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Again, I think that was Tsumugi's original plan, probably going to tie his Ultimate ability into the game somehow. Hell, there was probably an entire storyline based around his true ultimate ability. Those clues to the vault in his room were also scattered at random, and I'd wager that they were supposed to be found by Rantaro, or were supposed to be used by him to reveal some big twist. Alas, Tsumugi's plan fell through.
1. Show that there were more than 3 killing games.
2. Display irony that the ultimate adventurer/survivor dies first. Kind of like in Danganronpa 2, where the ultimate imposter, who took on a leadership role, got killed first.
Funny that you mention the ultimate imposter, because Kaede took a total Terteru approach to the mastermind, and Rantaro took the imposter approach. Both died in chapter 1.
She has the Ultimate Hope, and the Ultimate Detetctive stand ins in her game. She deliberately baits the ultimate detective with the monopad to come to her secret library room(and importantly, leaves her secret second entrance to her secret room off the monopad). And she delieberately makes him suspicious of everyone, over and above anything as he would already be as a logical and suspicious person.
Then Tsumugi makes the Death Road, because Kaede's Ultimate Hope would be useless there. It actually served to splinter the group.
The actions of Kaede are less able to be controlled, from this point on. But it is true that all of Tsumugi's planning would lead Rantaro to be alone in the library to do whatever she wanted, which is perfect for Tsumugi because she is willing to fake evidence, and have Monokuma declare the wrong person to be the murderer. Tsumugi can plant whatever evidence she wants, because nothing would stop her. You might say that Tsumugi was constricted by Shuichi, but that's only because he found the door. If Shuichi did not find the door and have the cameras, then Tsumugi was completely free to walk into the library through the secret entrance, kill Rantaro, and plant evidence and nobody would ever know, because Tsumugi was just in the bathroom.
And as we saw, Kaede's plan was the perfect foil. Tsumugi got to take a real murder plan, and make it look like it worked. And the bonus was it pulled Kaede down with it. And remember, Shuichi is just a guy who helped solve a police case once. He isn't Kyoko. Rantaro is the Kyoko type person. Rantaro also, because of his knowledge, would be acting suspiciously the entire time, which would perhaps make someone fearful enough to kill. And also, Rantaro would go somewhere alone, with a purpose, and possibly be caught finding a secret entrance. Which would seem suspicious again. And also, the First kill is free.
Remember, Tsumugi baited Rantaro twice. Rantaro's pad says the mastermind would have to go to a room to make another Monokuma. So Monokuma was destroyed once, by accident, by a Monokub really early into the game. But this didn't draw Rantaro in. So she tried again, by having the time limit in which everyone would die. Because the important part is that this time limit would be enforced by the construction of many Monokumas. Which means, once again, the mastermind has to go to their secret room to make more Monokumas. So with the stakes higher, and Rantaro up to a point where he decides he knows enough to take action, and knows he must take action, goes into the library this time to catch the mastermind.
So Tsumugi has the oportunity, because she can hear and see everything, to know what everyone is thinking or planning. She know where everyone is, and possibly what they are planning, so she can take one of their actions and locations, and build murder evidence around it. So she is perfectly able to to pull someone in to this library location to witness Rantaro finding the secret door. Or something like that. Tsumugi is walking around the game floor. She can influence the players to a very large degree. She can take people where ever she wants, or tell them to go places. Tsumugi isn't Junko, who sits outside the game. So Tsumugi can set up whoever she wants to see Rantaro looking for the secret room, and then goad or encouarge them to kill Rantaro. Obviously it's risky, but that is part of these games, and Tsumugi was getting more desperate at this time.
One other great option, is for Tsumugi to get someone else to go into the library rooom alone, and maybe indicate the hidden door, and say that the mastermind might try to go in there. They would go in, and Rantaro would find them, assume they were the mastermind and probably kill them Rantaro knows what is at stake, because he remembers the Tragedy. Or the other person would try to kill Rantaro. Both would have a reason to kill. And Tsumugi can pass this message or hint on using Monokuma, or the Monokubs accidentally reveal it or something. The person Tsumugi sends in could even be Kaede. Puhuhuh. Actually, Maki would be perfect to send in after Rantaro.
