Enchanting Rates???

[Destru# LiDL FazeClan MLG Winner]

So im kinda pissed and feeling like the enchanting system is rigged.
I have been trying to enchant a Blackstar mainhand weapon now for over 2 months.
I have used insane amounts of cron stones and my enchant rate is about 9%.
I have done 35-40 Enchant attemps so far and its 100% rigged that a dice roll wont land on 91 out of 40 times..
Imagine a dice with 10 heads 10,20,30 up to 100.
And every enchant is a roll. So 1 in 10 rolls should be a 90, now 40 rolls and not a single 90??
Even on the enchant calculator online it succeds atleast one every 10 attemps.
Is this a bug or should i contact the support?

[Proctor Cain]

The Geometric Distribution applies to what you are doing. Wikipedia has a reasonable treatment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

Mean attempts to succeed is 1/0.09 = 11.1

Probability to succeed in one attempt is of course 9%.

Probability to succeed in 25 or fewer attempts is 1 - (1 - 0.09)^25 = 0.905 , or equivalently, the probability to succeed in more than 25 is 9.5% which is about the same as succeeding in 1.

So your experience is unlikely but certainly not impossible assuming the outcome of an attempt is determined in a manner analogous to rolling a 10 sided die, or tossing a biased coin where probability of a head say is 9%.

Have you some idea of how things have gone for you in your total BDO enhancement adventure? I E always much more attempts than average, or less than average?

[Average Juice Enjoyer]

Just gonna drop it in here, i one clicked a TET to PEN dandy with a 1% chance and no cron stones by mistake as i mis-clicked on it. Then after with 0 enhancement i one clicked a TRI to TET Kutum sub weapon :) you are just unlucky

[Proctor Cain]

Originally posted by Xmas Vibes:

Just gonna drop it in here, i one clicked a TET to PEN dandy with a 1% chance and no cron stones by mistake as i mis-clicked on it. Then after with 0 enhancement i one clicked a TRI to TET Kutum sub weapon :) you are just unlucky

Do you have experience of bad luck too?

[Average Juice Enjoyer]

Originally posted by Proctor Cain:

Originally posted by Xmas Vibes:

Just gonna drop it in here, i one clicked a TET to PEN dandy with a 1% chance and no cron stones by mistake as i mis-clicked on it. Then after with 0 enhancement i one clicked a TRI to TET Kutum sub weapon :) you are just unlucky

Do you have experience of bad luck too?

No the most i have ever failed for enhancing is twice in a row which is very very common as far as i'm aware - it was trying for a TRI to TET

[Larten Crepsley]

its just bad luck... im in the same boat and have been playing sinse na launch on my main account (purchased via the website client)..... still no tets or pens made myself. the only tets i have are purchased via the market (not included the pen tuvula i got via season servers -those are easy as heck to rank up)

and you want to talk about bad luck... ive gone to all the bosses hundreds of times sinse launch... just got my first boss gear drop last night..... so yeah ... some people are lucky... some have horrible luck... for most its in the middle im guessing.... its not rigged, its just rng

[Proctor Cain]

Originally posted by Motivated Gamer:

No the most i have ever failed for enhancing is twice in a row which is very very common as far as i'm aware - it was trying for a TRI to TET

Succeeding a TET Boss enhancement in three goes would be very very common if it is very very common that a starting failstack of the order of 145 and no Crons are used. There is a about a 70% chance for succeeding in three or less in that case. Starting at 50 you get 34%. I think you have been lucky if you've been succeeding consistently below the averages.

[Arzog]

90% CHANCE does not mean that you are going to get 1 out of 10.

[[FuFo] Mortucus]

its rng mate thats all it is i had 141 fail stacks trying to get a TET i started useing crons then and it still took 11 tries
then yesterday i log in and tet my ofhand in 3 tries at 60 fs
and its not a 10 sided dice

[Destru# LiDL FazeClan MLG Winner]

But thats exactly the point.
You got it in 11 tries, statistically thats accurate. Now imagine you wouldent get it in 40 cron attempts, it would be fishy right?
it looks more of a bug or glitch that rolling a die 40 times wont end on 90 a single time rather than bad luck. Bad luck would be like not getting it in 20 or 25 attempts, but 40? is abit wierd.
--
According to the enchant simulator i linked its a die based system in a way.
10/20/30/40/50 to 100.
If you klick enchant, you get a random number between 1-100. If you have 10% succes rate then its 1/10 klicks a succes ( statistically ) Ofc you can have bad luck and not get it in 10 attempts.
But 40 times in a row? It seams luck is out of the picture and it just seams rigged.

[bloody-nine]

It is a casino algorythm rigged for the house to win.
I cant say for sure if it has cash related variables based on your spending history but with P2W players "invested" in £200k plus "worth" of gear expect to fail and often.

The enhancing system is my least favorite thing about this game.

So many classes to master and enjoy, but for some reason the devs have so little faith in the product as a whole we have the enhancing system

The game is at a point where a lot of people behind the gear curve are debating the grind vs the lifespan of the game. Im all for earning my ♥♥♥♥ but not getting carpel tunnel to earn PEN gear in a game that destroyed its self by P2W

I love BDO combat ect but this financial structure will always end up hurting those who invested the most time and cash

[Proctor Cain]

Recapping; the scenario is attempting enhance using Crons with probability of success (p) 9%.

The Crons stop gear degrading on fail and failstack doesn't increase, meaning p is constant.

The probability of succeeding in 40 or less attempts is

1 - (1 - 0.09)^40 = 0.977

which means the probability of succeeding in more than 40 is 2.3%. That's not impossible.

There would be thousands of players worldwide attempting enhancements with similar parameters every day, and with a p of 2.3 % of being handed the sh*t end of the stick, you can expect 10, 20, 30 a day will get it.

Actually I'm also curious about your use of Crons in this Blackstar enhancement. Is this someones recommendation?