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I for one am more of the trial-and-error type and I believe it's pretty easy to get a flourishing town going. Here is what I do: build a house - assign jobs - check hunger rate: if ppl get hungry, add more farmers/fishermen etc - repeat. When you more-or-less follow this cycle, you should be on the safe side.
Oh, and always keep about 5-10% unemployed, so you have some slack when you really need to assign some specific jobs.
You can do it :)
I also had big cities with thousands of residents and trial and error always was enough. You increase your city bit by bit, year for year and therefore you realise if you make a surplus of food or if you get into the reds. And even if I get into the reds for one year I don`t really mind much because I always have some reserves and produce a little more than I normally need. In reality you also can`t plan how much you harvest down to the gramm. Sometimes the harvest is good, sometimes it is bad. Not evne in the 21th century we can see into the future how the weather will be in a month or two and if the crops are going to be plentiful this year or not. See it as a realistic touch.
Swineheards consume 30 wheat and produce 72 porks, Butchers consume 1 tool to prepare 3 pork servings.
I usually dont bother with fishmongers until i have a steady production of tools going.
Bakeries are the most useful building imo, they are cheap and multiply wheat output x3. The only problem is that paesants dont seem to prioritize bread over wheat, which is hella annoying.
https://kingdomsandcastles.fandom.com/wiki/Food
I made a test for consumptionrate for 100,200,300 and 600 pop
At 600 I had the best ratio between consumption and production. Slight overproduction but not to much
I build 10 mills with fields 10 orchards and 9 swineheards (without working butcher) 4 charcaol with 1 forester (i just build manors cause the are the most efficient and need less coal)
I also sclaed it up to 1,2k and it just works fine