It would all depend on what Tsumugi felt the mood of the various people were, and how events had arranged themselves, for Tsumugi to make the final decision of who and whether to send someone.
Also, the first blood perk. It's relevant because it makes a person announce they are the murderer to prevent a class trial. So if Tsumugi sets it up so someone thinks they are the blackened. That person will say they are, and leave. And nobody will get to investigate the evidence. This could even work on someone who didn't murder Rantaro. They would just say they murdered someone to leave. And nobody would get to investiagte and see if they did do the murder.
If someone like Kyoko knew about, and lived through, the tragedy, and found the mastermind, do you think she would have much problem killing them? Especially right at the start of the game and before she had formed any trust whatsoever with Makoto? Especially if she had a short time limit to do it in, before everyone in the Class was killed.
Monokuma: "Oh well, what a waste. I can't believe that idiot killed him."
This makes it sound like Rantaro's murder was not planned by Monokuma, but rather something Tsumugi decided on her own. She was in the game and she felt personally threatened by his presence, so she decided to go against Team DR's script and kill him herself.
Further evidence for this is Monokuma's behaviour in trial 6. While Tsumugi is about to get revealed as the mastermind, Monokuma is far more calm than in DR1. Also he does not dissappear once the mastermind stands revealed. I think they are two seperate actors. One side planned for Rantaro to live on and reveal his talent himself, the other killed him of early on.
Why would Tsumugi feel threatened by Rantaro? Even if she had no say who goes into the killing game, Rantaro's personality/ultimate shouldn't be a surprise to her. He found the secret door he was never going to open. Tsumugi killed Rantaro because of the motive- someone must die before the time limit or everyone dies. Which was yet another mistake TDR made, that motive was too much to lose and little to gain. If the motive worked, okay great. If it failed, 1. they either had to kill everyone and end the game too quickly, or 2. If they didn't kill everyone, it would be an empty threat, and Kaede and friends would continue their bonding. Both options would make the viewers unhappy. So by Tsumugi's choice or TDR's instructions, they resorted to cheating to get them out of a pickle.
And I also don't think that the first motive would have killed everybody. In trial 6 they tried to go with a narrative that everybody volunteered to join, so they would have an excuse like: "I just said those forced to participate woud die. But none of you are forced to do it so you all get to live" Making them all question why they would volunteer to join. That revelation would be intersting for the viewers too.
I think that you are correct on the "Rantaro knows too much", but I think that has to do with how much he knew because of his perk. She probably intented for him to know too much from the start, to make everyone else distrust him (if he idn't die, everyone would've found it suspicious that he knew where the mastermind's hidden door was). In a way, she did feel threatened by bhim, because she put too much risk into this one character. I bet you that Ranatro's memories were on some sort of accelereated timer, and that he would learn more faster. He probably would have known who the mastermind was by chapter 3, but due to some strange turn of events, wouldn't be able to act on that knowledge, or would try to kill her.
The I can offer a few possible explanations for Tsumugi's actions. As a comment on the first game. To prove her superiority. And make it exciting for the Despair filled people. If she can crush the ultimate hope and ultimate detective chaarcters at their heights, with total advantage on their side, she has certainly proved her ability to provide an interesting and despair filled show, and her skill in manipulation.
Tsumugi had her Ultimate hope and Ultimate detective characters. And she laid the death road expliclty for Kaede, I'm guessing. So she can crush the ultimate hope. This worked on the player too. Or it did on me, atleast.
And she allows the ultimate detective type to keep all their knoweldge, in opposition to Kyoko. And she lets him keep his knowledge of the Tragedy, so he knows what is coming in the Killing Game.
But Tsumugi was still able to trap Rantaro. Tsumugi used mostly truth to manipulate Rantaro, and serve as a motive. When I first played, I had the feeling that Rantaro knew more than he was letting on. but that got buried under the rest of the story. When I went through the early parts again, I remembered that feeling. It wasn't something I could identify as arising from any evidence in particular, and I couldn't define what it was at the time. It was just a feeling.
