from the engine would be true.
Try to roll 7 times 1 on a 5 sided dice in a row and then tell me thats normal.
I dont say its impossible, but, and thats the point, it happens not once a lifetime you play this game, it happens nearly daily that you get rows of fails which are nearly impossible if the numbers devs tell you would be true.
But you nearly never have rows on the sucess side, I even did not manage till now, and did try very often, to get more then 4 sucesses in a row above 50% failchance.
So, dont tell ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥.
I like the game, I dont care that the devs fool me, its part of the game, but to say they dont is just ... stupid.

[kwil]

Conspiracy theorists, man...

[rexpiscator]

Check the Luck Skill level of your workers first. I've found rushing to work most of the time for me.... All workers have high Luck skill, and they usually are successful. Now, my water plant and cafeteria workers don't have the training and they usually fail more readily than my Med teams[who all have full LUCK skill]. Cause I'm always rushing them to get more Meds for my Explore Teams and Random Encounters...

[HavokVonFaust]

I have a massive power outage, I have 4 or 5 power rooms with less than 30% fail rate. I try to rush them all... all failures with radscorpions attacks, now I have most of the rooms without power and many of my dwellers with massive rads and injuries.
I can understand being unlucky, but failing EVERY SINGLE rush with 23 to 27% failure rate is absolute ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥!!!!