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I really hope ths game takes place after 2nd game and Tsumugi was lying and cospox is hoax. I don't want to have another Mass Effect 3 here when people gave a way too much credit for the story and came up with all kinds of indoctrination theories only to find out later that simply was the ending, which was so bad the devs bent and made extended cut later.
Because if the game ends here it makes other games and anime seasons irrelevant and leaves all loose ends completely open what happened in them. Monaca and Nagito are still out there, the world is still screwed. I want first chapter Ultra Despair Girls 2 easter egg be true and tie this game to 2nd game, which would be amazing plot twist and the game could go to anywhere from there.
I started Danganronpa by watching pre-season and 3rd season simultaneously, then played all the games starting from Danganronpa 1 so my memory was a bit messed of the timeline.
1) Tsumugi mentions that the outside world is a world at peace. However, when pre-Ultimate Kaede recalls being kidnapped, she mentions "how rotten the world is". What they say do not match.
2) Rantaro Amami. He would apparently be the "Ultimate Survivor", someone who would've survived (at least) one of the Killing Games between the 3rd to the 52nd. If that is true, it would explain why he seemed to recognize the situation, even as a pre-Ultimate. However, what's surprising is that the others in the room should at that point in time be hardcore Danganronpa fans who volunteered to join the Killing Game. Why, in that case, are none of them recognizing Rantaro? The footage at the trial about what happened after that point, where they are all glad to be chosen for the Killing Game, should clearly mean they remember Danganronpa at that moment, yet Kaede's reaction when she meets Rantaro is... lackluster, to say the least. Their behavior doesn't match the situation Tsumugi describes they are in, which severely puts into question whether the footage she showed is even real to begin with.
3) Tsumugi is among the students in the Prologue. Looking past everything she says in the sixth trial, this would mean, if we consider at least the basis of what she says as true, that she herself is also a character built for the sake of the game. If that's true, then her own memories are just as unreliable as the rest of the cast. In other words, what she vehemently believe to be the truth may very well contain some lies after all.
4) Shuichi's and Miu's personalities somewhat stand out during the Prologue. Shuichi's behavior does not fit the footage shown to us during the trial, and Miu's personality is, well... Miu's; there's no distinction between the personality she has at that point and the one she has throughout the rest of the game. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to the rest of the cast.
5) When asked whether they are Ultimates by the Monokubs, Kaede says she is not an Ultimate, but does mention having a talent she devotes herself to. This is a weird detail to add to her lines, especially given how much it'd fit well into the Ultimate Hunt description given to us and how they escaped from it.
As for the points concerning Cospox, I cannot provide a definitive answer on whether that is the truth or a lie, but I agree that a lot of Tsumugi's statements rely on that being the truth; if it were a lie, Danganronpa's cast being fictional would be brought back into question, which would also bring back into question most conclusions reached during the trial.
2. I think you are missing an important detail that the Monokubs messed up the first flashback light. The flashback scene when they were happy they were chosen (in the gym) is the first time they met each other. They don't interact with each other iirc, they just say they are happy to be there. Then the Monokubs wipe their memories to start the game. Then what was suppose to happen is that they are given their backstory and ultimates from the start, but the Monokubs forgot give their ultimates + clothes. This is the epilogue you see, so at this point, they won't know Rantaro.
3. It is possible that Tsumugi is also a fake character, but she may also have exempted herself since the beginning. She is like the overseer of this game afterall, and she was already aware of the outside world. The flashback lights wouldn't work on her since she already knows everything.
4. Same as point 2. The prologue you see, everyone already has their personality implanted.
5. Kind of contradicts my point 2, when Kaede says she doesn't have a ultimate but devotes to a talent, that is a weird comment to make at that point when her memory should've been erased. So I will speculate that at the prologue, everyone's memories is not fully wiped. Since the Monokubs messed up on giving their ultimates, they may have also not fully wiped their memories. Because Kaede says something like, "Wait, so you are the Monokubs, that means..." So she does remember some things she shouldn't have.
The Monokubs indeed messed up the first Flashback Light, however the scene at the gym when they were chosen is definitely the same as the Prologue, that's both told by Tsumugi during the trial and shown by the fact that the gym scene starts with the exact same dialogue lines the Prologue ends with. That's no mistake, those two scenes are connected to each other, and it confirms they should have remembered Rantaro's identity (yet they clearly didn't).
(I assume you probably don't remember the exact lines from Tsumugi right before the cutscene (I didn't either, had to doublecheck xD), so here's a link to it. This link should bring you at the right moment in the video but in case it doesn't, it's at 2 hours, 26 minutes and 15 seconds.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poTc_5urQOU&ab_channel=justonegamr&t=8775s
Given what I mentioned for point 2, there's no mistake that she is a character herself, too. It does, however, points to her being subjected to a very different Flashback Light than the others were, at the very beginning. Still, there's no doubts her memories are the result of a Flashback Light like the others, which means they can be just as fake as everything else. (EDIT: Plus, after looking back at the trial once more, she actually admits she is a fictional character, too, meant to "bring excitement to the killing game". I guess that one wasn't a mystery at all, in the end)
They don't, for the reasons I referred at point 2. Those personalities should be their real ones.
According to Tsumugi's story (and, as mentioned in my explanation at point 2, the fact that both the Prologue and the gym scene she shows are connected), their memories shouldn't have been wiped out at that point, otherwise there's no way they would've recalled the Killing Game and Danganronpa in general. However, I do agree with you, that there's something weird definitely going on with their memories, that much is obvious from Kaede's dialogue before coming out of the locker. There's definitely a contradiction here, but the solution to that contradiction tends to point at Tsumugi's recording being falsified in some way, since that's the one explanation which ties everything else together.