I suspect it is also a comment to the players. Because the player is ready for this game. The player is filled with Hope, ready for the despair. And the player knows what is coming, but that knowledge can potentially trap the player, because the game isn't following the same rules. Kaede's Hope wasn't enough by itself. And that hits the player. Rantaro's knowledge wasn't enough, because despite his apparent knowledge and apparent calm, he wasn't able to do anything by himself.
I remember Shuich constantly hammering home the trust element after Rantaro's death. He kept saying, if only Rantaro trusted others, like Shuichi trusted Kaede, then maybe everything would be alright. So it also comments on an important part of the series, which is trust. The Ultimate Hope and Ultimate Detective needed trust to acomplish anything, Like Makoto and Kyoko. And that trust was hard won and was forged through their actions across Danganronpa 1.
But this stuff is still questionable, if people want to question it. But even in the absence of more evidence, or contrary opinion, I don't see myself changing from this posiiton. I assumed that I got to the truth because I was actually able to find coherent author intent behind what happened :) That might be kind of cheating?
That's probably not very good evidence for other people :) I've been looking for this for a while. ;)
To be fair, I got here legitimately. But that's my final proof of it being correct. I don't know if there is anything else to prove it?
So feel free to debate. But I'm pretty happy with where I am with this point.
I'm not necessarily finished for ever or anything. But I feel confident I got alot right.
You say you're done theorizing, but there is one thing we haven't discussed on the thread yet and I've been pondering about: during the 6th trial Tsumugi claimed that she wrote the events of the entire Killing Game, and the example she used was Kaito's sickness and Maki's love for Kaito. But if she wrote the events of the Killing Game, then why did Kaito's execution fail? You say Ouma messed up the Killing Game, but as soon as Kaito decided to jump out of the Exisal and reveal it was Kaito who was alive and not Ouma, his plan failed. Everything after that would've seemingly gone normally, but Kiibo then lost his antenna, which set everything off its rails. So her claiming to have written the events of the Killing Game means she wrote the execution failing, including what happened to Kiibo...which goes even farther to her writing her own death. ( since she wrote his sickness, which made his execution fail )
This also messes with the events of Chapter 1 because this would mean she wrote all of Kaede's actions and the outcome that occurred afterwards.
And you could easily say, " well Tsumugi must've been lying about writing the events of the game " but that doesn't explain how Kaito did end up sick, how Maki fell for him, and many other things that stem out from that. For example, in order for Maki to fall for him, Shuuichi would've had to bond with Kaito after losing Kaede, and they would've had to have a whole bunch of Nighttime Training Meet-Ups. Maki specifically stated that the reasons she fell for Kaito were because he called her Maki Roll and kept trying to get her to work with the group, treating her like a normal person. ( she said, " I've never met someone as stubborn as you " implying that he was always hopeful and pushing for her to work with the group and against her fears ).
Just something I wanted to bring up.
There are only three reasons I can think of:
1. She thought Kiibo would end up voting for it to continue
2. Tsumugi would be the only one left, or Tsumugi would have everyone else survive and she would die. ( because if she voted for herself it would be correct and she would die, [ majority overrules and she would end up dying of no one else voted ] but if she didn't vote for herself then she would be the only one left and they would all get executed. )
or 3. She wanted her Killing Game to fail just like Junko's games.
Option number 1 kind of makes sense because she was betting on the outside world/Kiibo voting and continuing the game.
Option number 2 is confusing maybe she would want that, or maybe she wouldn't. She could've easily chosen that option and continued the game.
Option number 3 doesn't make the most sense because when no one votes she is surprised, showing she didn't expect the outside world/Kiibo to vote, and she was a little relieved that it turned out just like Junko's. ( hence why she said that it turned out that she was the perfect copycat criminal )
Looking back on the trial, she specifically states she is prepared to die to continue the Killing Game. So option number 2 is basically out...
Option 1 made the most sense because the entire time after they voted she goes on about all the options of Kiibo voting on anyone. So....option 1 was the reason she didn't vote. She was betting on the fact that Kiibo/the outside world would vote on someone and that would continue the Killing Game.
Also, before the voting is shown Tsumugi presents an idea of what the next Killing Game would be like, " Hope has won but the lone survivor, Kiibo, remains trapped...Now he'll challenge the Killing Game anew. Will he be able to grasp true hope...? ".
Could be a hint to UDG2 if you look at it from a little bit of a different perspective.
" Neither hope nor despair has won but the lone survivors, Shuuichi, Maki, and Himiko, were able to escape the Killing Game. Now they must face the realities of the outside world. Will they be able to overcome the truth of what lies beyond...? ".
I don't know, xD.
I can believe that Tsumugi wrote the events of the killing game, that she wrote the initial game plan. After all, since it is a entertainment broadcast, there is probably some scripting involved between her and TDR. That said, the characters themselves, while they may be "designed" to act a certain way, should still have free will, which can be unpredictable at times. My opinion on Kaito's failed execution, he looked like he's been trying to hold on to his life for a while, partly because of Ouma's plan on trial 5. So he kind of let go right before he was executed as his final retaliation to Monokuma.
On random note, I skimmed trial 5 again. Someone probably mentioned this, but Monokuma said, " You guys are more replaceable than you think." I don't consider Monokuma to be a liar. Sure he may bend the rules, but he tries not to break them for the most part. I just recalled that some people were bringing up the theory that they all actually had ultimates on the real world. It does not seem that Monokuma had a reason to lie about that kind of thing at that time.
Remember my theory is that everyone has their intact memory and personality. All that happened was they got their memory removed back a year or so, like danganronpa 1 and 2, and Tsumugi filled those gaps in with flashback light lies, which includes their being told they were ultimates. So everything happend basically as it would if those people were in that situation, which was real, and those flashback lights really happened, which they didn't. But their reactions were real. Everything they remember which wasn't directly shown in the game was real.(except parts of Kiyo, I believe)
Gonta, based on the information ,sacrificed him self for the others. His sacrifice is still real, and his reasons able to be read heroically(despite hte murder), even if the information it was based on was not.
Kaito would have gotten sick during the Tragedy. So that way, he doesn't remember receiving it. Tsumugi offers no flashback light to explain it. Maki fell in love normally.
Tsumugi definately manipulated events. But she did not directly control the actions of the V3 class
Tsumugi's claim is of writing the characters is the most ridiculous, as how can you write somebody's actions, except through manipulation. You can't actually take control of the sentience of another person. If you could they cease to be a person. Tsumugi doesn't have that power. At most Tsumugi could claim she caused these emotional changes through putting them in the killing game environment.
And I assume that Kaito jumped out of the exisal because Shuichi had basically proven Kaito was alive and the blackened. It was a gamble based on what Monokuma thought. In a last ditch lie, Shuichi says Kaito is dead, to swing everyone to vote the wrong way. But whether everyone gets killed is based on Monokuma's decision.
Shuich proved that Kaito was alive. And then at the last minute lied the other way. If Monokuma believed Katio was the murderer, based on all of Shuichi's evidence, and the v3 class split or voted for Kokichi as the blackened, then Monokuma would kill everyone. And Kaito would survive, by himself.
Kaito didn't want to take the risk. He would prefer to ensure he died alone and everyone else survived, especially considering he wasn't going to last long with his sickness anyway. And, I think, Kaito likes the truth anyway. He says as much at the end. That Shuichi should push through beyond the truth. And that Kaito believe Shuichi would be able to reach the truth.
For the second part, Tsumugi was willing to accept the audience's vote, because she had made her case throughout the game. She had shown a full Killing Game to an audience of Despair filled people across the world. And the rule of television is that it needs an audience to continue.
Tsumugi is something more like a fan trying to continue the work, rather than the instigator. She is a super fan. Tsumugi loves the despair, and she thought everyone else would too. So she gave it to them. And if the audeince all decided they didn't love despair anymore and changed their minds, then Tsumugi wasn't going to change hers as well. And it meant she well and truly failed. Because she managed to turn despair filled people away from despair. So it was an 'honourable' exit, in a way. Also, Tsumugi specifically says she doesn't want to live in a world without Killing Games. And she just did a great job ensuring that another Killing Game never happens.
About Monokuma saying they were replacable.
According to my theory, Tsumugi could take anyone that looks interesting, and has some talent no matter how little, and tell them they are ultimates by giving them a flashback memory of official recognition of their talents. Because that is what she did with the V3 class.
( I am just confirming certain statements of your theory )